Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[martywidget] 07/11/2017 10:23

Unstoppable Fevertree’s fizzing again
07 November 2017, 10:05

...Investec Securities explains: 'A driving force has been a very strong performance in the UK Having reported over 100% UK growth in the previous four half year periods, we had expected some degree of slowing, but growth has continued at a very healthy level in both the on- and off-trade.'

...‘For the full year, we expect the UK to grow by over 70% still. Despite some noise around competitor activity, Fever-Tree has been responsible for 97% of the growth in the UK retail mixer category over the previous 12 months (according to market data to the end of the third quarter).’...

...Shore Capital, analyst Phil Carroll writes: ‘Fevertree has issued a short trading update stating that strong momentum has continued across the business but especially in the UK and notably not in this instance as a function of distribution gains but more through strong rates of sales.’...

...Investec Securities’ Nicola Mallard reiterates her ‘buy’ rating and increases her Fevertree price target from £22.20 to £23.30. For 2017, Mallard’s top line forecast rises 6% to £158.3m (2016: £102.2m) – that’s 55% year-on-year revenue growth - but her pre-tax profit (PBT) estimate is upgraded by 11% to £54.5m (2016: £35m) ‘thanks to operational gearing benefits’.

For 2018, Mallard sees pre-tax profit bubbling higher still to £55.9m, though Fevertree’s sales growth rate is expected to slow to 15%, with earnings per share forecast to increase from 37.8p to 38.5p.

Shore Capital is ‘upgrading our forecasts which are already ahead of consensus going into today’s statement. Full year 2017 forecast revenue will increase to £158m from £154m but the leverage impact through the income statement is strong with PBT increasing to £53.3m from £50.5m. This equates to an increase in EPS of 6% to 37.4p from 35.4p.'

Based on Carroll’s estimates, Fevertree trades on a prospective price-to-earnings ratio north of 57 times. ‘We believe the valuation remains full although we expect the share to gain back some of the recent lost
ground’, writes Carroll.

‘The key point for us looking forward now is assessing the strength of momentum alongside the leverage potential with today’s upgrade achieved with a lower level of market spend than expected.

'This could suggest stronger profitability than is currently suggested in consensus expectations ahead of the delivery of strong than expected revenue growth. For now we retain our hold recommendation.'

[Read the whole article here]:

[martywidget] 07/11/2017 09:39

From earlier today, following the trading update:

Investec (Nominated Adviser and Broker) raises price target to 2330p from 2220p

Also, Fever-Tree had its 'hold' rating reiterated by investment analysts at Shore Capital.

[aimingupward2] 07/11/2017 09:23

“capturing 97% of its sales from UK.”

No, christh, that’s not what the rns said. Better for you to edit and correct it than me to report it accurately?

Edit, 9.46. - that’s better now, thank you.

[christh] 07/11/2017 08:39

Onwards now as the company is becoming stronger and stronger capturing 44% of its sales from UK.
Approximately 56 % of the Group's sales were derived from outside of the UK.



A force to be reckoned with and a threat to others as it a bigger slice of the drinks (mixers)market.
Who will be the most suitable candidate for merger or a takeover?

[juzzer100] 07/11/2017 08:23

Hehe, Villa!

[villarich] 07/11/2017 08:16

Only 23% to go before you break even Christh. Get googling those broker updates from July...

[sogoesit] 07/11/2017 08:06

Oof, that was a struggle to open. Not surprisingly.
Am now waiting RBC’s next analyst update. Lol

It is possible to segment a market so that there’s a 100% share (a monopoly) in that market. Of course, as demonstrated with Schhh...it, the profitability will attract competitors. How well it pans out we will have to wait and see.

[croasdalelfc] 07/11/2017 07:56

It's a trading update BEFORE their busiest period. A massive statement.

[juzzer100] 07/11/2017 07:54

Panic - yes, talking value growth. I wouldn't want to be working for Schweppes if FT had 97% of the market!

[panic investor] 07/11/2017 07:41

Value-growth not 97% of the entire market imho

[juzzer100] 07/11/2017 07:38

This is pretty impressive:The mixer category is now the fastest growing category across the UK soft drinks sector with Fever-Tree responsible for 97% of the value growth in retail over the last 12 months.That means that all the others including Fentimans account for just 3%!Re not mentioning other markets, fair enough but surely taking over the world is a longer term aim??

[christh] 07/11/2017 07:36

Rns out this morning
"Given the strong performance in the period to date, the Board anticipates that the results for the full year ending 31 December 2017 will be materially ahead of current market expectations."

So you now have it from the horse's mouth.

Price should recover to 2500 and climb upwards to 3000.
Strong growth will continue in 2018 and beyond.

[bookbroker] 07/11/2017 07:35

Not in this vill., but it is a short around £25!

[bookbroker] 07/11/2017 07:34

They are the only high street chain in the Food and Beverage category that is actually seeing real growth, seen the share price ‘juzzer’, up about 30% this year, the rest down about as much! They sell about 20 different types of gin, not had Fever Tree tonic or coke with Veuve Cliquot before, must try it!!🤡

[juzzer100] 07/11/2017 07:22

Took 4 minutes then. Wetherspoons??? A bottle of Fevertree is probably more than a pint there. :-) I am afraid Wetherspoons isn't FTs target market. Bet they don't sell much Verve Cliquot there either!

[villarich] 07/11/2017 07:21

Chill out bookbroker, it's a trading update. Have you never seen one before?

[leedskier] 07/11/2017 07:18

Amazing performance.

[sogoesit] 07/11/2017 07:15

And ahead of “current market expectations” which, I suggest, could be better than the previous “board’s expectations”.
Back to maturity at over 21 is my view.

[juzzer100] 07/11/2017 07:13

Yep. Wait for the "only materially ahead what is wrong with this share?" ;-)

[sogoesit] 07/11/2017 07:11

It’s that old “materially ahead” again.... Yawn ;-)

[juzzer100] 07/11/2017 07:08

Ah well RNS update came anyway!

[wallywalrus] 07/11/2017 07:04

Is good ya. Nice to cling on during the tree shakes.

[wetdream] 07/11/2017 05:49

And just for the record-Rekindling wins.
Some guy with a charity bet wins A$1m.....!!