Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[foxy22] 16/12/2019 14:20

Yes whippe...eHope it holds

[r9505571] 16/12/2019 13:43

It's on the charge now!

[lew stules] 13/12/2019 16:06

At the end of November the 20 day moving average broke through the 40 day which has been a good indicator of a sustained rise in the past with FXPO....

[oli12] 13/12/2019 15:15

From mid 120s to late 140s / early 150s.... in the last few weeks ... that’s a recent rise in my book.

[wanttowin] 13/12/2019 14:52

be good to hold 150, lets see.

[thags] 13/12/2019 14:06

It was down to 120 at one point and we've been teased alot for it to fall again. It's definitely undervalued it's only a matter of time before people realise

[harry3021] 13/12/2019 13:58

Recent rise lol? Is that a rise? Tell that to the owners who bought into it at 250p+

[oli12] 13/12/2019 12:48

Despite the recent rise and continued geopolitical risks, Ferrexpo is undervalued, the price of premium iron ore remains strong.

[meijiman] 13/12/2019 10:18

I would maintain this is a successful well managed company operating to international standards. It generates real cash and is able to pay a handsome dividend to holders. Only flies in the ointment are the fact that it hails from Ukraine and the ceo situation.

[r9505571] 13/12/2019 09:57

In 2018, the company produced 10.6 million tonnes of iron ore pellets. Could be on for another £1bn revenue year!

[bellbottom] 13/12/2019 09:24

Fitch upgrade to BB-

[nav_mike] 13/12/2019 09:02

Blimey....this certainly gets sold into aggressively on every spike

Still trending upwards but 158 to 151 in very short order does make me wonder who is so keen to sell

[wanttowin] 12/12/2019 08:21

next stop 200 please

[podgyted] 11/12/2019 13:20

IRC do 65% stuff as well so perhaps a good read-across.

[harry3021] 10/12/2019 14:15

London, 10 December 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") today changed the rating outlook
of Ferrexpo plc (Ferrexpo) to positive from stable. At the same
time Moody's affirmed Ferrexpo's corporate family rating (CFR) at B3 and
its probability of default rating (PDR) at B3-PD.




Today's rating action follows Moody's change of outlook on Ukraine's ratings
to positive from stable and affirmation of its long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Caa1. Ukraine's long-term
foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at B3 and
Caa2 respectively. For additional information on the sovereign
rating action, please refer to the related announcement: hxxps://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-Ukraines-outlook-to-positive-from-stable-affirms-Caa1--PR_413591.




RATINGS RATIONALE




The key drivers for the change in Ukraine's outlook to positive are:
(1) the rebuilding of Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves, which
is reducing external vulnerability in the context of large external repayments;
and (2) the improvement of Ukraine's macroeconomic stability and the prospect
for renewed reform momentum, which is strengthening the country's
economic resilience.




Ferrexpo's business profile and financial metrics are strong for
a B3 rating. However, its ratings remain constrained by Ukraine's
B3 foreign-currency bond country ceiling and Caa1 government bond
rating, which reflects its exposure to the political, legal,
fiscal and regulatory environment of Ukraine, where all of its processing
and mining assets are located.




Despite its inherent exposure to the price volatility of iron ore and
commodity cycle as well as some geographic and customer earnings concentration,
Ferrexpo's business profile is underpinned by its competitive cost position,
improving sales mix and strong relationships with blue chip clients.




Following the material deleveraging achieved in the past three years thanks
to sustained positive free cash flow (FCF) generation, Ferrexpo
exhibits low leverage and strong financial metrics for a B3 rating.
In 2019, Moody's expect Ferrexpo to report EBITDA of around
$560 million and adjusted total debt to EBITDA close to 0.8x
at year end. Looking ahead, assuming an iron ore 62%
fines price of $75/tonne, pellet premiums of $35/
tonne, capex of around $140 million and dividends of $120
million, Ferrexpo should generate FCF of around $70 million
in 2020, with adjusted gross leverage close to 1.0x at year-end.




ESG CONSIDERATIONS




While Moody's views the global mining industry as having elevated
emerging environmental risk, environmental considerations are not
a material factor in this rating action.




In the past year, Ferrexpo has been facing some corporate governance
challenges. In Moody's view, whilst these developments
do not have an immediate adverse effect on Ferrexpo's rating,
they act as a constraint on the rating.




In August 2019, an independent review concluded that none of Ferrexpo's
directors, management or employees have had any involvement in any
possible misappropriation of funds donated in the past to the Blooming
Land trust (a charity in charge of co-ordinating the group's
national CSR programme in Ukraine). It also re-affirmed
that Blooming Land was not a related party of the group, its 50.3%
controlling shareholder Kostyantin Zhevago, or its executive management.




However, Moody's notes that the independent review committee
(IRC) acknowledged that it had not been possible to explain a number of
discrepancies outlined in the 2018 annual report relating to Blooming
Land and its use of funds donated by Ferrexpo and indications therefore
remained that some of the funds could have been misappropriated.
The IRC stated in its report that the Board was considering further steps
in this regard.




More recently, Kostyantin Zhevago strongly rebutted media reports
alleging that he has received a notice of suspicion regarding an investigation
in Ukraine relating to Bank Finance and Credit JSC (Bank F&C) he owned
prior to its collapse in December 2015. While Kostyantin Zhevago
strongly denied receiving such notice and any allegations of wrongdoing,
he decided to step aside temporarily from his position of CEO in order
to avoid any possible distraction to Ferrexpo. He has been replaced
by Chris Mawe, who has been with Ferrexpo for 11 years lately as
CFO.




LIQUIDITY




Ferrexpo's liquidity is adequate. In addition to projected cash
balances of around $100 million at year-end 2019,
we expect the group to generate positive FCF under a range of iron ore
price and pellet premium assumptions, which should enable it to
meet the twelve equal quarterly amortisations of the 2017 Pre-Export
Finance (PXF) credit facility starting February 2020.




RATING OUTLOOK




The positive outlook on Ferrexpo's rating is in line with the positive
outlook on Ukraine's sovereign rating. It also reflects our expectation
that (i) the company will sustain a robust operating and financial performance;
and (ii) maintain an adequate liquidity profile and good access to debt
markets despite recent corporate governance challenges.




WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN




Moody's could upgrade the ratings of Ferrexpo if either Ukraine's sovereign
rating or foreign-currency bond country ceiling was upgraded,
assuming Ferrexpo does not suffer any material deterioration in its operating
and financial performance, and maintains a solid liquidity profile.




Moody's could downgrade the ratings of Ferrexpo if it were to downgrade
Ukraine's sovereign rating and/or lower the foreign-currency bond
country ceiling, or the companies' operating and financial performance,
market position or liquidity were to deteriorate materially.




PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY




The principal methodology used in these ratings was Mining published in
September 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.




Ferrexpo plc, headquartered in Switzerland and incorporated in the
UK, is a mid-sized iron ore pellet producer with mining and
processing assets located in Ukraine. The group has total Joint
Ore Reserves Committee Code (JORC) classified resources of 6.5
billion tonnes, around 1.3 billion tonnes of which are proved
and probable reserves. In 2018, the group achieved a pellet
production of 10.6 million tonnes and generated revenues of $1.3
billion. Ferrexpo is listed on the London Stock Exchange;
50.3% of its shares are held by Fevamotinico S.a.r.l,
a Luxembourg based holding company owned by Kostyantin Zhevago,
and the remaining is free float.

[r9505571] 10/12/2019 14:01

Bit of buying activity! Hopefully dividend statement due Imminently

[bellbottom] 10/12/2019 13:23

Moody's posts Positive Outlook for Ferrexpo.



BB

[podgyted] 10/12/2019 07:00

Suggests to me that FXPO is undervalued.

[r9505571] 09/12/2019 09:54

Iron ore price is over $90 for 62% over $100 for 65%

hxxps://price.metal.com/spots/MMi/201804260016
hxxps://price.metal.com/spots/MMi/201804260018

What is holding this share back???

[linton5] 09/12/2019 08:38

Think I’ll get in here very cheap looking to me anyway

[r9505571] 09/12/2019 08:28

Good lift Iron ore price! https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price

[bellbottom] 08/12/2019 16:24

Nice jacket Mr. Honcharuk!!

Sounds like negotiations are ongoing and amicable.



BB