Fd Technologies Public Share Discussion Threads

[algo1] 17/10/2018 06:21

Some background on BISTelhttps://m.scmp.com/country-reports/business/topics/south-korea-business-report/article/2134223/bistel-transforms

[simonadvfn2] 12/10/2018 21:27

Looks like the shorts are having to claw back their stock. After reading that report it is clear those people have no idea of the business. Yes they can quote accounting figures and yes they can smear management but one must remember elementary statistics, correlation is not causation and that is what they want to paint in their report. I don't think FD as they are known want to portray themselves as a software firm. They have traditionally been a consulting firm offering "consulting services to some of the world's largest finance, technology and energy institutions". Perhaps the analyst needs to review the literature and look at the case study of IBM to reflect on her judgement. Owning a technology and providing consultants is a good model. The technology is ingrained in finance, speak with any bank and you will quickly learn how ingrained it is, albeit Goldman who decided to try and replicate such a tech but failed..Their be tired arm is interesting. Imagine having a tech which solves alot of the challenges. It does not cost much to expose this in return for equity. As an addition to this, with a government grant it costs a little bit less. Dont be surprised if these investments start to pay off soon. Insight provided by prior readers, refer to company accounts, down of these companies are starting to see major increase in revenue. I'm not trying to portray a picture here, just trying to unjustify an idiotic report which sole purpose is trying to smear a company for its own interests. Investigate FD , but Investigate them too. Perhaps go to one of their tech event they hold .. it's a great way to see the insight and vision accomplished developers see in the technology.

[glavey] 12/10/2018 19:27

Danzo,
"but given the company has never experienced a downturn"

Not so, it was around in 2007-8-9.

[rochdae] 12/10/2018 13:47

Disgraceful what's happened here.

[bootycall] 12/10/2018 07:25

Moorsie2.

It does not surprise me about the award. I seem to remember they won another one last year. Normally the share price goes down after the award... not before it :)
On a serious note. Congratulations to Brian Conlon. Anyone who knows this man understands what a class act he is. Well deserved. I think First Derivatives moving forward will be quite shaken about this bear raid but I think they are sensible enough to learn from it. I would not be surprised if the auditors are changed and quite frankly so they should. I also expect a whole level off disclosure to be made at analysts results meetings, although this may take effect at the full year results to manifest itself properly.
The software industry does seed start ups. I understand FDP has made a few small investments by way of small amounts of cash or provision of user licenses in exchange for revenue share agreements etc., with some smaller start up to widen the applications using their database technology. I am sure it does not help commercially having to disclose all the minutiae to competitors but they need to reassure their investor base by a greater level of transparency . I hear one of these investments, Cobalt, whilst very small is extremely promising. I hope I have found the right company (and apologies if I have not )but the same company received financial backing from the Singapore Exchange as you can see from this Crunchbase link. Now that is the sort of research which I would like to see more of !
hxxps://www.crunchbase.com/organization/cobalt-dl#section-funding-rounds

[moorsie2] 12/10/2018 06:32

Last night the company won best Technology award at the annual AIM awards and Brian Conlon won the Entrepreneur of the year award!!

Screaming bargain at this price

[rochdae] 11/10/2018 16:33

Bought a few. FDP always struck me as a good company.

[moorsie2] 11/10/2018 12:02

well done. Great timing. Will prove to be a bargain in 6 months

[brahmsnliszt] 11/10/2018 11:46

i took in a load this morning as had some cash for an initial position. looks cheap - but then what is cheap ?lets see

[malcontent] 11/10/2018 10:12

This has halved in value on no news from the company

I have held FDP for 10 years and will continue to do so until the company tells me that the story has changed

I cannot say that I am not worried or that this hasn't hurt as FDP was my biggest holding in my SIPP

Oh the joys of investing in the stock market!

[moorsie2] 11/10/2018 07:11

This was issues back in April by an Analyst

Financials and Valuation (Forecasts Under Review) Year end: 28 February Target Price Basis

BUY
Price: 3830p
Target: 5000p
Forecast Total Return: 31.2%
2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenue (£m) 117.0 151.7 175.4 192.4 209.4
EBITDA (£m) 23.3 28.8 32.3 35.5 38.6
PBT (normalised) (£m) 16.8 20.8 22.8 25.3 27.7
EPS (norm. cont.) – FD (p) 51.7 61.2 67.0 73.5 79.9
DPS (p) 17.0 20.0 22.0 23.7 25.3
PE (normalised) (x) 74.1 62.5 57.2 52.1 47.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 45.2 36.5 32.5 29.6 27.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7

[algo1] 11/10/2018 06:52

Anyone got access to FY1819/ H1 analyst estimates?

[moorsie2] 11/10/2018 06:35

Notice of results issued with zero commentary.

I read this as a positive as if there was a gap they would be obliged to give a profits warning.
So the company is in line with market expectations and if their track record is anything to go by then ahead of the expectations modestly


I have not sold a share and won't.

[flybyknight] 10/10/2018 21:38

Moorsie and others. What is your red lines for pulling out ?
What are you entry points for further purchase ?

[moorsie2] 10/10/2018 15:56

Furious that management has not issued a statement before now!!!
They are due to announce this week this week the 3-4 week notice to half year results. Why they would not pull this forward to Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday morning this week is incredible

It is inconceivable to think that their numbers are a miss from market expectations with the large recruiting that they continue to do

[flybyknight] 10/10/2018 15:46

Another drop today. I thought look fine in morning
No statement from FDP management. Deeply worried

Moorsie still agree with
"A rerating is taking place temporarily"

f

[brokenbuckles] 09/10/2018 09:35

I'm in. I didn't read anything on the short note to scare me off. Main argument was about valuation given consultancy exposure. This is fair but even when it was a pure consultancy it traded between 20x and 30x (it does grow etc.). I didn't buy the vendor financing argument, I see fdp as simply taking stakes in companies which it hopes to buy one day if they find an application for their tech. The short note didn't find any issues with these companies themselves other than they were loss making. I would be more worried if these companies were cash shells (like Quindell). I don't buy the argument about weak competitive position (competitors have different databases). Most worrying part was the kpmg relationship. This can be rectified.

[bootycall] 09/10/2018 07:54

Just to add a little colour to the earnings quality of FDP ,who are achieving CAGR of 15% in their consulting division . Liberum have calulated that the peer group is calculated to achieve a CAGR of 6.4% between 2017/19. This includes companies like Accenture, Navigant etc., The only company coming close to FDP growth rate in consulting revenues in their peer group comparison is Gartner 13% trading on a PE of 43.

The software component of Liberum's forecast for FDP is a fraction under 64% for calendar 2019...with a CAGR forecast for 17/19 also of 15%. I do not see any reason on this basis to value First Derivatives as a "service company on a PE of 10". This argument is not a convincing one.

NB As far as I am aware Liberum is not stockbroker to FDP.

[moorsie2] 08/10/2018 19:33

Bootycall. I completely agree and they do not have the technology of Kx

A rerating is taking place temporarily

[bootycall] 08/10/2018 19:25

Moorsie2 look at Burford, Sophos, Blue Prism, etc., For the record, not a fan of WANDisco and Blue Prism is way overrated. I believe the collapse in some of the more highly rated tech stocks is one of the main reasons FDP has not stayed above £30 level. Fund managers are taking profits and sitting on the sidelines.

[moorsie2] 08/10/2018 18:11

Interesting to take a look at the charts of Fevertree and ASOS as well. There is a general market correction taking place with these highly successful companies..

WANDiscso, Numis, XL Media - three more who have dropped a lot in last 5 days

[bootycall] 08/10/2018 17:39

flybyknight

Thank you for your courteous response. Consultancy revenues obviously vary considerably in their nature. By way of comparison Gartner Group trades on 43 times earnings and their is plenty of consultancy earnings dressed up as subscription income in that baby.
hxxps://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/IT/gartner/pe-ratio

If you want to be ungenerous, according to Investopedia the average multiple for capital markets focussed service companies in the US was 18.8. FDP has of course much superior compound earnings growth and would attract a much higher rating on that basis.

[moorsie2] 08/10/2018 17:22

Flybyknight

I agree as a long term investor I would not be an objective viewer of the company however I am not purporting to to an independent financial journalist! Therefore you are being very disingenuous and should retract that ill thought through point