Fastjet Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 30/6/2017 14:47

Good volume today, do we think fresh blood, or some previous holders getting back in?

[depester] 30/6/2017 11:59

Summary forecasts
Source: Company historic data, Equity Development estimates
fastjet plc (excluding Fly540) 2013 Act 2014 Act 2015 Act 2016 Act 2017 Est 2018 Est 2019 Est 2020 Est 2021 Est
(December year end) $'000s $'000s $'000s $'000s $'000s $'000s $'000s $'000s $'000s
KPIs
Number of passengers flown (000s) 366.5 597.8 781.2 783.3 489.8 554.9 832.4 1,202.4 1,757.3
Load factor 72.5% 73.3% 66.7% 53.7% 75.7% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
Aircraft utilisation (hours per day) 5.9 7.9 9.9 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Seats flown (000s) 503 814 1,172 1,459 647 694 1,041 1,503 2,197
Revenue per ASK (cents) 7.72 7.95 6.75 5.93
Cost per ASK (cents) 14.13 11.27 9.28 11.15
Revenue/passenger 71.10 88.98 82.74 87.50 85.75 88.32 90.97 93.70 96.51
Fleet size in service
Airbus A319s (145 seats/plane) leased / owned 3 3 6 2 0 0 0 0 0
E190s (100 seats) - dry leases Tanzania/other 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 5 8
E145s (50 seats) - wet leases: Zimbabwe 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 3
Total 3 3 6 3 4 4 6 8 11
Tanzania / other 26,055 53,759 64,637 59,677
Zimbabwe 0 0 310 9,369
Revenues 26,055 53,759 64,947 69,046 42,000 49,014 75,726 112,663 169,602
% annual growth 106.3% 20.8% 6.3% -39.2% 16.7% 54.5% 48.8% 50.5%
Tanzania / other -21,459 -22,021 -24,075 -43,094
Zimbabwe 0 0 -3,974 -14,454
Central costs and other -10,355 -9,539 -9,389 -5,210
EBITDA -31,814 -31,560 -37,438 -62,758 -13,500 2,100 5,658 11,136 20,014
% Margin -122.1% -58.7% -57.6% -90.9% -32.1% 4.3% 7.5% 9.9% 11.8%
EBIT -33,707 -33,194 -37,926 -63,910 -15,000 600 3,408 7,886 15,264
% Margin -129.4% -61.7% -58.4% -92.6% -35.7% 1.2% 4.5% 7.0% 9.0%
Net finance charge -445 -310 2,057 -1,913 -500 -400 -300 -100 0
Profit before Tax -34,152 -33,504 -35,869 -65,823 -15,500 200 3,108 7,786 15,264
Corporation tax 0 -153 -353 -175 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings -34,152 -33,657 -36,222 -65,998 -15,500 200 3,108 7,786 15,264
Adjusted Basic EPS (cents) -1,128.0 -255.8 -70.6 -84.2 -4.62 0.06 0.93 2.32 4.55
Valuation benchmarks
P/E ratio 23.9 9.5 4.9
EV/Sales 1.07 1.76 1.50 0.97 0.65 0.43
EV/EBITDA 35.1 13.0 6.6 3.7
EV/EBIT 122.9 21.6 9.3 4.8
EBITDA drop through rate % 13.3% 14.8% 15.6%
Operating cashflow -31,103 -27,238 -36,899 -52,336 -30,407 2,000 1,108 4,786 11,264
Gross cash raised from placings/open offers 15,500 24,900 75,000 20,000 28,800 0
Equity issued for PIK services 21,500 0 0 0 19,200 0
10 year FAL loan note (4%) 0 0 0 -10,300 -9,785 -8,755 -7,725 -6,695 -6,695
Cash balance (excl FAL loan) 3,710 1,377 28,861 3,607 500 2,500 3,608 8,394 19,658
Sharecount (000s) 3,028 13,155 51,287 78,338 335,840 335,840 335,840 335,840 335,840

[depester] 30/6/2017 11:53

Copied from Equity Development's report:
Cashflow breakeven expected in Q4’17
‘Trying to catch a falling knife’ can be a painful game. Better to wait until the bloodletting
has finished - and if the fundamentals are still sound - start dipping one’s toe into
the waters. This way the risks tend to be less, but the upside still material.
To us, fastjet appears to have reached this point. In fact, after nearly 12 months of
radical surgery under the leadership of CEO Nico Bezuidenhout, we now feel sufficiently
confident to reinstate our valuation - pitched at 24p/share, based on a blend of
2021 multiples (see later) and discounted back at 15%.
So, what’s changed our view?
Well in short: improved revenue visibility, a dramatic realignment of costs, faith in the
management team and perhaps most importantly, the airline seems to be on track to
reach cashflow breakeven in Q4’17. Albeit, this is seasonally the busiest time of year for
passenger numbers.
What’s more, from here fastjet should start enjoying the long term benefits of rising low
cost travel in Africa. Underpinned by $45-65/barrel crude prices, relatively expensive
airfares (3x-4x higher than Europe), frequent delays, poor road/rail infrastructure, and
an expanding 1 billion population that is becoming more affluent and increasingly keen
to fly.
Adding growth to stabilisation
More specifically, this morning in a trading statement ahead of the AGM, the company
said that its stabilisation plan was working. Adding that the re-fleeting process, relocation
of its headquarters from London to Johannesburg and right-sizing of its operations, was
“having the desired effect” – with “cashflow break-even” set for Q4’17, and to be
positive thereafter.
Encouragingly too, with the backing of 28.5% holder and strategic investor, Solenta
Aviation, the Board are also “evaluating expansion options to further
geographies”. This is actually 12 months earlier than we had anticipated (and are
presently modelling) - but we are nevertheless delighted to hear that the group is
considering shifting towards the next phase of its development, ie scaling operations
both inside and outside of Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
fastjet wins major accolade and buys back brand
Elsewhere, in recognition of what has been achieved in such a short space of time, fastjet
was awarded the prestigious Skytrax prize of Best Low Cost Carrier in Africa at
the recent Paris Airshow.
Better still, the business has agreed to buy 100% ownership of its name from
easyGroup Holdings for $2.5m in cash.
Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou commented: “I have accepted the view of the board that the company
should own its own brand rather than licence it from me. I feel we have agreed a fair price
for its transfer - $2.5m – which is less than what the company would have had to pay over
the next five years. I still hold shares worth about £1.3m, and as such I will be a supportive
shareholder, hoping to realise significant upside potential as fastjet grows and prospers. From
the decisive actions thus far taken by the new Management and Board, and early indicative
outcomes, I am encouraged that fastjet’s direction of travel is now on the right course”
Fastjet CEO Nico Bezuidenhout concluding “Brand development is an integral part of building
a successful consumer facing business and represents a substantial investment for any airline
– it logically follows that your brand, an asset to be leveraged for the benefit of Shareholders,
should be under your full control and ownership. We are happy to have reached agreement
with Sir Stelios and appreciate the ongoing confidence he has expressed in the fastjet business
and leadership team."
Cash appears tight, but manageable
Going forward, we calculate that liquidity is set to reach a low point in October ahead of
the busy seasonal peak of Nov/Dec. Consequently, there is a chance that further capital may
be required over the next 12 months. Not that this should be insurmountable in itself, given
shareholders have stumped up $213m (gross) already over the past 4 years.
In summary, we believe real improvements have and continue to be made, with strong
management forcing through capital discipline and more flexible cost structures.
So, with the foundations now in place to build a highly profitable and rapidly expanding
business, fastjet looks well positioned to enjoy the fruits of its labours, alongside greater
demand from African corporates, consumers and tourists, who are increasingly opting to
travel.
Key Risks
In our opinion, fastjet should be viewed as a speculative investment with the main risks being:
 It is at a relatively early stage of its commercial development in Africa, and there is no
certainty that anticipated revenues or growth will be achieved.
 The current management team is executing ambitious turnaround strategy, which
involves several key assumptions that need to fall into place.
 Government bureaucracy, corruption, instability and protectionism in Africa.
 The company is executing on many fronts, and therefore it is important there is sufficient
management resource to facilitate this growth.
 Foreign exchange (eg Tanzanian Shilling & Zambian Kwacha vs US$) and fuel price
fluctuations.
 Competitive pressures, especially from the region's main carriers: Kenya Airways,
Precisionair (Tanzania), Ethiopian Airlines and South African Airways. Additionally some
of these players, although loss-making, are being propped up by bailouts from their
respective governments.
 Future funding (if required) may not be forthcoming from capital providers, and/or at
attractive rates.
 Regulatory, tax and governmental changes, which may affect the development of aviation
services in the region. For example most governments only allow access to international
carriers at their airports, if a mutually beneficial bilateral air-traffic agreement is
established between the respective countries.

[jimmyloser] 30/6/2017 10:39

Please post it if you can
TIA

[wageslave] 30/6/2017 10:19

That report requires a log in. Perhaps past it on here?

[edmonda] 30/6/2017 09:26

First analyst note out on today's update from ED :

[zcaprd7] 30/6/2017 08:50

Nice update. Nice pat on the back from stelios, and good to see they can pony up some money upfront for the brand, suggests breakeven a definite...

[jimmyloser] 30/6/2017 07:08

The penny dropped yet?

Halleleujah, hallelujah

Amen.

[jimmyloser] 23/6/2017 12:58

added another 43k...the penny will drop.

[tenapen] 22/6/2017 13:17

I bought back a big 3644 shares this morning and i will add a few going forward, when funds allow.

Regards.

[zcaprd7] 22/6/2017 11:32

I'm sure Disney are unimpressed!

[jimmyloser] 22/6/2017 09:45

very interesting news 9753

[tenapen] 22/6/2017 08:41

Zimbabwe has signed a comprehensive agreement with unnamed Chinese investors for the construction of its ‘Disneyland in Africa’, a tourism and conference theme park in the resort town of Victoria Falls, the Tourism Minister said today.

Cont...

[jimmyloser] 22/6/2017 08:10

"stabilisation plan concludes"

AGM 30th June............next week.

[zcaprd7] 22/6/2017 08:08

Good spot. Looks lead a steady hand and a brutal slog over the last year as finally paid off... Hopefully we can achieve monthly breakeven and perhaps contemplate some growth?

[jimmyloser] 21/6/2017 21:10

This is the type of newsflow to take notice of in my opinion........dyor

21 Jun 2017 |

Fastjet has been awarded the 'Best African Low-Cost Airline' title at the World Airline Awards, presented by Skytrax, at the Paris Air Show in France.

Fastjet takes 'Best African Low-Cost Airline' titleThis is the airline’s first World Airline Award and is based on votes from customers making use of an airline’s services.

“The award is a welcome accolade and suggests that Fastjet is on the right trajectory,” says head of the airline, Nico Bezuidenhout.

“This recognition comes as the stabilisation plan concludes and our focus broadens beyond commercial stability to positive movement in terms of network, distribution and fleet.” He adds that Fastjet’s plans to assume the role of Africa’s first pan-continental low-cost airline are well underway.

Says Bezuidenhout: “Above all else, I would like to acknowledge our people, the Fastjet team, whose efforts have embraced our culture and mantra and have expressed it through creating a positive customer experience. The award belongs to everyone at Fastjet whose hard work has made it possible.”

[zcaprd7] 21/6/2017 18:58

Seems to be flat now. A placing? They have a load of cash from January?

[zcaprd7] 21/6/2017 17:20

Is that a real drop, or he spread opening up? Oil price probably not helping, but new routes must be a good sign?

[jimmyloser] 20/6/2017 08:09

fastjet has increased the number of flights on its route between Johannesburg and Harare, and launched a fifth seasonal flight from Harare to Victoria Falls, in response to strong passenger demand.

On its route between Johannesburg and Harare, fastjet will now offer up to three daily return flights with effect from 1 July 2017.

This represents an addition of 12 flights per week on this strategic route between the two cities, providing passengers added flexibility to manage their diaries – a particularly important consideration for business travellers who travel this route frequently.

Due to seasonal demand, fastjet has also added a fifth weekly flight on Mondays between 17 July and 11 September on its route between Harare and Victoria Falls.

By offering a total of 50 flights per week to and from Zimbabwe with the newly announced schedule, fastjet will be taking people places and offering passengers more convenient travel options - whether for business of leisure - at affordable fares.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
“fastjet has realised considerable success in attracting travellers to its service between Johannesburg and Harare as well as domestically between Harare and Victoria Falls,” says Hein Kaiser, fastjet’s spokesperson.

“The addition of the fifth seasonal flight from Harare to Victoria Falls also provides our passengers with increased travel option choices to visit the Falls during one if its peak seasons, when its water is at its lowest,” says Kaiser.

Tickets for the additional flights to and from Johannesburg are already on sale, with one-way fares to Harare starting from R1 333, including taxes and airport charges.

fastjet recently elected to quote all-inclusive fares on its Zimbabwean routes, and suggests that travellers book 21 days in advance of their intended departure date to take advantage of its best priced, all-inclusive fares.

“Our all-inclusive price makes it simpler and more transparent for our passengers to choose and book their flights,” says Kaiser. “fastjet shows one price for the passenger flight without highlighting fees and taxes separately.”

[jimmyloser] 08/6/2017 09:14

one for losers!

lol

[zcaprd7] 07/6/2017 17:45

I think my monitor is broken, this is showing blue!

[jimmyloser] 06/6/2017 16:13

The planned transition from an erstwhile all Airbus A319 fleet to an all Embraer E190/145 fleet are now confirmed after Fastjet in their annual financial report did say that their last leased A319 will leave the fleet by September this year.
Presently is the low cost airline operating one remaining A319 from ICBC and two ERJ145’s seconded to them by Solenta Aviation, a new equity partner which came on board earlier in the year. The Airbus is deployed in Tanzania to serve the domestic and remaining regional routes while the ERJ145’s are deployed in Zimbabwe.


"It is understood that two Embraer E190’s in an all economy version will join the Fastjet fleet in September".


The airline according to the report, expects operational savings to the tune of about 15 percent of the Embraers versus the Airbus aircraft, no doubt worth it given the competitive environment in particular in Tanzania, where national airline Air Tanzania is undergoing a government sponsored revival.
In Tanzania does Fastjet serve Kilimanjaro, Mwanza and Mbeya out of Dar es Salaam but also Lusaka and Harare while from Harare are Johannesburg and Victoria Falls on the destination list.

[albert3591] 04/6/2017 19:16

A lot of buying days needed for this one,maybe up to November,or later.