Faroe Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[oto1] 09/1/2019 08:08

8,5 mill shares more changed hands before opening at 160p

That should bring dno above 50% according to my calculations, so next message should be unconditional, and 14 days acceptance period.

[harry rags] 09/1/2019 08:04

Bounty hunter I also notice this is their final cash offer so presumably if a rival bit comes they will need to offer the same amount of money plus DNO shares and not everyone would be happy with DNO sharesHarry

[bountyhunter] 09/1/2019 07:49

90% is the final key level after which remaining shares would be compulsorily purchased at the highest offer price.

No sign yet of an RNS relating to the shares reported to have changed hands yesterday at 160p and reported after hours? A deliberate delay on that unless I have missed it? There was no trouble getting the updated offer RNS out at 07:00am.

[wbodger] 08/1/2019 23:28

Beyond the 14 days, DNO want to delist, so they will take any they can get at £1.60, right up to 95%. Most will fold in the 14 days though.

boy, I'd be ticked off if I had sold shares late today at £1.53. Faroe advised against selling in the market, and to let it play out. There was no reason to sell excepting any really pressing personal needs. The Offer was certainly going to be available till next Wednesday, probably longer.

Faroe Board played this out properly, as usual. Whatever has been posted it was just about getting as much for shareholders as possible and the Board put up a good fight. The craziness came about because the shares ever traded as low as £1 before DNO came in.

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/1/2019 23:18

DNO got lucky, OP fell a third & they've taken advantage

[bomfin] 08/1/2019 23:11

Bid was made before Equinor asset swap which is worth 96 million accelerated cashflow in the next 2 years. That should have merited an increase of 2Opshare on the offer and not a mean and nasty 8pshare. Not only is it cash flow enhancing which will likely see FPM establish a dividend it cuts caped in the next 3 years also. If dno get fpm for 16Oshare it is good business. I guess you cant blame them. You are awful but I like you. lol

[redartbmud] 08/1/2019 22:47

ExB

You are right.
I have held my Fpm shares for so long that I had not thought of them being listed on AIM.
I am sure that the arbs will run a model to calculate the cost of capital tied up in the deal until the bid finally concludes and they receive the payout. After all, there are plenty of opportunities out there that are attractive enough to create a new play, so why wait.

It will be very interesting to see where the dust settles first thing tomorrow. A few forms must have been filed after close of play.

Afraid that, sadly, it does look to be the end for Fpm as an independent.
Were I in their shoes, I might be disappointed by the performance of the sdvisers. Can they really justify full value for their fees?

Off to bed, so that I can get up to see the RNS issued at 7.00 am.

[exbroker] 08/1/2019 22:05

Gentlemen.
A few technical points.
There is no stamp duty on AIM stocks, and the brokerage would be minimal, or Nil given the level of fees.
The bid cannot be raised unless a third party launches a firm bid.
The bid must remain open until at least the next closing date and for at least 14 days after it is declared wholly unconditional.
The arbs who have been buyers will now sell the stock to DNO for a small turn. Given the purchases after the increase at 160 it looks very much as if its goodnight Faroe.
If I can get 160 in the morning, I will sell my stock to DNO.

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2019 22:03

"DNO will have all the time in the world to wait out the last shareholders, and not many will risk sitting with their shares if the company is delisted."

Oto, I would remind you that you need >75% to delist and >90% to force out minority shareholders and you don't even have 50% at present, so this could drag on for a long time yet.

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2019 21:57

I well know that feeling Red!!

...and absolutely!

[redartbmud] 08/1/2019 21:48

bountyhunter.

Yes 0.5%. Trying to be too blase, after a day that began at 5.00am this morning, when I had to get up to catch a very early train to get to a meeting. No excuse, but I am cream crackered:-)

No idea what oto is trying to prove. He tests the patience of a saint!!

[oto1] 08/1/2019 21:29

Redartbmud

Who says it matters anything to me?
I'm just making a point to those here that appears to be sticking to their shares.
It may not be a good decision at all.

Bountyhunter:
I can understand the price went above 152. Then there was a leverage for owners to get the bid increased by making sure DNO would not get more.

That leverage has now disappeared.
DNO can not up the price any more, and if this lapses buyers are stuck with shares bought above 160.
And if DNO gets 50%, why should they buy more at an even higher price?

DNO will have all the time in the world to wait out the last shareholders, and not many will risk sitting with their shares if the company is delisted.

So I'm predicting an avalanche of acceptances the very moment DNO reaches 50%, which I also predict will be tomorrow.

You can shoot the messenger if You want, I don't mind.

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2019 21:08

Red - you mean stamp duty is 0.5% I think ;)
...

"The only reason I can imagine for share price going above 160 now would be short cover."

or for the same reason as when the bid was 152

[redartbmud] 08/1/2019 21:07

oto

The price is unlikely to go much below 160p.
Some investors may sell to get cash quickly, but willnot DNO have to pay UK stamp duty on the transaction? That is 0.005% (1.595p per share on a price of 160p), and they will have to pay brokers fees. It could be more expensive that waiting for sellers to accept the offer, after it becomes unconditional, but then again it may not.

Anyway, I just don't see your problem. If you are hell bent on DNO winning the bid, and they succeed, what does it matter?

[oto1] 08/1/2019 20:55

Of course nothing is guarateed.

But who others than DNO will buy at 160 if they get above 50%?

And why should they buy at 160 in the market if sellers are willing to go lower?

There is no rush for Dno when they have achieved 50%.

The only reason I can imagine for share price going above 160 now would be short cover.

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/1/2019 20:54

oto1
8 Jan '19 - 19:40 - 2194 of 2211


The moment DNO passes 50% the offer will be declared unconditional, and then there will be 14 more days to accept.

..possibly.

And the moment DNO passes 50% it's no longer a guarantee that DNO will pay 160 at exchange.

...not obvious why the price should fall below 160p if DNO have, or are believed to have, 50%

So don't be surprised if the share price drops below 160 when 50% threshold is met.

....I'd be surprised

So this is a race now for those who wants a quick exit at 160.

...Think you're wrong, but we'll see

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2019 20:51

Only if we see the market price at below 160 again - that is not guaranteed.

[oto1] 08/1/2019 20:41

Point 1 and 2 is exactly what I'm saying.

As for point 3 it cant be like dno cant buy at a lower price on aim.
That I refuse to believe.

[redartbmud] 08/1/2019 20:35

oto

Afraid you have got it wrong again:
1. DNO will have to pay 160p to all shareholders who accept the offer, even those who already accepted at 152p, as long as the bid 'wins'.
2. Any shares that were sold outright have already changed hands, so the sellers only get the price they agreed to. at that time.
3. They will have to pay 160p to all shareholders, from this point on, if they do win by obtaining sufficient acceptances to push them up to 50% + 1 share.

[scoobydoo99] 08/1/2019 20:33

In my opinion both DNO's RNS have been carefully planned, the increase was planned prior to the gaffney cline valuation and they've now seized on the Oda weakness and reduced their originally intended offer - but they now have a rising oil price to try to outrun, I hope the institutions hold their nerve.

[oto1] 08/1/2019 20:23

"dno has listened to the market"

And apparently the market wanted 160.
This was most likely a done deal before they upped the price.

And I don't think Blackrock is included yet.
Which makes me believe that DNO will be closer to 60% than 50% tomorrow.

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2019 20:20

Of course.

[fntc] 08/1/2019 20:19

Shares that accept the offer will not show in any trade log until the whole bidding process is over, so the off book trades this afternoon have sold outright in the market. My guess is to DNO, and seller is probably either BlackRock or Invesco. RNS from buyer and seller should probably come tomorrow before open.

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2019 20:18

Yes that is correct the ones who have accepted 152p in the offer process will also get 160p but not the ones who already sold, but obviously only if the offer is successful which isn't a given at this point.

[scaff55] 08/1/2019 20:17

So maybe its the the after hours trades going through All smoke and mirrors.