Falcon Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 27/11/2017 19:24

Review into proposals to frack vast shale resources in the Beetaloo basin is presently underway, in the meantime Falcon said it has adopted strict cost management.

The company has told investors it ended the three months to September 30 with a strong financial position – it is debt free and had US$9.4mln of cash.

As the AIM-quoted shale group continues to await the outcome of a government commissioned review into fracking in Australia’s Northern Territory the company continues to adopt strict cost management.

It is now expected that a draft final report will be published in mid-December.

Amid the operational hiatus, Falcon’s general and admin expenses decreased by 6% quarter on quarter to US$1.48mln.

[loganair] 08/11/2017 13:06

More on why the NT fracking report is being delayed....

The final report into hydraulic fracturing in the Northern Territory has been delayed by three months, after an Indigenous community in the resource-rich Beetaloo Basin was "pushed" to consider the benefits of fracking during a community consultation.

In August, residents in the remote community of Elliot, 700km south of Darwin, recorded a consultation session in which they were repeatedly asked to consider asking for new houses, a cattle station, cultural centre and supermarket.

In the recording, a senior consultant told residents to consider the benefits because the industry was "not going away".

In response, the fracking inquiry expressed its "utmost dismay and concern" at the "unacceptable conduct" of the Northern Territory-based consultancy firm, Cross Cultural Consultants (CCC).

A statement from the head of the inquiry, Justice Rachel Pepper, said that as a result of the incident, a section of the social impact assessment would be re-done by a new organisation, Indigenous Agreement Solutions (IAS).

Ms Pepper said that as result of the appointment, the final report could not be published until March 2018.

Under the new consultations, head contractor Coffey Services Australia and new consultancy firm IAS will attend all of the communities CCC had previously consulted directly with, including Katherine, Mataranka, Daly Waters, Elliott, Newcastle Waters, Tennant Creek, Borroloola, Robinson River, Ngukurr and Minyerri.

IAS will begin preparatory meetings in these communities at the end of November, with community consultation as part of the social impact assessment starting in December.

Who are the contactors?

The fracking inquiry hired Coffey, a geotechnical engineering firm, to conduct its social impact assessment.

Coffey engaged consultancy firm CCC to go out to communities and talk about the fracking inquiry.

On their website, CCC states that it has been operating since 1989, and works to deliver culturally appropriate consultation to Indigenous communities on behalf of mining, construction, oil and gas companies, as well as not-for-profit community and Indigenous organisations.

Following an investigation, Coffey appointed IAS to undertake the new consultations.

Delay 'unnecessary'

The industry body representing oil and gas companies believes the delay on the fracking inquiry's report jeopardises jobs and investment in the Northern Territory.

Matt Doman, Northern Territory director of the Australian Petroleum Production Association said it was difficult to see why a small part of the inquiry was now being used to drag it out by another three months.

"This scientific inquiry, which comes on top of the previous Hawke inquiry in the Northern Territory and on the top of many other inquiries that have been conducted around Australia and around the world, is now taking at least 15 months to conclude.

"If there is to be any significant investment in 2018, we need to be planning it now.

"The delay until March next year makes it virtually impossible."

[arc en ciel] 07/11/2017 10:47

Thanks for posting this Morrowman, it has given us info as to what is transpiring.

As well as the social and cultural impacts that Justice Pepper thinks are particularly important, we must hope that the economic benefits that the development of shale gas resources will bring to NT communities are being recognised and welcomed.

It does not seem necessary to develop all the enormous Beetaloo resources immediately; just defining certain areas at first, possibly selected according to the regional results of the survey, could be beneficial while at the same time giving the Federal government the boosted gas supply it needs.

[fsawatcher] 07/11/2017 10:37

dead money goin no wheres on here

this drift back to 14p

put ya money in stocks that movin and groovvin

[squiresquire] 06/11/2017 10:51

Judge Peppers report out in next few days, she said early November instead of late October, so any day now.

[thecynical1] 29/10/2017 23:34

Preliminary report out.

[arc en ciel] 25/10/2017 10:12

....let's hope it chimes with a go-ahead before the month end

[thecynical1] 25/10/2017 09:12

Clock ticking.....

[thecynical1] 28/9/2017 16:24

Is something leaking down under?

Bit of interest - more than usual here today and the Canadian price is hitting 40 again..... I wonder

[squiresquire] 28/9/2017 12:07

Draft Final Report due in October, things should be explained far better in the report,

[hermana3] 14/9/2017 07:57

"Moving sedately but purposefully"! Nice one Malcy....

[squiresquire] 09/9/2017 16:01

You would never have thought a far more sophisticated government would have destroyed Iraq or Libya......Governments can be ever so thick.

[happyholder123] 09/9/2017 10:55

HNR -
TWO wells successfully drilled with abundant oil and gas in samples extracted!
Fracking and FIRST OIL next month!
Don't miss this train!

[haroldthegreat] 06/9/2017 12:36

So what is the downside if refused ? Back to 5p or just a few pence off current Price. If approved a further increase by ? P
Surely they cannot be so thick to turn down the chance of much cheaper and needed energy. The country is facing a severe future energy crisis.

[mirabeau] 25/8/2017 10:13

Go and play on the motorway you imbecilic child

Filtered..

[mirabeau] 24/8/2017 20:37

FOG is probably one of the most undervalued gas stocks on the LSE. Yes, there's a moratorium in place at present but the general view, widely held, is that Origin-FOG will be allowed to frack Beetaloo following suspension last year

We should have an official decision about the lifting/relaxation of the moratorium by Dec but Oct is the date when we should be aware of the intention of the NT Govt

FOG is valued at £212m but just look at the volumes of gas assets they have ownership over. The company is undervalued by many multiples


Thanks to Newtofo :-

RE: CEO Santos speech

Today 15:47

Mirabeau, thanks for the link to the Santos CEO speech - as I have that one saved to my expanding Falcon file!!

The speech brought up a number of very key points - that I am sure Gunner is listening to very closely! The Beetaloo could not only increase jobs and revenue in the Northern Territory, but over the longer term help reduce emissions for all of Australia and S. E. Asia as well. Over the longer term the massive gas resources in the Beetaloo could help the N.T. to become a major centre for even better long term jobs in the chemicals industry as well.

Santos CEO said a couple of things that really caught my attention. The first one was his comment in the last paragraph on page 10 - wherein he states that the "N.T. contains a vast PROVEN unconventional resource. The potential resource is in excess of 260 TCF which is larger than all the identified conventional Australian gas resources."

It was really impressive to hear the CEO state categorically that the vast unconventional resource is "proven" even though we all knew that to be the case. This kind of statement by Santos will help win over the general population in the N.T. to a much brighter future!

The other key bit of information was the CEO's claim in the last paragraph on page 12 - that over Santos permitted area in the Beetaloo of 700 sections ( each section is one square mile on their EP #161 JV with Tanburan Resources) that - "total gas volumes in place over the shale interval have been calculated at 163 Billion cu. ft. per section". This is equal to 114 TCF of gas resources in place for Santo's much smaller permitted area next door.

This is a staggering number - as this 163 bcf per section is more than double what Origin is showing for just the "B" shale per section, so it must include all three shale zones in the velkerri. To give everyone a little more perspective on how big this number really is -- the prospective portion of the Falcon's permits (about 10,000 sq. km out of the 17,000 sq. km total in Falcon's three permits) cover just about 9 times the 700 sections that Santos CEO is referring to for their JV land position next door.

If Santos' numbers are correct - then Falcon's area could have in excess of 1,000 TCF of gas resources in place (1 Quadrillion cu. ft.), or more than double Origin's estimate of 496 TCF in place for just the mid-velkerri "B" shale. I believe this would make the Beetaloo second only to the Marcellus for total gas resources in place, and that is without taking into account whatever resources might be in place for the Lower Kyalla.'

[loganair] 26/7/2017 10:51

Will Falcon Oil & Gas Get The Go-Ahead?

I like recent action of Falcon oil and gas here and believe more upside momentum is in the cards. Although the current share price is hovering around the $0.29 level, the stock actually dipped back to $0.20 a share on Tuesday last due to the release of an interim report with respect to the current fracking moratorium in Australia. When the report was initially released, we saw selling really come to the fore which was surprising to say the least. Why? Because there was nothing in the report that suggested the final report (which is due later this year) would state that fracking in the Northern Territory would remain permanently on hold.

In fact, Falcon's drilling partner Origin Energy (which has already bought out its former partner Sasol Limited in a clear statement of intent) has since come out and welcomed the preliminary report by stating that the balance in the report was fair. This looks encouraging going forward. If the report were slanted heavily towards the risks of fracking as an extraction technique, investors would think otherwise about the progress of activity in the Beetaloo Basin. However Origin's comments definitely steadied the ship which certainly aided in stopping the aggressive selling of shares this week. As a result, shares now look that they will surpass $0.30 any day now.

So here's the deal for interested investors going forward. Falcon's share price has spiked since February (from around $0.07 per share) due to what could end up being a large unconventional discovery in the Northern Territory. Although extensive further tests must be done, Origin for example has stated that it believes the area known as "Middle Velkerri B" indicates almost 500 trillion cubic feet of gas. Now this is a big number and is only being currently indicated in one shale - the Middle Velkerri B shale. However a further 2 shales have been identified within the Middle Velkerri, plus the Kyalla shale still has no numbers associated with it. Therefore if we only consider a very low estimate (with respect to recovery rates from the Middle Velkerri B shale), we still are only talking about one shale play. This is the first metric to be optimistic about.

Secondly the domestic Australian gas market doesn't look all that healthy with shortages expected over the next decade. This is why I believe it would take a brave government to keep the fracking ban going indefinitely in the Northern Territory. Australia is a huge net gas exporter so it is definitely incongruous to see that its domestic market could potentially run out of gas (especially in parts of East Australia such as Sydney) over the next 10 years. Furthermore Origin's experience in fracking in this part of the world should help the argument move forward in that the company has actually redesigned its technology to ensure no aquifer contamination underneath the surface when undergoing fracking.

Moreover when one puts the environmental arguments to the side, drilling in the Northern Territory would create far more jobs than jobs that would potentially be lost. Roads and infrastructure would have to be built and Australia's energy problem would be history. Investors should note that Falcon's shares have rallied aggressively since February of this year even with the moratorium in place since last September. This should mean that there is still plenty of upside here if this ban gets lifted. 6 months should tell a lot here. Ultimately it will come down to recovery rates. How much gas can they get out is the question but they are definitely starting from a large base.

In investing we get paid to predict the future. Personally I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance the fracking ban gets lifted. Considering the size of the asset in question here, investors could do worse than being long Falcon before this final report comes to light. Our premium portfolio has been long this stock for quite a while now and latest developments would prompt me to lean on the side of doubling down (on any more steep pullbacks) instead of holding or selling our stake.

[squiresquire] 19/7/2017 12:47

Months to go before hearing any more, agree with Malcy, but the legal challenges now have a basis upon which to be formed and will be issued in the next two or three months.

[dgarvey] 18/7/2017 12:45

Macy's Blog today for what it's worth -Falcon Oil & GasI have been waiting for some months for the interim report by the scientific enquiry into hydraulic fracturing in the Northern Territory in Australia chaired by Justice Rachel Pepper and at the end of last week it was released. Having spent a while on the 175 page report and having been sent a number of press reports and 'initial' company reports I managed to have a long conversation this morning with Falcon Chief, Philip O'Quigley. For background, the incoming Labour Government, led by PM Michael Gunner had put a moratorium on fraccing until the report had made its findings public. Whilst this is an interim report with the final not due until the end of the year the report in my eyes could not have been better for Falcon or Origin, the Operator.These are the two comments that give the most weight to the view that the final report may be a qualified positive for Falcon and Origin."The major recommendations, consistent with other Australian and International reviews, is that the environment risks associated with hydraulic fracturing can be managed effectively subject to the creation of a robust regulatory regime.""Having regard to the substantive weight of agreed expert opinion, the Inquiry finds that there is no justification whatsoever for the imposition of a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in the NT."The primary and most raised issue is that of water,particularly between fracced shale formations and aquifers, this has been considered to be 'low risk' due to the distance between the two and low permeability of the intervening strata. Indeed on this primary and most important point "The Panel's preliminary assessment is that the impact of onshore shale gas operations on surface water supply in semi-arid (such as the Beetaloo Sub-Basin) and arid areas of the NT is relatively low." Indeed the enquiry actually said that there was a risk that groundwater and/or surface water could be contaminated by chemicals but that this could be contained by 'existing management strategies. In addition to this, the enquiry said that reinjection of wastewater into groundwater should be prohibited but Origin have already said that this would never happen.With two economic studies due shortly that may be published by Justice Pepper, and an analysis of the social impact of any drilling in the Beetaloo Basin which shouldn't be an issue as that is a no-brainer, yet to come nothing can be taken for granted but the outlook looks positive. Mr Gunner has said that when the decision is made it will be taken only by the cabinet and the Government and 'solely on the recommendations of the Pepper enquiry'. The two choices appear to be, as might have been expected, either a ban on fraccing or to allow it in a highly-regulated manner in tightly prescribed areas. With the economic argument backing up an approval, it would seem to me that a 10% override with social and scientific backing  is enough to sanction the process. By starting in the Beetaloo Sub-Basin the big winners, apart from the Government are Origin and Falcon who have up to 61 TCF of gas to prove up. Finally it should be noted that Australia is in somewhat of a pickle with regard to its domestic gas supply. Despite having some of the biggest gas discoveries offshore and huge LNG plants selling product all the way up the Pacific Rim it has a severe shortage at home, this might go a little way to addressing that.Falcon shares were very poor performers after the moratorium was announced which is no surprise as anything could have happened. Since then though some investors have seen the size of the prize and taken the risk which has moved the shares up sharply  reaching a peak of 27.375p earlier in the year. Interestingly with word of this report seeping out yesterday they fell by 10% to 19.5p and they have drifted again today. Whilst it cannot be assumed that the ban will be lifted it is right to balance the risks and with the potential upside being so huge I would be of the view that this fall should be reversed and then some, a multiple winner by almost any means is on the cards here