Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Falcon Oil LSE:FOG London Ordinary Share CA3060711015 COM SHS NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 23.00p 22.50p 23.50p 23.00p 23.00p 23.00p 23,910 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -3.0 -0.3 - 211.95

Falcon Oil Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2001 to 2021 of 2025 messages
Chat Pages: 81  80  79  78  77  76  75  74  73  72  71  70  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
26/7/2017
10:51
Will Falcon Oil & Gas Get The Go-Ahead? I like recent action of Falcon oil and gas here and believe more upside momentum is in the cards. Although the current share price is hovering around the $0.29 level, the stock actually dipped back to $0.20 a share on Tuesday last due to the release of an interim report with respect to the current fracking moratorium in Australia. When the report was initially released, we saw selling really come to the fore which was surprising to say the least. Why? Because there was nothing in the report that suggested the final report (which is due later this year) would state that fracking in the Northern Territory would remain permanently on hold. In fact, Falcon's drilling partner Origin Energy (which has already bought out its former partner Sasol Limited in a clear statement of intent) has since come out and welcomed the preliminary report by stating that the balance in the report was fair. This looks encouraging going forward. If the report were slanted heavily towards the risks of fracking as an extraction technique, investors would think otherwise about the progress of activity in the Beetaloo Basin. However Origin's comments definitely steadied the ship which certainly aided in stopping the aggressive selling of shares this week. As a result, shares now look that they will surpass $0.30 any day now. So here's the deal for interested investors going forward. Falcon's share price has spiked since February (from around $0.07 per share) due to what could end up being a large unconventional discovery in the Northern Territory. Although extensive further tests must be done, Origin for example has stated that it believes the area known as "Middle Velkerri B" indicates almost 500 trillion cubic feet of gas. Now this is a big number and is only being currently indicated in one shale - the Middle Velkerri B shale. However a further 2 shales have been identified within the Middle Velkerri, plus the Kyalla shale still has no numbers associated with it. Therefore if we only consider a very low estimate (with respect to recovery rates from the Middle Velkerri B shale), we still are only talking about one shale play. This is the first metric to be optimistic about. Secondly the domestic Australian gas market doesn't look all that healthy with shortages expected over the next decade. This is why I believe it would take a brave government to keep the fracking ban going indefinitely in the Northern Territory. Australia is a huge net gas exporter so it is definitely incongruous to see that its domestic market could potentially run out of gas (especially in parts of East Australia such as Sydney) over the next 10 years. Furthermore Origin's experience in fracking in this part of the world should help the argument move forward in that the company has actually redesigned its technology to ensure no aquifer contamination underneath the surface when undergoing fracking. Moreover when one puts the environmental arguments to the side, drilling in the Northern Territory would create far more jobs than jobs that would potentially be lost. Roads and infrastructure would have to be built and Australia's energy problem would be history. Investors should note that Falcon's shares have rallied aggressively since February of this year even with the moratorium in place since last September. This should mean that there is still plenty of upside here if this ban gets lifted. 6 months should tell a lot here. Ultimately it will come down to recovery rates. How much gas can they get out is the question but they are definitely starting from a large base. In investing we get paid to predict the future. Personally I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance the fracking ban gets lifted. Considering the size of the asset in question here, investors could do worse than being long Falcon before this final report comes to light. Our premium portfolio has been long this stock for quite a while now and latest developments would prompt me to lean on the side of doubling down (on any more steep pullbacks) instead of holding or selling our stake.
loganair
19/7/2017
12:47
Months to go before hearing any more, agree with Malcy, but the legal challenges now have a basis upon which to be formed and will be issued in the next two or three months.
squiresquire
18/7/2017
12:45
Macy's Blog today for what it's worth -Falcon Oil & GasI have been waiting for some months for the interim report by the scientific enquiry into hydraulic fracturing in the Northern Territory in Australia chaired by Justice Rachel Pepper and at the end of last week it was released. Having spent a while on the 175 page report and having been sent a number of press reports and 'initial' company reports I managed to have a long conversation this morning with Falcon Chief, Philip O'Quigley. For background, the incoming Labour Government, led by PM Michael Gunner had put a moratorium on fraccing until the report had made its findings public. Whilst this is an interim report with the final not due until the end of the year the report in my eyes could not have been better for Falcon or Origin, the Operator.These are the two comments that give the most weight to the view that the final report may be a qualified positive for Falcon and Origin."The major recommendations, consistent with other Australian and International reviews, is that the environment risks associated with hydraulic fracturing can be managed effectively subject to the creation of a robust regulatory regime.""Having regard to the substantive weight of agreed expert opinion, the Inquiry finds that there is no justification whatsoever for the imposition of a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in the NT."The primary and most raised issue is that of water,particularly between fracced shale formations and aquifers, this has been considered to be 'low risk' due to the distance between the two and low permeability of the intervening strata. Indeed on this primary and most important point "The Panel's preliminary assessment is that the impact of onshore shale gas operations on surface water supply in semi-arid (such as the Beetaloo Sub-Basin) and arid areas of the NT is relatively low." Indeed the enquiry actually said that there was a risk that groundwater and/or surface water could be contaminated by chemicals but that this could be contained by 'existing management strategies. In addition to this, the enquiry said that reinjection of wastewater into groundwater should be prohibited but Origin have already said that this would never happen.With two economic studies due shortly that may be published by Justice Pepper, and an analysis of the social impact of any drilling in the Beetaloo Basin which shouldn't be an issue as that is a no-brainer, yet to come nothing can be taken for granted but the outlook looks positive. Mr Gunner has said that when the decision is made it will be taken only by the cabinet and the Government and 'solely on the recommendations of the Pepper enquiry'. The two choices appear to be, as might have been expected, either a ban on fraccing or to allow it in a highly-regulated manner in tightly prescribed areas. With the economic argument backing up an approval, it would seem to me that a 10% override with social and scientific backing  is enough to sanction the process. By starting in the Beetaloo Sub-Basin the big winners, apart from the Government are Origin and Falcon who have up to 61 TCF of gas to prove up. Finally it should be noted that Australia is in somewhat of a pickle with regard to its domestic gas supply. Despite having some of the biggest gas discoveries offshore and huge LNG plants selling product all the way up the Pacific Rim it has a severe shortage at home, this might go a little way to addressing that.Falcon shares were very poor performers after the moratorium was announced which is no surprise as anything could have happened. Since then though some investors have seen the size of the prize and taken the risk which has moved the shares up sharply  reaching a peak of 27.375p earlier in the year. Interestingly with word of this report seeping out yesterday they fell by 10% to 19.5p and they have drifted again today. Whilst it cannot be assumed that the ban will be lifted it is right to balance the risks and with the potential upside being so huge I would be of the view that this fall should be reversed and then some, a multiple winner by almost any means is on the cards here
dgarvey
21/6/2017
20:40
Is fracking in NT a done deal, asks Lock the Gate ERWIN CHLANDA The Gunner Government appears to be side stepping the NT Fracking Inquiry with plans to facilitate onshore gas fracking in the Territory, says Naomi Hogan of the NT Lock the Gate Alliance. She quotes from a statement on fracking in the NT Economic Development Framework released by Chief Minister Gunner yesterday: “In the near-term, government and industry need to work together to ensure key concerns held by the community are addressed and there is a clear, agreed and endorsed pathway to facilitate industry development.” Naomi-Hogan says the Economic Framework “promotes trillions of cubic feet of onshore gas in the Territory, failing to mention the serious risks of fracking”. HTTP://www.alicespringsnews.com.au/2017/06/21/fracking-in-nt-a-done-deal-says-lock-the-gate/
mirabeau
24/5/2017
08:05
I wonder whether the minister realises that offshore resources benefit the federal government???
thecynical1
16/5/2017
21:12
HTTP://www.afr.com/business/energy/northern-territory-minister-ken-vowles-lifts-gas-hopes-20170515-gw4z66 Updated May 16 2017 at 6:10 PM Northern Territory minister Ken Vowles lifts gas hopes Origin says it had a "Eureka moment" at Beetaloo in 2016. James Davies Angela Macdonald-Smith Tess Ingram The Northern Territory resources minister Ken Vowles has fuelled hopes of at least a partial lifting of the territory's fracking moratorium late this year, talking up the prospects of onshore gas. Mr Vowles told a petroleum industry breakfast in Perth that exploration and studies had revealed the opportunity for "significant new gas development" and "abundant opportunities for resource exploration". He asked the industry to "continue to support" the ongoing scientific inquiry into hydraulic fracturing, which should result in an interim report in June and a final report by the year-end. "If the panel determines that hydraulic fracturing can be done in a safe and manageable way in the Northern Territory, then this inquiry process will have helped industry to earn its social license to operate for the future," he noted. Petroleum players in the gas-rich NT have voiced cautious hopes that the fracking inquiry announced by Chief Minister Michael Gunner after taking government last year would culminate in an outcome unblocking the paralysis in the industry. Attention has focused on the remote Beetaloo Basin, where Origin Energy has reported promising results and which was highlighted at the APPEA conference as the spark of excitement in an otherwise dormant Australian shale sector. Origin's unconventional exploration manager David Close said a large and potentially economic gas resource was taking shape in the Beetaloo, where Origin, Santos and private player Pangaea Resources are heading an exploration push. Origin has drilled three vertical wells and a horizontal well at its Beetaloo venture and completed some fracture stimulation before the moratorium was imposed to try and "show it is viable as quickly as possible", Mr Close said. He pointed in particular to the first horizontal well, Amungee, as an encouraging indication of the project's viability. Origin announced an initial "contingent resource" of 6.6 trillion cubic feet of gas at the venture in February. "I think our strategy to move as quickly as possible to horizontals has been validated and we may look back at that hole as a 'Eureka' moment," Mr Close said. "They are a bit hard to get in unconventionals, 'Eureka' moments, but maybe one was there in 2016 for us and we are not 100 per cent of it aware of it yet." Mr Close said it could take just one play to transform the onshore gas supply picture in Australia. "We don't need to six or seven basins to work if one basin has a lot of running room that could create a good change, but it is not going to happen easily, there are a lot of challenges in front of us," he said. The hurdles include improving performance, reducing costs and, not least, the lifting of the moratorium. Addressing landowner concerns about groundwater contamination and disruption to their businesses were high on Origin's agenda, Mr Close said, including actively contesting misconceptions about well integrity, well density and the industry's impact on groundwater. Mr Vowles also noted the the Barkly region between Tennant Creek and Mt Isa would see a range of geoscience programs and surveys to identify new resource opportunities, and said the government would draw up the NT's first "resources prospectus" to attract investment in exploration. The minister also noted the circa 30 trillion cubic feet of gas sitting offshore from the Territory, some of which could feed a potential multi-billion dollar expansion of ConocoPhillips' Darwin LNG project currently under study. ==
mirabeau
09/5/2017
19:51
Thanks MirabeauHere's a little background for any newbies....HTtp://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/origins-beetaloo-bonanza-just-in-time-to-beat-ban/news-story/fb9a7119281c0fd2c6c091536082efb2
palwing13
09/5/2017
18:10
www.energynewsbulletin.net/world/australasia subscription site though : Beetaloo hopes boosted. RBC believes NT could lift its frac ban so Origin can carry out its work. Anthony Barich. 09 May 2017; 08:54 ... - looking promising now though we still have a legacy seller from some bankruptcy or other according to LSE
mirabeau
08/5/2017
09:43
Malcolm Graham-Wood - Sasol has sold its 35% stake in Beetaloo to origin giving them 70% of the project, Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG) stays at 30%. The carry, which gives FOG £154 million of free spend remains the same and the moratorium also goes on. I have written on Falcon recently so no need to add much more, but I remain of the view that the moratorium may well cede at least part of the Beetaloo and will lead to at least a start of a development.
loganair
05/5/2017
09:40
Falcon get carried upto an agreed cap so yes you are correct and my logic is flawed. Early morning excitement dulling my brain
mirabeau
05/5/2017
09:36
Mirabeau....they will still have to carry the costs......? someone has to and FOG have a free carry up to a point......not sure I follow your logic on that one... The most interesting thing for me is that the fact that they have taken SASOL out of the equation. Positive for FOG on the one hand as someone obviously appears to know something we don´t.....or they think they do.....on the other hand, it reduces the number of people in the know who might be interested in making a bid for FOG....anyway.....will be interesting to see what if anything leaks about the price paid.....and then........
thecynical1
05/5/2017
08:35
am I the only one who thinks that if an Australian company ( that obviously has serious contacts / influence ) is prepared to take out one of their partners in what could be one of the largest gas resources on the planet in a country that at present appears to be having a bit of an energy crisis, then there is something going on in the background that we are not aware of? I guess we won´t get an details on what they paid but boy would it be interesting to know? Nice timing for the announcement....just in time for a bit of coverage ( and speculation ) in the Sunday papers??????
thecynical1
05/5/2017
07:16
now....if they are prepared to take out SASOL, what do they know that we don´t? makes its even more interesting....
thecynical1
05/5/2017
07:13
That is a very interesting development imo! Pity there is no talk of the price of the price paid. Also very little info about the deal on the web as of now. interesting....really interesting....should be an interesting day here today if people start speculating that they will also ultimately take out FOG before things get too big.....wishful thinking on my behalf perhaps...but then again.....stranger things have happened......
thecynical1
04/5/2017
10:53
Cannot justify the sub cost of a seemingly Australian-only publication for just one article. Summary, please, Mirabeau
arc en ciel
04/5/2017
06:45
Been adding shares here and there but today's news is very welcome. Vowles approval of licence is welcome news HTTP://www.afr.com/business/jemena-says-nt-pipeline-extension-could-solve-east-coast-gas-crisis-20170503-gvxw8k
mirabeau
03/5/2017
09:34
Not so cynical, then. I looked it up and I first bought in October 2015-so have held for 1.5 years so far. Up 329% in that time. Lots more to go for.....
arc en ciel
02/5/2017
12:48
arc en ciel...was just checking....I have looked in here a couple of times over the last few weeks and didn´t see any new posts....I am also holding. I have been here so long, I may as well wait for another while!!! ; ) Would be nice to see some progress in SA but I suspect the political climate there is not going to help for the moment. News from Oz should imo be next catalyst. Let´s hope that the politicians in NT get real. If they do, this should really start to motor imo. Guess we´ll all have to wait and see.
thecynical1
02/5/2017
12:41
Sold up?? Moved on?? You must indeed be cynical. Personally I will hold the shares for years. My time horizon is at least 3 years. I would hate to sell and then see the price rocket like a firework to ££s as it could so easily due to any number of potential touchpapers being lit. As just one example, all the current interest is concentrated on the Beetaloo, and rightly so. But how about the Karoo potential? South Africa would swoon if a Falcon JV could uncover another world-class shale belt in the country.
arc en ciel
02/5/2017
09:55
has everyone sold up and moved on? Nice bit of action in Canada seems to have helped things here this morning. Now.....can it break through the 30p mark......?
thecynical1
03/4/2017
10:55
If or more likely when the moratorium on fracking by the NT Government is lifted I can see Falccn´s share price suddenly doubling from where it sits now.
loganair
Chat Pages: 81  80  79  78  77  76  75  74  73  72  71  70  Older
Your Recent History
LSE
GKP
Gulf Keyst..
LSE
QPP
Quindell
FTSE
UKX
FTSE 100
LSE
IOF
Iofina
FX
GBPUSD
UK Sterlin..
Stocks you've viewed will appear in this box, letting you easily return to quotes you've seen previously.

Register now to create your own custom streaming stock watchlist.

By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

P:32 V: D:20170819 13:03:49