Falanx Share Discussion Threads

[toadhall1] 19/8/2018 13:34

Evaluating my investment. I was impressed by Mike's proactive interview. Ebitda breakeven in July sounds good. But can't read too much into that as he said it was due to a number of large deliveries (guessing consultancy contract completions), which implies August isn't going to be breakeven. I am excited by the scale of opportunity though.

[nearlythere] 18/8/2018 23:48

Yump

Some time ago ( if memory serves me right) the figure of 5 million was mentioned as breakeven but that was before increased costs so it seems imo more like 8 million now.

[yump] 18/8/2018 22:05

These interviewers never ask the 'elephant in the room' question:

"So, how do you know that your basic business is actually going to be profitable ? Have you a target revenue, beyond which clean profits will flow"

That's not a difficult question, it covers the basis for building a business. The only difficulty is if there is a narrative that for some reason only ever involves talking about revenue levels and margin, while leaving investors to figure out how long it will be until the business is actually profitable.

Its a bit different if you've invented the next big thing and your revenue has gone from £2mln - £10ml - £30mln - then everyone is going to value it based on blue sky estimates.

Whereas when your basic business is only turning over £3mln, you should be able to answer the question about what level of revenue is needed to break into profitability.

[opodio] 18/8/2018 21:28

They haven’t! Lol

Who will pay the wages as cash must be getting hairy low

[nearlythere] 18/8/2018 20:32

richjp
Where Do they say they have enough working capital for the coming year.

[owenski] 18/8/2018 19:07

"They said that they have enough working capital for twelve months so we shall see. As long as orders do start flowing, there need be no need for a placing and even if there is it need not be highly dilutive nor would it need to be deeply discounted to the current share price "

This company's stated ambition is a buy to build business model.

Therefore; there will be many more fund raises, they will be discounted as per previous ones and by their nature, they will obviously dilute existing holders.

[richjp] 18/8/2018 15:43

For me the results are not as bad as the pessimists hoped but not as good as the optimists such us myself would like.

I think they now have everything in place for growth to occur so we will just have to see if the orders start coming in. I used to work in IT sales and I know how long it can take for prospects to turn into firm orders.

I think Mike Read does big himself up a bit too much but he does have a good track record.

They said that they have enough working capital for twelve months so we shall see. As long as orders do start flowing, there need be no need for a placing and even if there is it need not be highly dilutive nor would it need to be deeply discounted to the current share price

[nearlythere] 17/8/2018 11:46

All IMO DYOR

To be fair in the interview he was very clear about falanx direction, growth through acquisition, which imo means shares issues and plenty off them. It is possible they are already talking to other companies and will issue shares to cover the acquisition costs, with a few million pounds added to keep the lights on like last time.

I see no reason to change my view that in 12 to 24 months 1,000,000,000 shares or more will be in issue here.

The bottom line is after 2 years and millions of pounds raised the company is worth 10 million.

I liked the response when the interviewer pointed out the share price has dropped from 55p to 4p.

[opodio] 16/8/2018 21:24

Get the 2p placing out of the way and they may be worth looking at if they can raise five million pounds
Otherwise it’s game over sadly

[opodio] 16/8/2018 21:23

Cash running out wages due in few days

[yump] 16/8/2018 19:31

No, that isn't a financial projection that has any cred. That's just the same old as if you're one of their employees. Try again.

[hamidahamida] 16/8/2018 18:24

Huge upside potential from these levels. Patience is the key here. Fair play to sellers, they're creating a great buying opportunity.Ceo Mike said in one of the interviews he is quite confident in beating 7 Million revenue forecast and that's without V2 MidGard

[yump] 16/8/2018 17:56

Anyone will only look clever if they give some sort of financial projection that they've based their share purchases on.

Otherwise its just a punt and the cleverness will be simply by chance.

Whereas a set of projections and assumptions, with reasoning would have some serious credibility if it came to pass.

Any takers in the supporters club ? or are we simply continuing with the age-old 'rocket' vs. 'doom' narrative.

(It would certainly be a difficult job doing projections. FLX have just fed us a series of relatively random financial information about sales, margins etc. so a lot of assumptions would have to be made. But given a bit of effort, I'm sure the likelihood of EBITDA continuing positive could be assessed. Clean profit another level of difficulty though).

[hampton58] 16/8/2018 16:48

CorrectRevenue growth and adjusted ebitda numbers will explain that going forwardWatch the order book

[ebomber] 16/8/2018 15:20

Need to get the placing out of the way first. Establish a new lower baseline share price and build upon it over the next 12 months.

Sep/Oct 2018 will be an excellent entry point at sub-3 pence.

[nearlythere] 16/8/2018 14:25

Hurst68

Are you saying they do not need to raise money?.

[hurst68] 16/8/2018 13:31

However hard you try to get the price down to your 2 p, I am afraid you will be bitterly disappointed.Directors buying and in the CEO's case been consistently over the last couple of months, what you have to look at is forward order book guidance and hence forward looking Ebitda levels.The quality of the revenue generating clients , with as far as I understand leading global financial institution among them, I would expect a well known small UK fund manager to pop up on the shareholder register very soon.Buying at these ridiculous undervalued levels will look very clever in 2 months time.Let us see and you can buy me a nice lunch with your profits .

[ebomber] 16/8/2018 13:07

Placing at 2.75 pence NOT 2 pence.

Disappointed for the LTH here.

[kaka47] 16/8/2018 12:56

Leak of no placing that's why it's up Your 2p pipe dream is Never going to happen

[colinzeal] 16/8/2018 09:36

I take your point entirely and sometimes I question that myself! I just think there's value in DM and his experience in tech development; he knows the market inside out and knows how to create products that can add value to clients. To be frank, if he wasn't involved I would have sold ages ago. From a personal opinion Mike Read needs to be given more time to deliver, but as far as the other key members of the team are concerned I think they've utterly failed to deliver on what has been, up to this point, a very bullish outlook.

[opodio] 16/8/2018 08:52

leak of placing thats why opening down

[ragpicker] 15/8/2018 23:19

Why on earth do you continue to hold shares in FLX if you think the "company stinks to high heaven". Never mind hovering fingers, trust your instincts and sell your shares tomorrow and invest in a company which you have faith in. I've done just that many times ( only to find the price has doubled 6 months later ) !