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FCO Fairplace

15.50
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Fairplace LSE:FCO London Ordinary Share GB0008480732 ORD 3P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 15.50 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Fairplace Consulting Share Discussion Threads

Showing 26 to 48 of 150 messages
Chat Pages: 6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
11/12/2004
08:48
Cobalt prices are on their way up after a slump that began in August and hit bottom at $15- 16/lb in late November. Suppliers and consumer have agreed that $17/lb appears to be a price all parties can live with while a merchant suggested prices could climb as high as $25/lb, on strong demand in the superalloys sector, before settling lower again. The US Defense Logistics Agency, for its part, has yet to sell any cobalt in the current fiscal year, which began Oct 1, announcing Monday that it sold no cobalt in November.
energyi
15/9/2004
10:17
Cobalt price slide set to continue
By: Gareth Tredway ... '13-SEP-04

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- The price of cobalt, currently sitting at around $23 a pound, is set to move steadily lower over the next five years, according to an analyst's report from one of South Africa's big four banks.

"It seems likely that the price decline, which started at the beginning of 2004, will continue," says Hilton Ashton, a commodities consultant at Absa Corporate & Merchant Bank.

US government stock sales, recycling and new production will be the main drivers behind the price move, according to Ashton. "The rate of decline is unclear and will be dependant on demand fundamentals."

The US is the largest consumer of cobalt, with 45 percent of that metal being used to make super-alloys for aircraft gas turbine engines, according to the US Geological Survey.

Zambia remains the biggest producer, producing about 6,144 tons of refined cobalt in 2002, as a by-product at its copper mines.

In his report, Ashton says that social and political instability of some of the major copper producers can lead to supply disruptions. "Historically, cobalt has had the most volatile pricing of all trace metals," says Ashton. Over the last 20 years the cobalt price has averaged between $3/lb and $30/lb, while the spot price has gone as high as $50/lb.

GFMS Metals, the UK-based consultancy, was referenced in the report, forecasting a cobalt price average of $14.80 between 2001-2010. "The price will be forced lower by growing supply and slowing demand," says the report.

Adastra Minerals, is currently performing a feasibility study on its Kolwezi tailings project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The mammoth 112 million ton deposit has a forecast annual production of 7,000 tons of cobalt over a period of 40 years. This would make the project, the biggest supplier of cobalt in the world, according to Adastra. But that is provided it gets of the ground.

In an interview with Mineweb last month, Bernie Pryor, the company's chief operating officer, said the initial financial models were made at very conservative cobalt prices. "We have done all our financial calculations on a base case of $7/lb cobalt."

According to Pryor the current price of cobalt will not hold. "It is at a very high peak at the moment, which is probably not sustainable in the long term," he said, "I think Kolwezi will actually help stabilise the price because you will have such a large source of supply." The feasibility study at Kolwezi is to be complete by the middle of next year, with production expected two years later.

Kim Shedd, a cobalt specialist at the US Geological Survey was quoted in Ashton's report on his view of the current cobalt market. Shedd says the price should remain tight for a few years, but says there will be a greater supply in the longer term. "If prices remain high, recovery of cobalt from a wider range of feed materials becomes economic, which adds to supply," says Shedd.

"In the meantime, demand will depend on world economic conditions and on the performance of specific industries, such as commercial airlines (super alloys) and portable electronics," says Shedd.

@:

energyi
18/8/2004
17:09
Cobalt, for instance, which is a by-product of nickel mining, is enjoying a great time due to the fact that China has become a significant battery producer in its own right. Demand for cobalt grew briskly in 2003 at approximately 8% to reach an estimated 45,000 tonnes globally, with the fastest growing application in portable rechargeable batteries, followed by special alloys.


The analysts do point out that battery producers have started to look for alternatives, principally nickel and manganese, for battery applications where performance characteristics are considered less critical because of the current high price of cobalt.


GSJB Were is forecasting a price of US$22.00/lb for 2H04 (which is just below the current spot price), to drop to US$15.00/lb for 1H05 and to US$12.00/lb in 2H05. In 2006 the metal's price should revert back to its long term average of US$8/lb.

...

@:

energyi
24/6/2004
21:51
FCO follows Inco (for some odd reason)
energyi
24/6/2004
20:58
FCO up 20% from 47c > 57c!!!! anyone know of a reason? someone on stockhouse thought it was due to pog being up$8.Doesnt look a likely reason to me.
schober
30/5/2004
13:04
That would be a nice, thanks.
a.fewbob
28/5/2004
23:20
80cents, then $1.50 maybe. targerts. no gtees
energyi
28/5/2004
22:28
Looks like an interesting sector. What kind of price targets do you have in mind E?
a.fewbob
28/5/2004
16:52
I am long.

If they get the mine permitted, FCO will rocket

energyi
28/5/2004
16:26
bin watching these for ages; not bought yet

Cobalt demand rockets as user-industries recover
Thursday May 20, 5:08 pm ET
By Rachelle Younglai

schober
28/5/2004
14:24
fco looks good at this price
last year rejected a bid @75p per share
any views or comments wellcome
as a matter of fact bought some today

playitagain
27/4/2004
14:51
Cobalt - will prices hold above $25/lb?

LONDON (Metal-Pages) 15-Apr-04. Cobalt prices have been fairly stable in recent weeks. The market has managed to avoid the sharp correction that has been seen in some of the LME metals. The cobalt market is not so vulnerable to dollar-based selling by investment funds, which has prompted the recent decline in the base metals. In this article, Neil Buxton of GFMS Metals Consulting looks at some recent developments in the cobalt market. If you wish to receive more detailed analysis including supply-demand balance and price forecasts out to 2005 please contact sales@metal-pages.com.

Deals on the WMC Coss website in April have been concluded in a narrow range of $26.70-26.95/lb. The Metal-Pages99.8% cobalt quotation is $26.90-27.75/lb, while the 99.3% price is in a range of $25.80-26.40/lb. The differential between Russian cobalt and high-grade material has narrowed as Norilsk is reducing spot sales to the market from 40% in 2003 to 20% this year in order to boost long-term contract sales. According to the company, cobalt output in 2004 is likely to be kept at 2003 levels, which is estimated at around 4,600 tonnes. It exports nearly 100% of its output.

The market has also been supported by reports of lower exports and shipments in Zambia. According to the Bank of Zambia cobalt exports fell to 3,404 tonnes from 4,025 tonnes in 2002. Output was also lower at 3,202 tonnes compared to 3,990 tonnes in 2002.

Elsewhere in Africa, J&W Investment has yet to make a decision about the re-opening of the Luanshya copper-cobalt mine. The company is focusing on the reactivation of the Buluba mine. A date has yet to be set for the restart.

In our earlier research, we discussed the possibility of lower DLA sales as the surge in prices had seen revenues approach the $64m cap. However, the US Defense National Stockpile Center has announced that it can sell its 6m lb allocation in fiscal 2004 and will not be constrained by the dollar cap.

Demand for cobalt appears to be reasonably firm. Portable battery demand is very strong in the Far East, while there are some signs of a recovery in offtake from the aerospace sector. At this stage, it looks as if the tight fundamentals should support a price above $25/lb in the short-term despite weakness elsewhere in the metals sector.

energyi
17/3/2004
08:40
L.Roulston's latest says, about FCO:
"The company has a projected net present value for the project of $403 million, based on a cobalt price of $28 per pound

energyi
12/1/2004
17:24
FCO above most resistance levels,
apart from this one:


- - -
MORE CALCULATIONS...
Inferred reserves/resources of 3,155,280 tons grading 0.608% cobalt. This equels x 2000 38.368 million pounds. Now we have it in pounds. 38.368 x $25 dollars assuming we could dig all that cobalt up and sell at the spot market price ( a hypotetical ) would equal 959 million US Dollars. Divide that by 108 million shares in Formation would equal $8.81 a share. Now the $25 dollars is what the company nets. $30 minus about $5 for cost of recovery.
The company has 19,184 refined tons of cobalt reserve. They say they will mine only 1500 tons a year so 19,184 divided by 1500 equals 12.79 years. So from known reserves they can mine 12.79 years straight without finding more cobalt.

Selling 1500 tons a year x 2000 pounds equels 3,000,000 Lbs a year x $25 net after expenses equels 75,000,000 dollars a year net divided by 108 million shares in Formation equels per share 69.4 cents profit a year. This does'nt take into account the companies gold/silver/nuclear fuel/copper and other minerals. ITS A BUY!!!

So you are controlling $8.81 cents value for only .49cents US. That is leverage. And this is just cobalt!
Cheers ProTicker

energyi
12/1/2004
17:04
POSTED on Stockhouse BB:
Posted By: charles99 ... Post Time: 1/11/04 01:19

FCO is one of a few companies
around the world where the deposits are pretty much ready to go just waiting for metal prices to rise and an environment for funding to go forward.
Now FCO is one of those companies with a hell of a deposit of cobalt (now $30 lb), an ore in great demand. Think about rising metals prices caused and supported by a falling dollar (which looks to stay fallen)and demand from China and the rest of the third world looking for modern conveniences, and, new technological demand.

This is not a compay looking for ore. This is a company that has the ore!

At this stage of a commodity cycle there are a few companies that are like fCO i.e. they have the ore: Here are a couple: UMJ (has ore), FAN (has ore), PFN (has ore), EXR, etc.

One has to make sure though that the ore body doesn't have too high of hurdles to overcome to production. For instance access, political or envirmental hurdles too high to allow production for a long time, if at all. I would put RDV and CCM in this category (although I own a few of RDV) and I like CCM (but it never moves)? -

Why buy exploration stocks when one can buy great deposits for pennies - like FCO.

The only exploration companies I buy in this stage are ones that are very good bets. Not ones just drilling general goat pasture-lol. MUM looks like they are into something pretty interesting (hihg grade nickel), but the size is a complete unkown, so it is high speculation with a potential high reward.

FCO could be tremendous because more than any metal I know of cobalt is unique (maybe silver)i.e. we could literally end up with a huge shortage caused by unexpected demand and interrupteds supply (All of Africa has problems and Zaire/Zambia is where much fo the cobalt comes from.

Well, good luck to us - this could be a barn burner if we get 40lb+ ore!!!

energyi
18/11/2003
21:59
Cobalt now up to $15.80 in the space of a couple of days.
matt court
16/11/2003
22:28
Cobalt prices - melt up.
Price increased from $10.60 mid Oct to $14.90 14.11.03.

Formation Capital to benefit from stronger prices. Soon to be the only producer of this strategic metal in the US. Has a mine to market business.

Matt

matt court
22/7/2003
17:35
One of the newsletter writers (DM) put this out:

Formation Capital Corporation's (FCO.TSX Senior Board) Idaho Cobalt Project (ICP) is becoming more valuable as cobalt metal prices have been rising quickly during the last few months. Cobalt metal prices are presently trading at a 23 month high of US$10.50 - $11.00 /lb. Prices bottomed in the US$6.25 range and rose quickly once it was demonstrated that such low prices were not sustainable and the majority of the world's cobalt producers were losing money. Supply is now very tight with little new supply on the horizon. Traders are predicting that the cobalt market could be in serious deficit in 2004/2005 and are predicting prices of US$18 - $25 by next year. Silver Investor did an analysis of this company several months ago, and many of the dynamics of silver apply to cobalt.

As a reminder, at cobalt prices of US$18.00, Formation's Idaho Cobalt Project (ICP) has a NPV of US$266,290,351 and an IRR (discounted 8%) of 127%. Even at cobalt's' lowest prices in almost 20 years, the ICP would still have been making money. The mine is approximately 70% of the way through the Federal mine permitting process and has encountered no formal opposition and has extensive government support.

Formation's intentions are to complete the permitting process and place the ICP into production in 2005. In addition, they are striving to restart their wholly owned Big Creek Silver-gold refinery, with a present capacity of 10 million ounces of silver, by the 4th quarter of 2003. This should be followed in 2004-2005 by retrofitting the hydrometallurgical portion of the Big Creek Complex to process cobalt materials from both the ICP and elsewhere.

The newest twist on this company is the lowering of the price of all outstanding warrants to the 15 cent level. This is designed to both reward the individuals and institutions who have backed the company and to remove the overhang on the stock that warrants can cause. If all outstanding warrants were exercised the company would receive over 4 million dollars Canadian.

energyi
03/2/2003
20:02
Fairplace, Interims are out tomorrow.
boram
02/12/2002
10:51
From David Morgan:

He reports on Formation Capital (t.FCO):
I first became interested in this company during my visit to Calgary. What caught my immediate attention was the fact that the company had just purchased the old Sunshine Mining facility about two hours from where I live. It was not until meeting with the principals of the company that I learned the overall objective of this unique company. Although the company does have gold and silver in their overall makeup, it is cobalt that will make this company a famous.

Cobalt is used mainly in the production of steel. There are secondary uses in catalysts, alloys, and batteries. Cobalt use has been growing at an annual rate of over six percent. Nearly all cobalt mining is byproduct mining similar to silver. In the case of cobalt, it is most often associated with nickel, and also found with copper and platinum group metals.

The main growth aspect to cobalt is the Lithium-Ion battery. These batteries are the battery of choice for nearly all high tech portable devices. These types of batteries allow repetitive charging and provide very satisfactory power in a light weight platform.

The area that interests me the most is the potential use in fuel cells. However, before fuel cell usage becomes widespread and known, the Lithium battery is ideal for usage in electric vehicles. The fuel cell area is one that fascinates me, and is a potential market for our subscribers to reinvest some of our profits from the gains we will realize from our silver investments. Presently, the usage of electric vehicles is just above the science fiction stage, but as oil concerns, the environmental movement and overall economic conditions develop further more and more alternative means of transportation will develop.

Since the near future will require more cobalt, and looking further out perhaps the fuel cell, it is to our advantage to invest early before this element is well known.

The cobalt market does respond to overall economic conditions. The price usually turns down in recessions and firms in economic growth cycles. Interestingly, the US Defense Logistics Agency provides approximately seven percent of total demand and this source should be exhausted by mid 2004. Just as the DLA was instrumental in providing silver for so many years at prices that will someday look pitiful, they continue providing strategic minerals to market with no thought to the future or so it seems.

What intrigues me about Formation is their mineralogy. Unlike most cobalt deposits, this deposit is not associated with nickel. What this means is the extraction of pure cobalt is extremely cost effective, furthermore the potential byproducts are copper and gold. Since Formation's deposit is one of the purest cobalt situations, the leverage to cobalt prices is high.

Moving on, one of the best ways to maximize profit for any company is to become vertically integrated. What this means in plain English, is to keep as much activity in house as possible as long as it is cost effective to do so. I must state that I am impressed with the management of Formation because of their recent acquisition of the old Sunshine silver refinery. This refinery will allow the company to refine cobalt in house and have much tighter control of their business. Further, the facility was toured by me with some of the principals of the company and it appeared to be in reasonable shape. The facility was purchased for perhaps five percent of what new construction would cost. In order for the facility to upgrade and be able to produce cobalt at maximum efficiency it is estimated that an additional $8 million is required. This may become available through a government assisted bank loan.

The plan is to produce a number of value added cobalt products, such as cobalt oxide, lithiated-cobalt, and cobalt cathode. These products sell at a premium to standard cobalt. For example cobalt oxide was selling for $39.50 US when cobalt was selling at $28.00 US.

The mine is forecast to produce 1,500 tonnes of cobalt a year, which is approximately 4% of world production. This would make Formation the leading producer of primary cobalt in North America. Clubb Capital Limited did an analysis of potential cash flow as follows:

The potential cash flow before taxes and interest is over 28 million U.S. per year without external cobalt feed. Assuming the shares issued doubled for capital requirements, then the EBITDA per share would be $0.37. If we use a modest P/E of eight and a 25% tax rate, this would value each share at $2.15 U.S.

Two cautions here, one key is the price of cobalt, secondly how well will any business do in a recessionary environment? First, cobalt prices have started to firm and even though I feel we will have a large downturn in business, there is also a near certainty of war. Do to the need for manufacturing during a war environment, especially high grade steels; it should keep cobalt prices moving higher over time.

energyi
10/7/2002
15:38
FCO acquires the Refinery:

Formation Capital (TSE:FCO) -- Formation today reported it’s given formal notice under its option agreement that it will buy the Big Creek refinery of bankrupt Sunshine Mining. The Vancouver firm -- which aims to become the only integrated cobalt miner and chemical refiner in the United States -- has already paid $675,000 toward purchase of the Silver Valley installation. It plans to process concentrates there from a cobalt mine it’s developing in Idaho’s Lemhi County, as well as outside concentrates. The company says a recently closed $2.3 million private placement will help finance an early settlement, giving it a “significant discount” from the $1.575 million sales price.

An interesting little outfit, recent filings disclose that over 13% of Formation stock is owned by Benjamin Torchinsky and his wife. Torchinsky is the well-regarded founder of AGRA (Canada’s second largest engineering firm before a merger two years ago) and recipient of the Sir John Kennedy Medal and other honors. FCO was trading recently on the Toronto Stock Exchange at about US .30.

Source:

energyi
19/6/2002
09:03
Cobalt cash
An audit report will soon be released on how Zambia's state mining company lost as much as US$60 million exporting cobalt to the Bahamas-based Metal Resources Group. That was in President Frederick Chiluba's time and his critics want criminal charges pressed against officials involved in the deal. MRG threatens to sue the auditors if the report is released but has so far failed to explain the losses convincingly. Under pressure from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the Chiluba government ordered an audit report in June 2000 after it emerged that state-owned Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines had sold hundreds of tonnes of cobalt for far less than the market value to MRG, under a 1998 contract. The auditors were meant to determine whether these losses resulted from negligence or fraud.

...The cobalt market is dominated by MRG and Swiss-based Glencore, a commodities company established by South African sanctions-buster Marc Rich. Glencore also bid for the marketing contract with ZCCM in 1998, as did Finland’s OMG, but lost because of MRG’s offer of prepayment to the cash-strapped ZCCM. Also under scrutiny is MRG’s purchase of 6,000 tn. of ZCCM’s cobalt concentrate for $12.5 million and its onsale to OMG for some $55 million.

energyi
17/6/2002
06:52
Cobalt seems to be moving higher recently:

Type............... Current Price / Previous Price
Cobalt
Cathodes 99.8% min. 7.8/8.3 $/lb. / 6.9/7.2 $/lb.
11-Jun-02

Cobalt Ing 99.3
Ingots 99.3% min... 7.7/8.2 $/lb. / 6.5/6.9 $/lb.
11-Jun-02

LINK:

energyi
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