F&C Private Equity Share Discussion Threads

[vacendak] 09/11/2016 10:25

Farage said it: "Trump is Mr Brexit". This was unpredictable.

I did predict something to my relatives: I was certain that it was going to be a blow-out, a very decisive victory for either of them. The volatility of the electorate was extreme.

I had missed Brexit, going to bed thinking that nothing would happen and got surprised in the morning. I saw myself as a realist eurosceptic (hate EU, but would never have thought!). I missed History.

Last night, woke-up around 3.00 a.m. and checked... stayed awake to ensure I lived through History. :)

[spectoacc] 09/11/2016 09:37

Gold should prove a good place to be - a lot of uncertainty ahead. Markets some way off pricing it yet IMO.

Should point out that I didn't predict a Trump victory - just didn't want to be caught out if the unexpected happened.

[vacendak] 09/11/2016 09:20

Good call!

I have some gold, so was expecting the price to shoot up. It did spike during the night, but is back to what it was last week because the $ tanked against £. Zero sum game on my gold. :(

So, it is June 24th all over again then. Well, not exactly true, I am currently only losing half as much this time. Property IT up a bit actually.

[skyship] 09/11/2016 09:07

Well done StA - it's all in your moniker of course!

[spectoacc] 09/11/2016 08:10

Once a trader, always a trader.

[spectoacc] 08/11/2016 15:07

Must admit I sold a few more today - going a little more into cash ahead of tomorrow's election result.

[skyship] 07/11/2016 08:31

Specto - Agreed, would be very happy to see all my PE holdings trading at a premium. My views on FPEO are purely based on the outlier principle - nothing more scientific than that!

[spectoacc] 07/11/2016 07:35

Thanks @rambutan2, interesting.

@Sky - can't disagree since I offloaded a few below current price, but if there's a next PE IT to trade at a premium, I'd fancy it to be FPEO. Dividend commitment (never less than the prior year), performance, under-promising & over-delivering, management, quality of holdings - iii's on something like a 20% premium.

Hopefully the others can head towards iii & FPEO, rather than the other way round ;)

[rambutan2] 05/11/2016 18:17

Just a reminder that the SEP III holding is in reality a holding in UK unicorn skyscanner. FPEO have never made a big deal about it, and because they still publish fairly opaque accounts i'm not sure how widely known this is.

[skyship] 05/11/2016 13:30

Interesting to note that the next Qtly Update will be in c3weeks time.

At 294p the shares are now trading at a very slim 6.4% discount to the Jun'16 NAV of 314.08p. Even after an unlikely rise of 10% the NAV discount would still be just 14.9% - this compares with the average discount of peers at 22.5%

Unless FPEO is to be the next takeover candidate, surely the current price may be vulnerable to disappointment. Surely time to take profits...and congratulations to those that rode this thus far.

[spectoacc] 02/11/2016 13:01

As it's a quiet day.. Would also note that SVI went at a 0.6% premium to its end-July NAV. Or more accurately, the assets sold for that - c.£36m to come off in costs before shareholders see their money. Still - HarbourVest aren't buying the assets at a 0.6% premium because they think they'll make a few % in profit. Is part of my rationale for thinking FPEO wouldn't be unreasonable trading at a premium, at least to last NAV if not to current.

[spectoacc] 02/11/2016 06:56

I should have used UTL as an example.. :)

And good point re yield, & also property ITs.

[vacendak] 01/11/2016 21:06

If there were a magic formula/ratio to identify the "good" buy, everybody would be using it.
That Z-score thingy is a bit like the P/E ratio: It depends...

As you pointed out, PE is a bit special too.
Some discount values need a bit of work and investigation to understand: UIL Ltd (UTL) being a glaring example.

I do not mind a large discount especially on stocks that give a good yield - when covered properly of course, as is indeed the case with UIL. Then again, I take some modicum of income through FCPT (property) that is not covered... but property ITs are also in a league of their own.

While I certainly look at the numbers, I tend to invest based on the background, philosophy and strategy of the trust/company. FPEO tells a good enough story and people commenting on this thread have not uncovered any horror, so I am in.

[vacendak] 01/11/2016 15:08

Which is why I put expensive between quotes. :)

Recently the share price has shot-up a lot more than the NAV, I guess this is what has pushed the "Z-score" mentioned in the article.

[spectoacc] 01/11/2016 13:39

Expensive vs historic discount, expensive vs other PE, but I'd argue "cheap" in a world post-SVI & cheap for its quality/commitment to dividend/under-promising and over-delivering.

Discount vs NAV depends on views on NAV :)

Mind you, offloaded a few in the early 280's so don't listen too much to me! Knew I'd never buy those ones back lower.

[vacendak] 01/11/2016 11:37

FPEO has been judged "expensive" lately:
hxxp://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/citywire-news/investment-trust-watch-why-i-sold-perpetual-income

[vacendak] 13/10/2016 10:00

Dividend ex-date today.

[spectoacc] 04/10/2016 15:19

You're in profit @vacendak ;)

[vacendak] 03/10/2016 21:45

Mmm... got in at 274 around mid-day, but FPEO closed the day at 273.5 so I shall not complain too much as I might already be in the black by tomorrow evening.
Always a bit of spread with PE from what I have read.

[skyship] 01/10/2016 08:07

Agreed, annoying that; though of the 20 PE trusts I track half report only quarterly or 6monthly:

Qtly/6monthly reporters:
==================
BPM,CDI,DNE,FPEO,HGT, ICGT,LMS,MTH,NRI & OCL

Monthly reporters:
==============
APEF,HVPE,JPEL,MVI,NBPE,PEQ,PEY,PIN,SEP & SVI

[vacendak] 30/9/2016 21:14

Sky

Thanks for the tips, but my ISA is with F&C so I was only considering ICGT or FPEO to save on charges.

Putting a toe in the water with direct investment in PE. Very likely loooong term, so I am more motivated by the investment philosophy than purely the discount.

I could only get the NAV from the quarterly reports and factsheets for FPEO.
Is it only so or am I missing something?
I have trawled the RNS without luck.
PIN updates the NAV monthly for instance.

[skyship] 30/9/2016 14:41

"..it looks like I might put a groat or two in it after all, as it has now been dropping for a couple of days."

IMO even at the reduced 270p the discount is still a mere 14%; and Morningstar estimate the current NAV at only 1% higher at 317.6p....so FPEO might still be considered expensive versus peers.

Discounting the rather special plays with 30%+ discounts (DNE, LMS, MVI & OCL), the remaining two higher discounts looking attractive might be APEF @ 105p (26.4%) & JPEL @ 105c (25%).