Euro.Mins. Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 18/4/2008 14:51

Canadians appear to like it!
EPM is catching up to LER so far.

[chipperfrd] 18/4/2008 14:33

I just wonder who has acquired who?

Looks like another 60.8m shares to be issued. EUM shareholders get diluted to 81% of the new entity.
But the current cash situation gets resolved by the $25m loan @ 10%.

[platts] 18/4/2008 14:31

this is Really Good News- fasten seat belts we are going into a new orbit.

[reghollis] 18/4/2008 14:17

wake up holders, youve been suspended and acquired lero gold.

[p bear] 18/4/2008 07:36

Don't think canccord are shorting since most of the sells are on down ticks.

One of those buys at 46 was mine, as echoed will probably see 10% fall again today. I'll be in for another lot. Double bottom here. Will settle and bounce soon.

Chart shows a very different picture to reality. Is the need for a few million bridging finace really going to stop a monester cash generateation with all the investment in place and some fledging cash flow?

Rather put money into EUM at these levels than into the bank, even if I don't know where the bottom is yet, good to average down.

FYI, not really the same but a company I am another big fan of IFM (EPIC: IFL) had a similar trend with a high of 155 on a newly commissioned plant, loss of interest and production problems saw price fall to 70 (while their product Cr rose in price). I stuck with it (buying heavily at 75 and on the way down) and kept averaging down and turned a healthy profit since all came good once things settled and the market woke up.

It's frustrating and scary to see such a slide I know. Keep the faith.

[strow] 17/4/2008 21:08

Could canna be shorting the stock to buy the warrants lower?they would gain both ways and play the gearing on the warrants when they close the shorts on the main stock-i reckon thats their game as i think there may well be some short sales going on on the upticks

[chrismisson555] 17/4/2008 20:53

Looks like closing at 0.8

[chrismisson555] 17/4/2008 20:51

T20 could be a good bet albeit risky considering the current slide.

Canncord still piling up those warrants

[chrismisson555] 17/4/2008 20:49

UKG timing is very important now because we both have been hit when we brought in the 52-57 range.

Hard to predict the bottom, maybe if we end up with a sub 40p price the spread could reduce to an ask price of 41.5p.

I still believe in this company and have set aside money for 75,000, just wont be jumping in until I see a positive light.

[chrismisson555] 17/4/2008 20:33

79 cents now that is some fall today, why do we still have such a big spread in the UK

Well I maybe able to reenter at 40p next week, crazy though, is their actually a mine?

120,000 sell in UK points to more bad news

0.75 looking like next support level, someone is buying big though looking at that 800,000 earlier in the week.

Its almost looks like a mine going into administration, if we didnt have that hedge life would be so different!

[donaferentes] 17/4/2008 20:28

5 buys at about 46p 14k total today on AIM so a few PIs see value here. Echo your sentiments UKG.

[chrismisson555] 17/4/2008 17:30

Looking to hit 40p soon.

[donaferentes] 17/4/2008 12:04

11% dilution. i would hope the share price is sufficiently discounted in recent weeks not to need to issue new shares much below current 45p??

[ukgeorge] 17/4/2008 11:14

also canccord are buying all the warrants they can get their hands on they know this company is undervalued. hope we dont get taken out for a silly price.

[p bear] 17/4/2008 11:07

I don't know if a PP is a certainty. I also thinks it sucks and there must me many other ways to raise cash during a sort term period with a huge cash flow so close and sales of Cu already taking place.

I am think PP might happen because of this note from a big EUM supporter/underwritter, Canaccord:


Event
On14 April2008 European Minerals reported results for2007.

Impact
Negative.Financials indicate a funding shortfall during the second quarter of 2008.

Action
We continue to recommend European Minerals as a BUY and have reduced our target
price from C$1.95 to C$1.70 per share.

Valuation
We continue to value European Minerals on the basis of a multiple of asum-of-the-parts NAV valuation, assuming our peak gold price scenario of US$1,000/oz and a 5%discount rate.We have assumed an equity issue of US$30 million is undertaken at a 10%discount to the current share price, which reduces our estimated NAV from C$2.04 to C$1.81 per share.We maintained our target multiple of 0.95, as a result of which our target price decreased from C$1.95 to C$1.70 per share.

Next catalyst
We consider that securing the funding required to cover its cash outflows for the
remainder of this year and for the remainder of this quarter in particular is the key hurdle for the company. Assuming this is completed, progress towards the revised target for commercial production of September is likely to be the focus of attention.


Plus a PP is what happened last time in this situation.

[donaferentes] 17/4/2008 10:35

thanks PB. as you say, having waited so long, a little more patience is now required. shame about short term w/c shortfall for the sake of a few months. wouldn't a 6 month bridge loan (at eye-watering rate no doubt) be the least dilutive method, assuming main bank won't grant the sensible indulgence requested on first repayment date. PP seems a bit of a sledge hammer to crack this nut?? unless they combine it with immediate expansion programme to make a virtue of a necessity.

[p bear] 17/4/2008 09:34

Into high 50s and over 60, I would guess end Q2, start Q3. So 2-4months. If there is a PP then that will have a negative affect, but a good reserve update can easily counter that. With so much battering this will quickly gain ground when sellers have been shaken out and more production updates are released. Summer in Kazakhstan will make life much easier for EUM and Cu and Aa prices look strong going forward.

This has been a waiting game for years now, a few more months is not going to make a big difference. I would imagine this will move up quickly when the time comes rather than creep. It doesn't need much volume and the lead is on the TSX.

[donaferentes] 16/4/2008 18:45

P Bear - what time scale are you looking at for recovery back to say moving up though 50p level?

[p bear] 16/4/2008 18:27

Agree with with UKGeorge on private placement, but could finance from elsewhere not 100% there will be a PP. Big picture still good. Double bottom certainly. Anything below 50 good, below 45, better. Once a bottom is found and we have some stability share price will recover to 60p level IMO.

[strow] 16/4/2008 13:56

Not sure about a falling knife any more-looks to me like it is in double bottom territory,but we shall see-it cant have too much lower to go,but agree if you are out,then there is no need to rush-im in and will add to my warrants if i can at 32c(if they get that low)

[ukgeorge] 16/4/2008 13:34

i think what is going to happen being realistic is that we will have an annoucement in the next week or two that they have agreed a private placement at around 45p hopefully no lower. to raise some money just as a buffer untill full production is sorted.
when they did the last pp the share price dropped down to the level of the pp then we had the news. i think that is what is about to happen. a better outcome would be if they could just put the first debt repayment back. this is what williams was trying to do but we still await news on that.

[ohisay] 16/4/2008 09:25

This is a falling knife best avoided for the time being.
Sold at 58p and watching but not remotely tempted until I see something materially positive for the short term.