Establishment Investment Share Discussion Threads

[longshanks] 19/6/2009 12:48

gspan ltd. seem to be hungry for shares. Free float must be quite tight which goes some way to explaining why the price is so volatile.

[roughandtumbleone] 18/6/2009 20:14

My god... not a single post and not a single trade!

Now that is something worth writing about!

[roughandtumbleone] 17/6/2009 19:09

Greek,

My point was the share price has tumbled below Kuoni purchase of 31% of shares and all the positives one can draw from that situation.

The volumes have been terrible and it only takes a couple of sells at the end of the day for the mm's to drop the share by 11%! I appreciate the share price rose dramatically but feel the drop has been overdone to say the least.

I could of course be very wrong, I just don't see the negatives that could bring the share price down by half in a little over a week?

It was my understanding that Kuoni paid over 50pence per share, I believe Explorer gave the exact figure. What has changed, absolutely zero... so IMO the sell off (very mild volumes) has been well overdone and we are due a hefty rise on the back of any buys.

What do we think guys? Your opinions (good or bad) welcome!?

Regards,

R&T

[greek islander] 17/6/2009 16:57

I guess the market has been feeling very fragile re micro and low caps this week and ETC would easily be one of those to suffer. My whole portfolio has taken a downturn this week and we can just hope that things improve.
Sometime this sort of thing is partially a tree shake by the MMs to hit some stop loss levels and free up stock. Often followed by a big rise which tends to hit badly those fragile PIs who have sold out of panic.
Let's hope so anyway.

[jonny flame] 17/6/2009 16:56

Hopefully we won't see JHL here.

[roughandtumbleone] 17/6/2009 16:29

Share price now below the Kuoni announcement???

Who said there is any sense to this game!?

[jonny flame] 16/6/2009 18:13

Greek Islander - in regards post 256, that was a good summary, thanks for that.

[greek islander] 16/6/2009 14:41

ok GHF best wishes

Good do with ETC beginning to recover now

[glasshalfull] 16/6/2009 14:02

O/T - Thanks GI....food for thought.
It the ATE market that is the driver for the company given the growth in Elite and reason behind my investment. It's profits have almost reached the market cap of the company.
Perhaps I've backed the wrong horse. The figures looked extremely good to me and no doubt there will be further clarity on results which should be announced in a few weeks.

Appreciate you having a look and apologies for clogging the thread...I'll speak to you over there if there's anything further of note.

Cheers,
GHF

[greek islander] 15/6/2009 22:34

OK GHF, will go look and get back to you.
Yes. I have long given up on ETC results which is one of the reasons I abandoned my shares and took a substantial profit over a year ago when their was some serious price momentum at the time. The results time after time are almost unfathomable with only the revenue figure apparently reliable. The bottom line is not a straight unwavering one by any means.
I felt at the time, that we were dealing with a company of immense potential, that were way out of control, on their own, doing what they pleased with no reference to shareholders. However, along the way, the revenue was soaring and they were building a very dominant position in their part of the world. Acquisitions further underlined this. They had been a punt and I had cashed in. Maverick seemed to be a good description.
I subsequently kept a watching brief and my selling decision was proven to be justified as the share price dropped by almost two thirds, though leaving me wondering if, at some stage, the management might be reigned in and some level of order might ensue as they became a giant company and maybe answerable to a higher body (not AIM I might add).
Punters on this BB typically were unable to persuasively use actual figures to argue the case. It is always very much about the market position and potential - I did not disagree, just I wanted more.
Then Kuoni came in and the rest is history. Suddenly the assurance of seeing a large established worldwide company with an excellent reputation, sticking their nose in here, was all I needed to be enticed back in at an price similar to when I had bought initially. I just hope GHF, that unlike us, they can make some sense of the accounts and the results. I look forward very much to this adventure continuing. Great fun!

[glasshalfull] 15/6/2009 21:17

I've had these on my watchlist for quite some time.....but not yet in.

Tested water on Friday to ascertain volume and price within the spread...but not much doing. Stock tightly held IMHO.
Still looking at latest result announcement and to be honest I'm struggling a bit to get my head round it all. Been an investor for over 20 years but these are a hard set of results to interpret.

Reckon I need to go back to school.

O/T - GI, would value your opinion on LIN. Noticed a great post by egoi over on TMF last month and been researching since. If you trawl back the last few posts on the thread the links are there.


Regards,
GHF

[greek islander] 15/6/2009 18:09

Things change - yes I think it is a good buy with Kuoni represented on the board to keep an eye on things.
Might result in a better run ship. Tighter fundamentals.

[jonny flame] 15/6/2009 17:41

Greek Islander - you have changed your tune on this share! I might pick up a few more at these prices.

[greek islander] 15/6/2009 15:09

Yes Moneymonster

I have added a few more as the share price dropped and I will have soon more money available waiting for the right moment to get back in for more still.
Is almost back to when the Kuoni buy was announced.

[themoneymonster2] 15/6/2009 14:52

Some good buying today and Friday. MM's marked it down as I think they need some shares. Cash of around 35p and eps said to be around 9p so i do not see why we are on a p/e of 0.25! This should be at least 80p now. P/E x 5 plus cash!

[themoneymonster2] 12/6/2009 19:48

I added around 13.5k shares today but as yet not showing!

[longshanks] 09/6/2009 19:42

My take on it is that MM's are a cynical bunch. In an illiquid stock like this - they pump up the price on positive news because of interest...but once the froth has gone...they can squeeze out weak, short-term, holders by dropping the price. Net effect is that they go short whilst they push the price up. They then drop the price to be able to buy back stock, balance their books and make a profit.

I am immensely impressed by just how patient (and cynical) they can be.

One thing to bear in mind with ETC is that this move by Kuoni will not have gone unnoticed by some small-cap funds and private-client stock brokers. It could be that there are some sizeable buy orders in the market but at a very competitive average price. MMs will look to fill such orders as best they can and this type of "sustained tree shake" is just one technique they can apply.

I liken it to "killing the game" in Football.

Thing to do with stocks in positions such as this is to look at the fundamentals for reassurance - buy on weakness and stick to your investment guns. I have an average of below 40p but am confident that this will bounce back above 50p before the summer is out....been wrong before...but...this looks like a steal.

[greek islander] 09/6/2009 18:21

Reaction to the results?

[roughandtumbleone] 09/6/2009 18:16

Any thoughts as to the continued drop and a significant fall again today?

You can't even put it down to profit taking because the volumes are incredibly small. I actually read the Kuoni holdings as a really positive move for the company and yet the sentiment seems to think otherwise.

What do people think?

Kind regards,

R&T

[greek islander] 09/6/2009 14:50

roughandtumble, longshanks,

Not surprising really after all we are only shareholders!

[longshanks] 09/6/2009 14:24

I believe it was in the note relating to the acquisition of shares by Kuoni: namely to allow a single shareholder to hold more than 30% of the equity....they plan to make the limit 33%

[roughandtumbleone] 09/6/2009 14:03

Unless I am being incredibly blind, I can not find any information on the ETC WEB site that refers to any info regarding this EGM and why it has been called, what resolution have been asked etc etc.

If anyone can enlighten me, I would appreciate it.

Kind regards,

R&T

[greek islander] 09/6/2009 09:58

roughandtumble

Yes I had expected the word to get around and the share price to hold up in the short term. Again I am very disillusioned with the management when it comes to PR in that this is a big coup and they should have shouted it from the rooftops.
We are seeing the worst side of Chinese managed companies. They forget they are positioned in a UK market and that UK buyers expect certain basics. It is not China where everything is done on the basis of honour and respect. We demand real figures and trading updates.
Other fledgling Chinese companies such as Geong have been very remiss in the past in not considering their shareholders enough and then wondering why the share price floundered. They seem to have learned from experience.