Establishment Investment Share Discussion Threads

[explorer88] 03/6/2009 08:46

looks like we could see a rise back to the 80p level on the back of the Kuoni news

[explorer88] 03/6/2009 08:32

morning GI - not many shares available. I did a small top up at the opening (2,000 @ 50p), hoping that the share price would drift down and i could buy more later - but the share price seems to be going up :-( ... don't think i'll get a chance to buy more at 50p, let alone initial purchase price of 37p.

[greek islander] 03/6/2009 08:21

That is just what the doctor ordered for ETC.
Even I might be tempted back in.

[explorer88] 03/6/2009 08:12

Here is the announcement:



Very positive for ETC that Kuoni are taking a 31% stake in ETC and nominating a director to ETC's board. Good synergy too for joint inbound/outbound growth in ETC's business ... :-)

[longshanks] 03/6/2009 08:04

It should...I bought a few last week...good timing I think

[explorer88] 03/6/2009 08:02

share price should soar today on Kuoni news :-)

[greek islander] 01/6/2009 15:13

Still feel that I would have liked access to more specific figures. I have been looking at the financials available and find them unclear. That may be my misreading of the details. Maybe I am missing something.
Also you must be aware (I was in China for three weeks over New Year) that as they say , the amount of traffic increased dramatically at this time but as they didn't say, partly because the previous year had seen the worst weather in decades and an extremely high degree of cancellations for flights, buses and trains, so it is not comparing like with like. I don't like the way that this moot point is swept under the carpet to help to prove a tip. Makes me wary. A good forecaster never hides the negatives. Despite this, obviously the figures are clearly better than last year. It's just being able to get ones teeth into them. Revenue forecasts may well be correct but it is the element of costs that concern me.
I see evidence of massively increased expenditure in order to increase gross turnover. This of course is quite normal with a small fast growing concern.
Funds are obviously there ( a war chest) for acquisitions and it seems for more later.
Others on this BB have voiced similar concerns in the past. If this company had floated on any other senior exchange other than AIM one might feel more confident.
By the way, when contributors on this BB have voiced their concerns to the company directly, they have generally been met with a wall of silence. In the days when I was a holder I never once got a satisfactory reply to my questions.
OK invest a small amount if you will but I remain more than cautious here.
Best of luck.

[greek islander] 01/6/2009 14:16

Thanks moneymonster
Will study your emails - appreciated

[themoneymonster2] 01/6/2009 14:02

Seymour Pierce had EPS forecasts of 8.6p for 2009, but these do not take into account the recent acquisition. New forecasts are due to be released after the 2008 results in June.

Let's assume eps is only the 8.6p above, put the shares on a low p/e of say 5 gives a target price of 43p, but they also have cash of 35p per share so add that on and in my opinion that should be the minimal target = 78p or double current sp!

[themoneymonster2] 01/6/2009 13:27

Thursday's update from James F:

Et-China (ETC) - Acquisition update
Et-China, the travel agent operating in southern China, has announced that the integration of its Yoee.com acquisition is progressing well. Since the time of the acquisition back in March, the combined business has seen a 45% increase in net revenue whilst benefiting from the cost savings highlighted at the time of the acquisition with only an 11% increase in the combined operating costs of the combined entity against proforma numbers for the same period last year. The firm is also eyeing further cost reductions through the integration of the two websites and through redundancies.

Et-China's aim has always been to act as consolidator in the fragmented Chinese travel market, and it seems it can fulfil this role admirably. The firm is obviously doing a great job of extracting synergies from the Yoee.com business and, with more benefits to come further down the line, upgrades are sure to follow. The Chinese travel market is getting back on its feet, with the internet business seeing a massive ten-fold increase in ticket sales during Chinese New Year. With net cash backing roughly equivalent to the entire market cap, Et-China shares are ridiculously cheap. Buy, at 35p.

[greek islander] 01/6/2009 13:24

Moneymonster
He may well be right - I am just not comfortable with the serious lack of transparency of the management. I rarely take a tip from a so-called expert as I often find they have their own hidden agenda. Just 30-odd years of investing. However he could always be right as it is only my opinion.
Would be interested if you could post his argument here, then I can investigate it in depth.
Best of luck hope you are proven right.

[themoneymonster2] 01/6/2009 12:36

Thanks for your comments. James Faulkner at watshot flagged these up last week and said it was a ridiculous price so i think i will take his advice over yours! Results to Dec 08 are imminent so we will know more then, also the chart looks pretty appealing! All the best

[greek islander] 01/6/2009 12:28

Moneymonster

A lot of us have fallen for this one.
The problem is it promises a lot, loses big money and is very opaque in its dealings.
Seems to be very heavily borrowed but obviously big cash facility from banks. Expanding indeed it does seem to be, egged on by the demand for increased travel. Buying up the odd minnow.
If you think the story here is exciting then invest but it is a blind investment as it is impossible to work out the fundamentals. This is a Chinese stock that benefits from the lack of AIM controls.
It could be a big long term winner but experienced punters know that it is not just about being in the right sector at the right time it is also about good management and this one looks pretty incompetent in terms of transparency and financial activity.
A VERY risky punt that might possibly come off but I am sure that there are better bets in the Chinese travel market but those stocks are not on AIM.
I sold at the peak of the market because results were VERY delayed without any explanation. Made a killing but pleased to leave this well alone for the moment

Be warned.

[themoneymonster2] 01/6/2009 11:54

Bought in here. Ridiculous price. Trading at cash level so business in for free!

[jonny flame] 27/4/2009 16:46

Surprised this has not fallen more today.

Greek Islander - as a China play I like JHL, it also fits with my long term energy view. Mainly I'm looking at resources which are indirectly or directly linked to China, such as FND & PRL. I like the gold story to and have holdings in NGL, GDP & MARL.

The future is China!

[greek islander] 24/4/2009 09:32

Jonny

Yes I was incredibly lucky and for once bought at the low point and sold at the very high point. Doesn't happen often.
If you are looking for Chinese multibaggers there are quite a few out there that have strong fundamentals and low pes. You will almost certainly know them already.
I am convinced that RCG on a PE of 2.5 is by far the best of them all and I am pretty certain that eventually (maybe next year) it will hit 500p from its current 56.5p. It has made three absolutely amazing revenue earning acquisitions that will impact in a massive way on its next full year results. WCC, CHNS and GNG are all seriously undervalued and under-rated. ETC should be a good play but because of the reasons I have stated I would keep well clear. They are on a mad headlong dash for turnover and don't seem to be at all concerned about overheads, speed of payments in or reporting to shareholders: a recipe for disaster!

[jonny flame] 24/4/2009 09:18

Greek Islander - good points, they do need to be more open. I might contact the company and discuss some of my concerns.

Only bought 500 quids worth so it's not a major investment.

I do like the story though.

[greek islander] 21/4/2009 17:31

We have here what I thought was a very exciting Chinese company. One I sold out from making a huge profit, because the management remain totally opaque and anyone investing is doing so blindly unable to see all the figures, work out the real financials - a recipe for disaster.
Without visibility we do not know what is happening and whether we have a good team driving it.
Quite the reverse. Results were delayed and delayed and delayed losing lots of PIs and reducing the share price dramatically. We just don't like it when we can't work out the fundamentals for ourselves.
In theory - as someone who has spent a lot of time in the Far East and only returned recently from China - this is the ideal acquisitive expanding company to invest in (hence my earlier showing). The potential is huge. However it is based a long way away and I want to be kept regularly informed of the financials if I am to stake some hard earned cash here.
Frankly I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. If you want multibaggers, they are there a plenty at the moment and if you do your homework here you will quite quickly agree with me.

[imabastard] 17/3/2009 21:08

Interesting development ....

"The enlarged operation will have a database of over 1 million customers and marketing alliances with a number of key Chinese banks and internet portals. Furthermore the operation centre will be based in Guangzhou, which will result in significant cost reduction for both companies."

Only £12.5 million market cap .... over 1 million customers.

"While much has been written about the slowdown in the Chinese economy, we are seeing buoyant levels of activity. In Southern China, we are experiencing more
people travelling and an increase in their levels of spending which is a clear
sign that they feel confident about the economy going forward."

[longshanks] 09/2/2009 09:17

Trading statement. Doing its best to sound bullish without actually giving any declaration that the company is operating profitably.

Am inclined to believe this is an effort to shore up the share price prior to a capital raising.

The price is beginning to look very cheap - but if they are going to dilute the capital substantially it might be worth waiting a bit longer.

[greek islander] 07/2/2009 07:31

I see nothing here for months.
Shame.


I have just returned from China at New Year and my heavens if travel companies cannot make a mint from all the movement that goes on internally then they should pack up and go home. Credit Squeeze or no credit squeeze.

[hillyfields] 11/11/2008 10:11

Perhaps there is a terminilogical inexactitude in the statement,Guandong has contracted over the last 3 months,if this continues it will be in recession by christmas.

[explorer88] 11/11/2008 09:08

This explains this morning's share price fall...

"Et-china, a leading travel services group in the fast growing region of South China, announces the following trading update. The Group is being affected by the reduced level of economic growth in China and the current cautious approach by the Chinese to leisure and business travel spending as well as considerable price cutting in the travel industry. As a result, the Company is not expecting to meet market expectations but the Board is optimistic that current conditions will prove to be short lived and the market will recover soon."

I'm surprised to see that this hasn't appeared as an RNS yet ...

(edit: just appeared as RNS now)

[greek islander] 24/9/2008 09:20

UK-Analyst today
External adverse factors, including adverse weather conditions, earthquakes and political protests, caused interim profits to be below expectations at South China-focused travel operator Et-China (ETC), sending the shares reeling by 23.5p to 78p. However, the company still managed underlying revenue growth of 21%. Revenue for the six months to end-June rose to 56.7 million pounds from 17.7 million pounds, reflecting the impact from acquisitions, including a two-month contribution from the tour operating business, GZL. Pre-tax losses widened to 1.5 million pounds from 1.4 million pounds. Within GZL the strongest growth came from Outbound Tours, where revenue grew by 33.4%, as the company rode the wave of popularity among Chinese nationals for overseas travel. The e-business division saw revenues rise 41%. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period had risen to 17.1 million pounds from 9.3 million pounds a year earlier, while net cash stood at £7.5 million. Chairman Ian Smith believes the company is well placed to benefit from the continued growth of the Chinese travel market in its chosen role as an industry consolidator. "Whilst the first half has been disappointing, we feel that Et-china will be a leader in the consolidation exercise taking place in Southern China," commented Seymour Pierce, which has a 'buy' stance and a 155p price target for the shares. "With its strong balance sheet, GZL a strong partner and the infrastructure in place, Et-china's long-term prospects look extremely positive," it added.