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ESUR Esure

279.60
0.00 (0.00%)
18 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Esure LSE:ESUR London Ordinary Share GB00B8KJH563 ORD 1/12P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 279.60 279.40 279.80 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Esure Share Discussion Threads

Showing 501 to 525 of 1000 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  28  27  26  25  24  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
07/11/2014
12:18
Off topic, I was with esure car insurance for years, however was forced to leave because I could get the same cover from Halifax for half price, anyone else noticed they have put the prices right up?
wipo1
07/11/2014
12:00
Mas - Thanks for your reply. Much appreciated.
speedsgh
07/11/2014
11:49
I hope your more optimistic forecast is better than mine. I also hold AV which has performed strongly even with a dividend cut. I sold out of RSA at a loss a year or so ago, and have some commercial property co's in my largely income focused holdings.

Hopefully this year I will get 8-9k tax free. Its not enough to live on, but it allows me to work a 4day week.

dr biotech
07/11/2014
11:36
speedsgh - 499: Mas - FY2013 div was 15.80p giving a historical yield of 7.4% based on the current 213.7p offer price. Even if we ignore the special 1.50p div paid alongside the interim div in Oct, the 3.60p interim payment represented a 44% increase on the FY2013 interim (2.50p). Would one not expect an increase in the current full year div compared to FY2013? Digital Look are currently forecasting 17.80p which gives an 8.4% forward yield (don't know whether their 17.80p includes specials). Would be interested to know what you are basing your forecasts on? Agree with you that it is largely sentiment against the sector that is driving the share price action at present + that ESUR are good value at this price. Of course that is not to say that they may not be even better value in the weeks ahead! O/T - Do you follow LRE? Would appreciate your thoughts if you have any. TIA

speedsgh - I'm assuming that the final dividend will be possibly increased by a lower percentage due to the slippage in Q3 and might be upped perhaps by 10% to say 14.9p which would provide a FY dividend of 20p including the additional 1.5p at the interim stage. Worse case scenario is that they hold it at 13.6p which would result in 18.7p for the year which would still be an 18% increase on last year.

I think that the insurance cycle, which has been in decline for the past two and a half years is bottoming out and I think that their reference to stabilising and increasing premiums in the recent statement is a further indicator of this. At a PER of around 9.6 for the current year - and possibly even lower for next year if premiums harden further - a yield of between 8.7% and 9.3%, no debt, a strong balance sheet and quality management, this is currently undervalued. The shareprice this morning touched the November ATL since last years listing and unless there is a further and unexpected deterioration in Q4 I would expect to see the shareprice start to recover. I used to hold both Aviva and L & G but at the moment ESUR is my only insurance stock, which I hold in a separate ISA portfolio that is concentrated on income yield. I occasionally look at LRE as it is on my watchlist and may climb aboard when there are some further indications that the sector cycle has finally turned.

masurenguy
07/11/2014
11:31
I think profits will be down somewhat. Last year the COR was 89% and this year it looks like it will be 91. Thats actually a near 20% difference in underwriting profit (on £1bn you would make 90m, compared to 110m). ASR is flat - looking at last years figures I'd suggest total profits this year are going to be 10-15% less than last year.
They aim to pay out 70% - assuming that they don't want to overstretch themselves (and I believe the company has to be run in the long term) then the FY dividend will be about 10p. They absolutely have to ensure a strong capital position.

Have to hope that things pick up from the last few months. These are my second largest holding, about 6% so its not been a great week for me.

dr biotech
07/11/2014
10:44
Dr B - What are you forecasting re dividend for current FY?
speedsgh
07/11/2014
10:39
Well thats a new all-time low. Tempted to buy in the hope to scalp 5% in the short term.
bikeaholic
07/11/2014
10:38
Last years interims are not really comparable as they were over a different time period. They were a shorter timespan as the company floated midway during the term.
dr biotech
07/11/2014
10:18
Mas - FY2013 div was 15.80p giving a historical yield of 7.4% based on the current 213.7p offer price. Even if we ignore the special 1.50p div paid alongside the interim div in Oct, the 3.60p interim payment represented a 44% increase on the FY2013 interim (2.50p). Would one not expect an increase in the current full year div compared to FY2013? Digital Look are currently forecasting 17.80p which gives an 8.4% forward yield (don't know whether their 17.80p includes specials). Would be interested to know what you are basing your forecasts on?

Agree with you that it is largely sentiment against the sector that is driving the share price action at present + that ESUR are good value at this price. Of course that is not to say that they may not be even better value in the weeks ahead!

O/T - Do you follow LRE? Would appreciate your thoughts if you have any. TIA

speedsgh
07/11/2014
10:02
Dr yes I do agree ref aviva, new cel def helped but insurance is a very cyclical market
gutterhead
07/11/2014
09:29
Aviva was a bit of a basket case though. Under their last CEO they were directionless, paying out an over generous dividend and constantly being restructured. The main reason they recovered is a change in CEO to someone good.

I think Esure is well run and are doing the right things, their issue is more to do with a fiercely competitive market.

dr biotech
07/11/2014
08:12
Bought 214p
gutterhead
06/11/2014
18:29
Masurenguy
Quite agree, with a bit of patience, this is a bargain. Insurance company performance is cyclical. Look at Aviva for example.
It's a great company being hammered by market sentiment.
Solid £1bn company, profitable, good balance sheet and best management in the industry. I'm buying more.

gutterhead
06/11/2014
15:45
Todays further fall is on very small trading volumes. It is largely sentiment that is driving this rather than fundamentals. At this price the PER has now slipped into single digits and the yield has risen above 7% Good value at this price IMO.
masurenguy
06/11/2014
14:20
Looks like we are heading into uncharted territory on the low side :-(

Long term its a well run company, but there may be more short term pain ahead.

dr biotech
05/11/2014
14:59
It seems that esure have started to at least try to increase their prices. It will be interesting to see what the finals are like - but if the COR is rising and the level of premiums is falling then presumably its not going to be good news.

Have to hope for some of the others to follow suit.

dr biotech
05/11/2014
14:08
Somebody in the know knew hence the fall/weakness from 270p down to 220p earlier....
diku
05/11/2014
10:11
I think over a few years this will do OK. The deterioration in the last quarter is a bit of a concern though. Its does show that the IPO forecasts were on the optimistic side - private equity BS.
dr biotech
05/11/2014
10:08
The dividend is of little use whilst the capital is being eroded.

Pessimistic?
Yes I am!

bikeaholic
05/11/2014
09:38
I agree - a little patience is required and enjoy the dividend.
dennisten
05/11/2014
09:37
What a dog of a share. The company may be well run but growth will be difficult to achieve. I was sucked in by the share offer and am glad that I only got a fraction of what I applied for.
bikeaholic
05/11/2014
09:32
Still think this company are well run and will do well med/long term.

They are taking on quality business, underwriting discipline will come through into the results.

Meantime the dividend is very nice

gutterhead
05/11/2014
08:29
Not a great update, premiums falling and claims are rising. Could be a while before he market turns.
dr biotech
05/11/2014
07:41
Some further slippage in written premium income during Q3 with YTD now down by £17m while ASR is up slightly by £2m.

RNS Number : 1512W
05 November 2014
esure Group plc

Interim Management Statement for the nine months to 30 September 2014

Remaining disciplined in tough market conditions

Financial summary

-- Total in-force policies increased 2.5% year-on-year and 1.1% year-to-date to 1.954m as at 30 September 2014 (Q2 2014: 1.974m, FY 2013: 1.933m, Q3 2013: 1.906m)

-- Motor in-force policies are broadly flat year-to-date at 1.394m (Q2 2014: 1.421m, FY 2013: 1.385m), with Home in-force policies up 2.4% to 0.561m (Q2 2014: 0.553m, FY 2013: 0.548m)

-- Gross written premiums year-to-date down 4.0% to GBP410.0m (YTD Q3 2013: GBP427.0m), Motor and Home down 4.5% and 1.3% respectively

-- Gross written premiums for Q3 down 7.4% to GBP149.6m (Q3 2013: GBP161.6m), Motor down 8.8%, with Home broadly flat

-- Additional Services Revenues(1) ("ASR") year-to-date broadly flat at GBP79.0m (YTD Q3 2013: GBP79.3m)

ASR excluding Claims Income up 2.8% to GBP74.7m (YTD Q3 2013: GBP72.7m)

-- The financial position remains strong, with the Group remaining well capitalised and on track for the implementation of Solvency II

Stuart Vann, Chief Executive Officer of esure Group plc, commented: "We have seen some signs of rate stabilisation in the UK motor market but it is too early to say if this represents a turn in the motor rating cycle or is a consequence of rating seasonality. We have remained disciplined in our approach, while continuing to position the business for future growth. The reduction in our gross written premiums is consistent with our guidance, as we continue to focus on underwriting discipline against a backdrop of a competitive rating environment in both Motor and Home. Over recent months, we have implemented a number of targeted rate increases in Motor, which have resulted in a small reduction in the Group's in-force policies in Q3 compared to Q2. With regard to claims, we have previously said it was too early to assess the impact of the LASPO Reforms(2) . Recent data from the Ministry of Justice Claims Portal(3) suggests that claims inflation is starting to re-emerge, driven by an increase in small bodily injury claims frequency. The Group continues to set claims reserves on a prudent basis and, therefore, now expects the combined operating ratio for the full year to tick up towards 92%, assuming normal weather for the remainder of the year."

Business Update

Motor in-force policies are broadly flat in the year as the Group continued to focus on underwriting discipline. This resulted in a reduction in Motor gross written premiums of 4.5% to GBP343.9m. Risk selection remains a key focus of the Group and it continues to evolve its platform. The Group has launched a number of initiatives during the year as it looks to increase its quote footprint over the medium to long term.

During Q3, the market has seen an increase in small bodily injury claims as evidenced in the Ministry of Justice Claims Portal(3) data; with the number of claim notification forms created and sent to a compensator in August and September up 15% and 20% respectively, compared to the equivalent months in 2013. The Group will monitor these developments carefully to see if they turn into longer term trends.

The home rating environment remains competitive and this impacted the Group's ability to grow gross written premiums in Home during the first nine months of the year, despite modest growth in in-force policies. Customers are at the heart of the business and during Q3 the Group launched an alternative business structure, in partnership with one of the UK's leading law firms, Irwin Mitchell, enhancing the customer experience for those unfortunate enough to be involved in an accident.

masurenguy
04/11/2014
14:42
Should hopefully be no surprises. We haven't had a weather event in the last 6 months. Perhaps there will be signs of premiums increasing. I would imagine that a few of the weaker players will have to.
dr biotech
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