Essenden Share Discussion Threads

[paxman] 19/3/2014 08:46

More back of envelope calculations:

Eps of 16.7p so EPS of 7.2p after loan note conversion.

This year's interest saving after loan note conversion roughly equal to the positive impairment figure of last year. So no change there.

Current year to date profits growth running at £300,000 times 13.5 so profit up £4 m if this stronger trading continues.

If it does, profits will roughly double this year. So EPS at 14.4p on expanded equity. Probably more tax to pay, so call it current year EPS of 12p.

P/E for a company with this operational gearing, net cash, and increasing profits at 100%, say 12 to 15 so share price of 145 p to 180p by the interims?

Also, a transformational acquisition in the works.

[glennborthwick] 19/3/2014 08:26

thats my only worry here. They are probably in safe hands but they were only trading at a quarter of par value and are now worth several times that

[shanklin] 19/3/2014 08:24

Once the loan notes are replaced by ordinary shares, how will this impact future results?

[chrisis33] 19/3/2014 08:19

Well done holders ... I'm out of the majority of my shares now (rightly or wrongly). With a handful minor holdings in a handful of companies. Missed the push on from 70p here - but well done to the long termers!

[glennborthwick] 19/3/2014 07:17

Great results. Also check out Rtc results.

[battlebus2] 19/3/2014 07:06

Worth highlighting again...


We have also been working to deliver a "transformational step" for the Group, and remain positive that 2014 will be a defining moment in the Company's future.

[battlebus2] 19/3/2014 07:05

Impressive results...

3 year strategy has delivered progress on all measures:

· Positive like for like sales growth of 0.6%; strong Q4 up 8.3%

· EBITDA increased by 8.4% to £4.1m (2012: £3.8m)

· Profit before tax strengthened significantly; up £3.7m to £3.6m (2012: Loss of -£0.1m)

· Net Cash of £2.1m at year end (2012: Net Debt £0.7m), excluding Loan Notes; significantly cash positive in year

· Further streamlining of estate; completed non-core asset disposals

· Online bookings up 62%; represents 25% of total bowling revenue

· Colleague satisfaction increase to 80% (2012: 72%)

· Positive earnings per share of 16.7p (2012: -4.0p (loss))

· Positive like for like sales in 11 weeks to 16th March 2014 of 13.5%

Nick Basing, Chief Executive, said:
"The Company is fitter and stronger than ever and has delivered a second year of profitable progress; all measures have improved.

I am pleased trading since the year end has again strengthened considerably with a run rate of 13.5%. At the margin a 1% change in like for like sales converts to EBITDA of around £300,000.

We have also been working to deliver a "transformational step" for the Group, and remain positive that 2014 will be a defining moment in the Company's future."

[loafingchard] 18/3/2014 16:01

Agree BB2 , better to get the notes out of the way . T.U. looks promising too , roll on results....

[glennborthwick] 18/3/2014 13:32

Market likes.

[paxman] 18/3/2014 09:01

Back of envelope calculations:

50 m shares after loan conversion.
Last year profit of 2 times 1st half £1.977 m = £3.954 m.
No debt so no interest charge.
Tax around 20% like last year so post tax of £3.16 m.

That's about 6.3 p earnings per share.

Going forward, business significantly better according to RNS. Should be good operational gearing so maybe 8 p earnings per share for this year if business remains strong.

Maybe should be on a P/E of 10 to 12. So 80 p to around a £1 is a reasonable target after the results later this week.

We'll find out in a few days.

[glennborthwick] 18/3/2014 08:09

yep looks like they got the balance right
will be looking to pick up more if it drops on some profit taking

[battlebus2] 18/3/2014 08:03

Market reaction so far is positive with a tick up..

Will take a look Glennborthwick thanks.

[glennborthwick] 18/3/2014 07:47

by the way. A tiddler called RTC is announcing results tomorrow. Worth watching what the come up with as last trading update suggests they could be great.

[glennborthwick] 18/3/2014 07:46

very generous conversion sweetened though by trading update - lets see what the market makes of it

[battlebus2] 18/3/2014 07:28

Pleased to see them dealing with the loan notes and the uncertainty that surrounds them.

[drsmessguide] 18/3/2014 07:22

Yes, with 50m shares in issue after this move the eps I expected falls to 4.2p, moving it to a PE of nearer 15. It should have cash though, perhaps £5m (before directors get their £2m payout!!) and be generating a lot of cash now which should allow a decent divi if they don't blow it all on a 'transformational deal'. I suspect though the team will find an opportunity that is value enhancing given their track record.

[battlebus2] 18/3/2014 07:13

Loan notes to be converted into shares and trading has strenghtened.

[battlebus2] 20/2/2014 07:44

Sounds good chrisis33, good luck with whatever your doing.

[chrisis33] 20/2/2014 07:18

Hi Battlebus. CSSG is another that I let go for a small but tidy profit. I've a busy and exciting year on the personal front, so making sure I'm not over-committed. About 75% invested and 25% in cash at present.

[battlebus2] 19/2/2014 23:29

Do you still hold CSSG?

[chrisis33] 19/2/2014 23:09

Yes it has Battlebus2... CSSG, ESS, STY and which other?

[battlebus2] 19/2/2014 19:50

Welcome loafing chard. Where's gargoyle up another 12% today.
It's been a great day all round chrisis33 not often I get four shares with 10% plus gains in a day. :))

[loafingchard] 19/2/2014 11:13

Joined you guys today with an initial stake , you can blame me if it now reverses ;) . GLA

[chrisis33] 19/2/2014 08:20

Yes Battlebus - good to see ... long term hold in the bottom drawer

[battlebus2] 19/2/2014 08:08

I make that tick up puts us into new highs :)) and blue sky to 70p..