Energiser Investments Share Discussion Threads

[adrian j boris] 26/9/2020 06:54

Spot natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub are also at multi-month highs at over $3/MMBtu, compared to a low of below $1/MMBtu in May, opening the window for profitable U.S. LNG exports to the region again.

Having plunged by more than 50 percent between January and July, U.S. LNG exports are set to pick up the pace, and the increase already started in August.

As per EIA estimates, U.S. LNG exports averaged 3.7 Bcf/d in August, up by 19 percent from July amid rising spot and forward natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.

“Higher global forward prices indicate improving netbacks for buyers of U.S. LNG in European and Asian markets for the upcoming fall and winter seasons amid expectations of natural gas demand recovery and potential LNG supply reduction because of maintenance at the Gorgon LNG plant in Australia,” the EIA said, expecting U.S. LNG exports to return to pre-COVID levels by November 2020 and to average more than 9 Bcf/d from December 2020 through February 2021.

The EIA expects that lower U.S. gas production, coupled with rising domestic demand and demand for LNG exports in the winter, will send Henry Hub spot prices jumping to a monthly average of $3.40/MMBtu in January 2021. Monthly average spot prices are set to remain above $3.00/MMBtu for all of next year, averaging $3.19/MMBtu in 2021, up from a forecast average of $2.16/MMBtu in 2020.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[waldron] 25/9/2020 16:46

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 42.24 -0.52%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.18 +0.58%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.82 -1.40%
WTI 40.076 USD -0.45%


FTSE 100
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Dow Jones
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CAC 40
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Euro STOXX 50
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DAX
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Total
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Orange
8.89 -1.44%



Bp
233.3 +0.39%

Vodafone
103.8 -0.04%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,004.8 -0.91%


Royal Dutch Shell B
972.1 -0.61%


Tullow Oil (TLW)
: 15.46 -0.195 (-1.25%)

[sarkasm] 25/9/2020 11:10

Veolia Environnement SA is set to present an "improved offer" late Friday for Suez SA to Engie SA's board of directors, Chief Executive Antoine Frerot said in a press conference Friday.

"The offer price will be increased, but I won't say by how much," Mr. Frerot said, adding that price is not the sole criteria.

The improved offer takes into account the points raised by Engie, Mr. Frerot added. "The social commitments have been formally set out in a letter that will be sent to Engie's board of directors," he said.

Mr. Frerot said he is open regarding the question of governance, noting that of the 12 members of the new entity's executive committee, four or five could come from within Suez. "The same would apply for directors at country level," he added.



Alice Dore contributed to this article.



Write to Olivier Pinaud at [e-mail]



This story was translated in whole or in part from a French-language version initially published by L'Agefi-Dow Jones.



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 25, 2020 06:10 ET (10:10 GMT)

[waldron] 23/9/2020 18:35

Oil Prices Rise After EIA Reports Crude Inventory Draw
By Irina Slav - Sep 23, 2020, 9:41 AM CDT
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Crude oil prices reversed their decline today after the Energy Information Administration reported an oil inventory draw of 1.6 million barrels for the week to September 18. This compares with a draw of 4.4 million barrels for the previous week.

The report came a day after the American Petroleum Institute propped prices up temporarily by estimating a sizeable decline in gasoline stocks, coupled with a modest build in crude oil stocks. Analysts, on the other hand, had expected the EIA this week to report an inventory draw of 2.325 million barrels.

In gasoline, the EIA estimated an inventory draw of 4 million barrels for the week to September 18, compared with a decline of 400,000 barrels for the previous week. This also helped prices up.

Gasoline production averaged 9.3 million bpd last week, up on a week earlier, when gasoline output averaged just 8.8 million bpd.

In distillate fuels, which are giving refiners a headache as demand for them remains a lot more subdued than demand for gasoline, the EIA reported a draw in stocks of 3.4 million barrels. This compares to a build of 3.5 million barrels estimated for the previous week amid still severely limited air travel.

Distillate fuel production last week averaged 4.5 million bpd, compared with 4.4 million bpd a week earlier.

Oil prices were still down at the time of writing, with Brent crude trading at $41.69 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate trading at $39.70 a barrel. The decline is hardly a surprise: it came amid deepening worry about the future state of oil demand as economic reports from different parts of the world suggested that any recovery would be slow. It also came soon after the news broke that Libya was reopening some of its oil export terminals and boosting production.

OilX reported that plans were to raise production to 260,000 bpd, from currently below 100,000 bpd. In a precarious price environment, this production boost was bound to pressure prices despite OPEC+’s stated success with production cuts.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[waldron] 23/9/2020 16:18

Big shipping insurers stop covering ships linked to Nord Stream 2
Sep. 23, 2020 11:43 AM ET|About: Public Joint Stock Company ... (OGZPY)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The world's largest group of shipping insurers will not insure vessels involved in the Gazprom-led (OTCPK:OGZPY) Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream gas pipeline projects because of the threat of U.S. sanctions.

Associations belonging to the International Group of P&I Clubs, including the Shipowners Club and the London P&I Club, say they will not provide cover "for any activity involving or related to the Nord Stream 2 or TurkStream construction projects."

Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 partners are Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Germany's Uniper (OTC:UNPPY) and BASF (OTCQX:BASFY), Austria's OMV (OTCPK:OMVJF) and France's Engie (OTCPK:ENGIY).

German Chancellor Merkel is being pressured by calls to halt Nord Stream 2 in response to the suspected poisoning of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny in Siberia last month.

[grupo] 23/9/2020 07:49

Business
Why is Engie CEO Jean-Pierre Clamadieu in a hurry to sell off Suez?

Published 4 mins ago

on September 23, 2020

By Business Correspondent

In the battle to ward off a hostile takeover from long-term rival Veolia, Suez is raising the stakes. The French waste and water management company announced that its strategy to improve the firm’s financial performance was paying off sooner than expected. As a consequence, Suez shareholders can look forward to €1.2 billion in exceptional dividends by early 2021.

The strategy was implemented last year, but the timing of the announcement is hardly a coincidence, coming mere days after Engie – which holds a 30 percent stake in Suez – rejected Veolia’s offer to buy out the stake at €15.50 per share, or a total of €2.9 billion on September17th. Engie’s CEO Jean-Pierre Clamadieu made it abundantly clear that Veolia’s bid was too low and called on the utilities provider to raise its offer, insisting that the “value of Suez is higher than the basis of these discussions.”

The rejection itself may not be the biggest news, however. More interesting is what can be read between the lines, specifically Clamadieu’s evident urgency that Veolia offer a new bid as soon as possible while calling on Suez to respond with a counter-offer – fast. The Engie CEO repeatedly stressed that any alternative bid would be considered carefully, assuming it could be “implemented rapidly”, and even offered an extension to Veolia for a new offer if need be.

If Engie’s signalling to both bidders that the clock is ticking was unequivocal, then that’s only because time is running out for Clamadieu as well. By rejecting Veolia’s bid and calling on Suez, it’s become evident that the Engie leadership is hoping to force a deal rather sooner than later. Indeed, after years of loss-making and continually falling operating profits, the Covid-19 pandemic left the company cash-strapped and is most likely the main driver behind Clamadieu’s decision to divest from some of Engie’s subsidiaries to reap the benefit of short-term financial windfalls.

Herein lies the rub – to get Engie’s finances back in order, Clamadieu seems willing to make a risky bet that’s resting on the assumption that a quick bidding war is the best way to maximize returns. But maximizing returns takes time as both contenders need to be given ample opportunity to escalate their bids. The emphasis on urgency is putting the pressure on Suez to react within a short period of time – Veolia’s offer expires September 30th – leaving the firm mere days to raise funds for a credible counter-offer. With the clock ticking fast, Clamadieu’s gamble may well backfire and force him to sign off on a deal that remains behind Engie’s expectations – but one that would most definitely make Veolia happy.

As such, the gambit raises broader questions about Jean-Pierre Clamadieu’s strategy, as well as his leadership. It’s important to note that Clamadieu was hailed as a fine and discreet business strategist when he became Engie CEO this February following a boardroom coup that saw the luckless former CEO Isabelle Kocher getting the sack. But in revealing the risky short-terminism in his thinking, Clamadieu isn’t doing himself any favours, particularly where his other leading business positions are concerned.

Take his role in French insurance company Axa, where he has held the Senior Independent Director position since April 2019. The insurance giant is facing down its own share of Covid-induced troubles after a Paris court ruled that the firm must cover a restaurant owner’s coronavirus-related revenue losses. The ruling set a ground-breaking precedent for businesses in the gastronomy sector, with the insurer now in talks with more than 600 establishments over financial settlements.

With Axa potentially in for millions of extra payments, a long-term strategy to keep the company profitable is required. In his role as Independent Director and member of the Compensation and Governance Committee, Clamadieu is holding significant responsibility in determining the company’s direction, but considering the gamble with Suez, Axa’s leadership would be justified in asking questions about his suitability to serve in a leading role in insurance – an industry that by definition deals in long-term assessments.

These trying times call for a steady hand and a thorough long-term strategy. Whether Clamadieu’s gamble will pay off remains to be seen, but if history is a lesson to be learned, the desire for short-term windfalls always loses out to long-term thinking.

[ariane] 22/9/2020 10:12

Suez Accelerates Strategic Plan, Promises Higher Shareholder Returns Amid Takeover Interest -- Update

22/09/2020 10:31am

Dow Jones News

Suez (EU:SEV)



Tuesday 22 September 2020


--Suez is accelerating its 2030 strategic plan, citing good results, and it detailed financial targets for 2021, 2022

--Shareholder returns could reach at least EUR2 billion by the end of 2022

--Suez rejected a 'hostile' approach from Veolia earlier this month



By Olivia Bugault



Suez SA said Tuesday that it is accelerating its "SUEZ 2030" strategic plan after good results and it promised an exceptional dividend or share buyback of at least 1.0 billion euros ($1.17 billion) as it defends itself from takeover interest.

"The implementation of Suez' strategy announced in 2019, is delivering tangible results already this year on several workstreams, allowing the group to bring the overall timeline forward," Suez said.

The French waste-management company said it would pay the dividend or share buyback "as soon as possible" and by no later than the first half of 2021. Including an ordinary dividend of EUR0.65 per share to be paid in 2021 and of EUR0.70 per share for the following year, shareholder returns could reach at least EUR2 billion by the end of 2022, Suez said. The plan intends to double shareholder value by 2022, it added.

Suez rebuffed hostile interest from Veolia Environnement SA earlier this month, saying that it undervalued the company and raised concerns about the risk of job cuts. Suez's rejection followed Veolia's offer to acquire a 29.9% stake in its peer Suez from energy company Engie SA for EUR2.91 billion.

"The board supports the management in the reinforcement of the plan, which will significantly increase the value creation potential of an independent Suez group, for the benefit of all stakeholders," Philippe Varin, president of the board of directors, said.

Suez raised the saving objective part of the plan and now aims for EUR1.2 billion in annual savings by 2023, including EUR900 million that would be achieved by 2022, compared with a previous annual savings objective of EUR1 billion by 2023, it said.

Suez also provided more details on its financial goals for the years to come. Suez targets recurring earnings per share in 2021 of between EUR0.75 and EUR0.80 and up to EUR1 in 2022. It sees revenue above EUR16 billion for 2021 and above EUR17 billion for 2022. It targets earnings before interest and taxes between EUR1.35 billion and EUR1.5 billion for next year and of roughly EUR1.7 billion in 2022, it said.

Meanwhile, the company backed its guidance for this year.

The company expects organic growth, profitability, recurring free cash flow and return on capital to improve by 2022, it said. Organic growth is expected to be above 4%-5% per year from 2022, while its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin should expand by 100 basis points to 300 basis points, it said.

Suez is redeploying its capital and therefore plans at least EUR4.5 billion of growth investment from June 2020 to December 2022, including EUR3 billion of continued targeted capital expenditure to boost its organic growth, it said.



Write to Olivia Bugault at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 22, 2020 05:16 ET (09:16 GMT)

[grupo guitarlumber] 20/9/2020 10:45

strong support 11.135 euros

strong resistence 12.175 euros

current share price 11.595 euros

[waldron] 18/9/2020 16:46

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 43.25 -0.12%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.20 -0.27%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.61 +2.28%
WT I41.1 USD +0.58%

FTSE 100
6,007.05 -0.71%
Dow Jones
27,888.44 -0.05%
CAC 40
4,978.18 -1.22%
SBF 120
3,939.83 -1.21%
Euro STOXX 50
3,283.69 -1.12%
DAX
13,116.25 -0.70%
Ftse Mib
19,572.17 -0.85%



Eni
7.388 -2.71%


Total
31.11 -1.35%


Engie
11.595 -1.86%

Orange
9.516 -1.49%


Bp
245.75 -2.54%

Vodafone
107.66 +0.30%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,034.6 -1.69%


Royal Dutch Shell B
990.2 -2.10%


Tullow Oil (TLW)
16.92: -1.505 (-8.17%)

[waldron] 16/9/2020 17:26

EU president adds pressure on Merkel with Nord Stream criticism
Sep. 16, 2020 12:12 PM ET|About: Public Joint Stock Company ... (OGZPY)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The president of the European Union Commission directly calls into question the Gazprom-led (OTCPK:OGZPY) Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, adding to pressure on German Chancellor Merkel and potentially complicating the future of the project.

"To those that advocate closer ties with Russia, I say that the poisoning of Alexey Navalny with an advanced chemical agent is not a one off," Ursala von der Leyen said in her state of the union address. "This pattern is not changing, and no pipeline will change that."

The Kremlin says Nord Stream should not be linked to the case of Navalny, saying it has seen no proof that the opposition leader was poisoned in Russia with a nerve agent.

In a sign that Russia is determined to press on with the project, a Gazprom vessel reportedly has departed St. Petersburg for Mukran, the pipeline's supply base in Germany.

Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 partners are Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Germany's Uniper (OTC:UNPPY) and BASF (OTCQX:BASFY), Austria's OMV (OTCPK:OMVJF) and France's Engie (OTCPK:ENGIY).

[sarkasm] 16/9/2020 12:05

Engie Brasil to hold 2 auctions in Oct to contract renewable power
Brazilian solar park

September 16 (Renewables Now) - Brazilian utility Engie Brasil Energia SA (BMVF:EGIE3) plans to hold two energy auctions this year to contract renewable energy such as wind and solar power.

The dates for the auctions are October 13 and October 15. The Brazilian unit of France’s Engie SA (EPA:ENGI) did not disclose the specific amount of energy it seeks but stated that the new capacity will be used to meet demand in the Southeast and Midwest markets.

In the first auction, the company will award a 15-year power purchase agreement (PPA) starting from 2023. This tender is intended for companies with projects under development, construction or operation.

To participate in the second auction, which will contract power for five years beginning in 2022, companies have to be registered with the Brazilian Electric Power Commercialization Chamber (CCEE) as traders, generators, independent and self energy producers.

All the details can be found on the auctions website (

[sarkasm] 14/9/2020 14:08

BP Says Oil Demand Growth Era Over
by Bloomberg
|
Rakteem Katakey
|
Monday, September 14, 2020

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BP Says Oil Demand Growth Era Over
BP says the relentless growth of oil demand is over.

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more.

Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in a report on Monday. Even its most bullish scenario sees demand no better than “broadly flat” for the next two decades as the energy transition shifts the world away from fossil fuels.

BP is making a profound break from orthodoxy. From the bosses of corporate energy giants to ministers from OPEC states, senior figures from the industry have insisted that oil consumption will see decades of growth. Time and again, they have described it as the only commodity that can satisfy the demands of an increasing global population and expanding middle class.

The U.K. giant is describing a different future, where oil’s supremacy is challenged, and ultimately fades. That explains why BP has taken the boldest steps so far among peers to align its business with the goals of the Paris climate accord. Just six months after taking the top job, Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in August he’d shrink oil and gas output by 40% over the next decade and spend as much as $5 billion a year building one of the world’s largest renewable-power businesses.

That’s because he suspects oil use may already have peaked as a result of the pandemic, stricter government policies and changes in consumer behavior. BP’s energy outlook shows consumption slumping 50% by 2050 in one scenario, and by almost 80% in another. In a “business-as-usual” situation, demand would recover but then flatline near 100 million barrels a day for the next 20 years.

BP isn’t the only big oil company adapting its business to the energy transition. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SE and others in Europe have announced similar pivots toward cleaner operations as customers, governments and investors increasingly call for change.
Three Possible Futures

BP’s report comes ahead of three days of online briefings starting Monday on its clean-energy and climate strategy. The study considers three scenarios, which aren’t predictions but nevertheless cover a wide range of possible outcomes over the next 30 years and form the basis of the new strategy Looney announced in August.

The “Rapid” approach sees new policy measures leading to a significant increase in carbon prices. The “Net Zero” course reinforces Rapid with big shifts in societal behavior, while the “Business-as-usual” projection assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve as they have in the recent past.

In the first two scenarios, oil demand falls as a result of the coronavirus, the report shows. “It subsequently recovers but never back to pre-Covid levels,” according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist. “It brings forward the point at which oil demand peaks to 2019.”

That contrasts with what many others are forecasting. Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of trading giant Vitol Group, said on Monday that oil demand is poised for 10 years of growth before a steady decline. He predicts consumption will return to pre-virus levels by the end of next year.

BP’s outlook last year contained a scenario called “More energy,” which had oil demand growing steadily to about 130 million barrels a day in 2040. There’s no such scenario this time.

“Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” BP said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.̶1;
Covid Impact

The pandemic shattered oil consumption this year as countries locked down to prevent infections from spreading. While demand has since improved, and crude prices with it, the public health crisis is still raging in many parts of the world and the outlook remains uncertain in the absence of a vaccine.

The impact, including lasting behavioral changes like increased working from home, will affect economic activity and prosperity in the developing world, and ultimately demand for liquid fuels, according to BP. That means it won’t be able to offset already falling consumption in developed countries.

Demand for liquid fuels is seen falling to less than 55 million barrels a day by 2050 in BP’s Rapid scenario, and to around 30 million a day in Net Zero. The drop is mostly in developed economies and in China. In India, other parts of Asia and Africa, demand remains broadly flat in the first scenario but slips below 2018 levels from the mid-2030s in the second.

Other points in the energy outlook:

The Rapid scenario has carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050, while they drop by more than 95% in Net Zero. Business-as-usual sees them peaking in the mid-2020s.
Demand for all primary energy -- the raw materials from which energy is derived -- increases by about 10% in Rapid and Net Zero in the period, and by around 25% in the third scenario.
In Rapid, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy from the early 2040s.
Growth in China’s energy demand slows sharply relative to past trends, reaching a peak in the early 2030s in all three scenarios.
Renewable energy -- excluding hydro -- increases more than 10-fold in both Rapid and Net Zero, with its share in primary energy rising from 5% in 2018 to more than 40% by 2050 in Rapid and almost 60% in Net Zero.
Natural gas consumption is seen broadly unchanged to 2050 in Rapid and around 35% higher in business-as-usual. Demand falls by about 40% by 2050 in Net Zero.

[the grumpy old men] 14/9/2020 12:47

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, trims 2021 outlook on pandemic fallout
Published Mon, Sep 14 20207:40 AM EDT
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19

Key Points

OPEC has downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020.

The report comes as energy market participants become increasingly concerned about a faltering economic recovery and stumbling fuel demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Looking ahead, OPEC said the negative impact on oil demand in Asia was expected to persist through the first six months of 2021.

[waldron] 14/9/2020 08:09

Germany won’t abandon its massive gas pipeline with Russia yet, analysts say

Published Mon, Sep 14 20202:22 AM EDT

Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt

Key Points

Germany has come under increasing pressure to pull the plug on its controversial giant gas pipeline project with Russia.

Experts say Berlin is unlikely to do so for now, however, given the fact the project is almost complete.

German and other major European companies are involved in constructing the pipeline.