Enegi Oil Share Discussion Threads

[taxibabe] 17/4/2015 09:14

Its all a question of how one values ABTOG and NEWFOUNDLAND. I price the value of the IRISH SHALE OIL at zero. ABTOG, in theory, could be worth nothing or something. No-one knows. Newfoundland could be seized by BS or, if a rights issue were possible, and it was drilled, be worth 10s of millions - who knows. I agree its best to reserve judgement unless one is already in in which case some may take the current values as a way of averaging down; generally not a great idea. Its wildly speculative and not for widows or orphans. Those buying now could make 10 or 20 times their money or maybe even more. or wake up to suspension and a valueless play. I have the feeling its not in the hands of Mr Minty or the board anymore but SHARD and BLACK SPRUCE.

[taxibabe] 15/4/2015 12:34

I am further not convinced by ABTOG at all. All they have done is sign up 2 companies that stand to benefit if someone comes along with a cheque book. This, has not happened so far. Its all about NEWFOUNDLAND and nothing else to me.

[taxibabe] 15/4/2015 12:28

richgit ENEGI was dropping like a stone long before Oil turned down. It was £2.20 in 2009 and less than 15p in 2014. Further, the original mistake of management was to take the short cut and do a "work-over" of an existing and poorly drilled well. Naturally, when this failed, as it was bound to do, there was no money left. Its a pity that they did not come to the market properly funded and do a well campaign at ghs. Properly drilled wells could have made a lot of money for shareholders and the directors and other insiders as well. Instead, taking short cuts and scripping on the flotation meant nothing for anyone, except the insiders. Interesting also that LAST-THROW declines to put the result of his meeting with Mr Minty on the bb. I wonder why?

[last throw] 15/4/2015 12:01

richgit

Balanced and well articulated post - thanks.

LT

[richgit] 15/4/2015 10:47

Eneg has been a disaster so far.

However so many other Oil stocks have been, in what is perceived as a sentiment akin to the end of Oil requirements forever.


That will be a huge mistake overall, and somewhat apparent when Oil does finally
head back to $60 and slowly higher.
The US has killed Millions for Oil & the $Petrodollar and still imports plenty
of Oil,in fact seemingly increasing recently ??- but then there is Oil and Oil.


We can still remember when Oil wasn't perceived as no longer required and that
indeed BSE wanted to (at the time) spend multiples of ENEG`s then Market Cap, and quite obviously many multiples of todays sub £2 Million.

That at least gave some foresight of its asset value at circa $100pbl and that value certainly wont have suddenly disappeared when the World reminds all it needs Oil.

Should we take a knife and slash that perceived asset value by 40% which still
leaves "potentially" a fair multiple step beyond £2 Million

ABTOG are in the right game at the right time, albeit Mr Minty couldn't convince
Investors last year- yet maybe He can in 2015.

A huge bet for those that believe it, whilst Mr Minty needs to play an upfront
game with ALL investors and not get caught out again by the knowledge of the few

This has been about an unfortunate developing mistrust of Management and something that needs urgently addressing.


However the potentials for sentiment to turn on its head remain,yet obviously not for any hapless insiders and T+ traders.

I daresay at some point all news from ABTOG will be believed,(considering the Muscle behind it)and at some point We will start to believe in the huge potential,as the timing is arguably perfect for ABTOG.





IMHO

[taxibabe] 15/4/2015 09:22

last-throw let me guess Mr Minty would not see you?

[chinadog3] 15/4/2015 08:59

Nice to hear from you LT

[last throw] 15/4/2015 08:36

greyfriarbob

Yes.

LT

[taxibabe] 15/4/2015 08:18

richgit it could be that I am related to Jean Paul Getty and therefore heir to a large oil dynasty, but then again, maybe not lol

[richgit] 14/4/2015 23:27

A battered Oil Market and its assets,probably suggests that ABTOG offers
solutions at the right time for an increasing audience prepared to listen.

It could be somewhat ironic that an Oil Market on its knees,may be the greatest
opportunity of all time for ABTOG.

[greyfriarbob] 14/4/2015 22:06

Last-Throw you happy with news ?

[richgit] 14/4/2015 14:44

It is rarely a simple Black or White..



What's Really Behind The U.S Crude Oil Build




OilPrice.com.


Last week we saw another 10MB massive crude oil build domestically at a time when US production is flattening, refinery capacity is rising and gasoline demand is growing (5% year over year vs. 3% or lower in the recent past). This divergence can be explained in part from the rising import of heavier oil which accounted for 6.1MB (869,000 B/D) of the 10MB build last week. Imports for the week rose a whopping 6.5% sequentially and 8.5% vs. the 4 week moving average! Once again the chase to create sensationalistic headlines to drive down oil is self-evident as US production rose a meager 14,000B/D and was not the main cause of the rise. So why, month after month since 2014, have imports risen when there exists a “glut” in US oil inventories?

In 2014 according to the EIA, API Gravity (the weight of oil) steadily increased and rose 2.84% which is very significant in adding to the oversupply of US oil. In January 2015 that number rose to nearly 3.1% year over year, according to the latest data point we have from the EIA. Given the recent surge in imports last week the bet it has risen even more.


Imports generally have a higher API vs. US lighter produced oil. If refinery capacity is skewed towards processing heavy imported oil vs. lighter US produced oil, as demand rises you will, as a result, be short heavy and long light. Not surprisingly this is exactly what occurred the past 6 months as demand is accelerating for gasoline at a time when US production in late 2014 was rising rapidly. This is only natural because refinery capital expenditures haven’t exactly been front and center for the majors given lackluster US gasoline demand and the fact that only until the last 2-3 years did it become evident that US shale would grow to such an extent. Add on regulations and its no wonder US refineries were slow to adjust to the oil mix.

In the next 2 years refineries plan to add 300-400,000 B/D in 2015 and 2016 (3% of daily output) or 125M-130M barrels per year in lighter refining capacity targeting the use of US production vs. imports. That alone will add nearly 2.5MB per week in demand for US oil as an input in the context of stock builds of 10MB recently. It should be noted once again crude oil stock builds occur seasonally until May as a result of refinery maintenance which peaked in February as capacity stands at roughly 90%. Refineries are enjoying record margins so expect that number to rise significantly. That too will assist in reducing oil stock builds as will the 5% year over year gasoline demand as we move towards the seasonally strong driving season.

It is just amazing to see the lack of real analysis being done on both Wall Street and in the media especially. In recent weeks the sell side analysts who cover energy have become so complacent that they merely plug in the current strip prices into their earnings models for E&P companies. Not one, except Mike Rothman at Cornerstone Analytics, is questioning the “why?” or “how?” of what is occurring. The 200 or so players who effectively control the oil futures market have changed behavior and expectations as the oil price curve has collapsed. Prices from late 2016 into 2018 are essentially flat in the low to mid 60s, believe it or not, which would essentially bankrupt most of OPEC, US conventional oil, part of US shale and deep offshore drilling. So ask where is the oil going to come from? Yet the madness continues until investors realize E&P companies need a higher price to justify investments in the space.

[nick rubens] 14/4/2015 13:05

I reckon funds are needed and maybe soon indeed IMO.
I still can't understand what has been achieved for the past several years.

[taxibabe] 14/4/2015 10:26

hot air from enegi this morning. Marginal this and Marginal that yawn. Had hoped they had resolved the £800 debt issue to black spruce or something.

[richgit] 14/4/2015 09:20

Sentiment can change fast.

I am sure few of us foresaw the Oil price crash,but then considering the US
and most of the West is currently almost totally reliant on a Consumer economy
where the Consumer is maxed out on debt, then one way to put some money in their
pockets was indeed a fortuitous or typically over-leveraged derivatives creation from mass manipulation.

The truth of that will take some time to be known

The ensured consequence of a deflationary type spiral whereby in particular
Opec are forced to increase production and sell their valuable, and faster in the ground declining asset in the Oil War.


It seems from todays news there is a new kid on the block,and solidly cemented
for real Oil.

That may become apparent to more - when sentiment changes,and maybe some foresight that some cannot afford these Oil Wars for too much longer.

Certainly those writing off Multi $Billions in the "wrong" parts the US Oil shale game will never be convinced to pull out their cheque books again there.

[risk1] 14/4/2015 08:22

They need this over a penny for the phat un tho i think??

[risk1] 14/4/2015 08:16

Yep phat one due anyone????

[malctim70] 14/4/2015 08:13

Or Kongsberg could buy Eneg out of the petty cash drawer....

[nick rubens] 14/4/2015 08:07

Will need a huge fund raising?