Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[safiande] 26/9/2022 15:21

"I saw Safi post but sorry mate I could not really follow the valuation, can you help or anyone else."

Stew,

The post covered the NPV 10 valuation i.e. using a 10% forward discount rate, in the recent GCA report dated 26 Aug 2022 which is enclosed to Conrad´s prospectus. The valuation best case ( mid ) is $578m post tax which is $49m net to EME. So say $50m net to EME. These valuations are usually conservative. Therefore as mentioned in the earlier post 50143 the valuation could ultimately increase as from say FID ( mid 2023 ) based on a transition from best to high case, increased well production & sales from 120mmscf/d to 150mmscf/d related to well performance, PSC extended from 2037 to 2054, additional exploration potential below the current shallow discovery etc. It assumes that 88% of the gross field volumes lies within the PSC.
The GCA report mentions that Conrad is discussing two alternative potential gas sales to Singapore, both of which have reached closing stages of negotiations. This was a month ago today so I am sure that Conrad hope that the GSA(s) can be signed during the first half of Oct. The prospectus closes on 14 Oct and I believe that someone mentioned that listing is on 21 Oct.

[blakieboy7] 26/9/2022 15:18

Ah Jimmy Carr is in the room! You could at least say something original

[roundtheworld] 26/9/2022 14:57

I was called condescending recently which was utter rubbish!!

For the those who don’t know ‘condescending’ means talking down to someone.

[lazarus2010] 26/9/2022 14:04

JJ, it wasn't antagonistic, possibly patronising in that I provided you with an example of both, however it was meant to be irony, and there I go again, being patronising by explaining the sub-context of the post...;-)

Just chill and stop being so bloody negative!!

[judijudi] 26/9/2022 13:12

Ey up Buzzz
Sticking your Oar in where it’s not wanted
Super effort
Well played
👏👏🤣😂

[odillon] 26/9/2022 13:03

Thanks Curry P - good to know it is getting done.

[currypasty] 26/9/2022 12:41

Empyrean Energy PLC (EME: AIM) announces that a General Meeting ('GM') will be held at Cenkos Securities, 6.7.8 Tokenhouse Yard, London EC2R 7AS at 10.00 a.m. on 19 October 2022.

On 16 September 2022, the Company announced the final results for the year ended 31 March 2022 and that the full Report and Accounts are available on the Company's Website ('Annual Report and Accounts'). As announced on 2 September 2022, the Company was unable to publish the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts together with the Notice of Annual General Meeting.

[judijudi] 26/9/2022 12:28

I think your last post has proven my point about your antagonising and patronising posts better than my command of the English language ever could 🤣😂👏👏8077;👌ԅ14;🤣

[lazarus2010] 26/9/2022 12:11

JJ...wtf? I've pointed out factually that you are looking at these graphs from your typical 'the world is ending' viewpoint!

ALL prices are up yoy.

The PoO is not dropping like a stone, for a graph of something dropping like a stone, look at the top of this page!!

And how is 'Maybe look at the big picture, not the little one?' patronising or any of the above antagonistic?

Patronising would be congratulating you on a) being able to read a graph (although incorrectly) and b) on spelling antagonistic, although clearly you don't know the meaning of the word!

ps a vast majority of your replies to posters are 'antagonistic and patronising' ;-) so touche (where is that acute accent when you need one!!)

[judijudi] 26/9/2022 11:02

Maybe you stop being antagonistic and patronising?

[lazarus2010] 26/9/2022 10:40

agreed, every graph tells a story, every price is higher than 12 months ago. US gas still higher than 3 months ago. Go figure!

Saudi recently made a small cut in production of c. 100,000bopd, they have no intention of producing more than the market can absorb and are in a mood to defend PoO as best they can.

They have issued statements basically saying that there is a disconnect between the current prices and the actual supply, and this is being driven by market makers and their scaremongering.

The Duyung deal has a benchmark of $80/bbl Brent, which is currently at $85.

Maybe look at the big picture, not the little one?

[judijudi] 26/9/2022 10:25

Laz,
🤦🏻🤷‍♂;️🙈
No need

The graphs above tell the price story better than any post

[lazarus2010] 26/9/2022 10:10

JJ, take your doom tinted glasses off...

WTI down 0.5% today
Brent down 0.27%

Gas might be down, however historic average over last 5 years for TTF is about EUR17/MWhrs...it's currently at EUR170/MWhr, so it might be falling, but it's coming off a very high peak! Also the drop in prices is good for the global economy. If it translates into lower inflation, the despots in the Fed and BoE might reign in their interest rises which are one of the main factors that is pushing us into a global recession! Their fixation on inflation using a mechanism which destroys economies is like taking the proverbial sledgehammer to crack a nut!

Crude Oil
USD/Bbl
78.335 0.405 -0.51% -8.49% -18.80% 3.53% 10:06
Brent
USD/Bbl
85.918 0.232 -0.27% -7.17% -17.02% 7.39%

[judijudi] 26/9/2022 09:13

curry,
Oil and Gas prices are falling like a stone

[lazarus2010] 26/9/2022 08:37

Curry, JB posts it daily on Telegram

[soggy] 26/9/2022 07:33

Another week begins - a desert of news? A mirage? Or an oasis going to appear...?

[orkneyarab] 24/9/2022 11:46

How's Trinity doing for you? Lol

[roundtheworld] 23/9/2022 19:29

When asked at his year end review what his greatest achievements were in 21/22, TK proudly responded that he could now control a fart without following through.

[currypasty] 23/9/2022 16:12

laz, thanks for your view..

have you got a gas price chart for say a year or two to date, ive lost track where we are up too.. Brent is off nearly $5 to $85, just wondered if gas is still high

[lazarus2010] 23/9/2022 16:02

CURRYPASTY23 Sep '22 - 09:32 - 50189 of 50202
0 5 0
Stew, they don't know what to do, that's the trouble. Like most AIM CEO's they are just chancers and gamblers.

Can anyone realistically believe the GSA will come 'shortly' I can't! What would that do to the Conrad IPO? Would they pull it, or if it went ahead would it be fully subscribed?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Curry et al...fwiw...my take on this

Conrad themselves have got the CPR report and a NPV10 valuation of their asset.

The GSA, when it arrives, will basically confirm the NPV10 calculation, and I believe it may even increase it as the CPR more than likely errs on the side of caution.

IMHO Conrad have said fk it, we can't keep waiting, we can IPO based on the NPV10 figures and sell 30% of our shares. That way we get cash in hand while the NPV10 figure is high as it's based on $80 oil x 12%.

HNWIs / their advisors who take shares in the IPO will fully understand the discount to actual NAV being offered and will readily invest. Once listed and after the PoD and GSA are announced, the share price should rise. Conrad will benefit in 2 ways:

1. Cash in hand now in case PoO drops and the NPV10 drops
2. If the PoO doesn't tank (why should it, apart from a global recession!?) then their remaining 70% will increase in value as the share price rises in accordance with the PoD and GSA news.

EME and Coro have retail PIs investing who are like a shoal of sardines. As soon as a shark attacks they head for cover and bury their heads in the shoal, but as soon as the water clears they will come back en masse. Not good for the share price now or for any desperate fund raising. Both Coro and EME have loans outstanding and this puts fear into many investors, but as soon as those loans are covered the fear will disappear and the share price should rise.

That is unless our very own Baldrick has another fkng cunning plan!!

Have a great weekend, and remember, parks and libraries and a lot of museums are free, so us hard up EME shareholders can still pretend we have some money and take the kids/grandkids out for a cheap day!!

[blueblood] 23/9/2022 15:58

Duying worth sfa then?