Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[apollocreed1] 25/3/2020 23:45

ESP at the end of the day has lots of small flats, so if there are no student takers why can't they be let out to anybody else who needs a flat? I can't see why they would lose any income from voids if they took that approach.

[spectoacc] 24/3/2020 15:49

Largely agree, assuming the world hasn't changed, and assuming this doesn't take a year to resolve. Not sure ESP would do well with an entire 12 months of missing income.

Some mad, mad moves today - oil up 15 cents, RDSB up 18%.

[chucko1] 24/3/2020 15:27

Good call. Did the same, but underwater as I forgot to sell the ones I bought higher!! Too busy selling riskier things. This will recover, even if 2020/21 is a washout. This share’s weakness is to do with its former poor execution and that part has been largely overcome.

[spectoacc] 24/3/2020 15:25

Well done, all counts. Also looking to sell into this rally, can only see extended bad news ahead, particularly US death rate, and ours in a fortnight.

Perhaps some better news after that.

[stemis] 24/3/2020 15:22

Closed out at 70.95p net. Could go a bit further but not enough upside to risk it. That's a 30 % profit in 5 days. Normally I'd pretty happy but at the moment it's just a drop of blue in a bath of red...

[stemis] 19/3/2020 14:00

Picked up a few. Don't think that university will be cancelled this September and, if it is, the absolute worst case scenario is that ESP will have no income and £45.7m of costs to bear (probably quite a bit less); they have £67.5m of undrawn facilities so no funding issues. That's about 7.6p a share compared to NAV of 110.2p. The following year the universities would have an extra year to accommodate so I don't think there'd be much probably with occupancy or price...

Can't see this less than 90p in a year or two, which would be 65% return.

[chucko1] 18/3/2020 23:00

Half of NAV is a decent entry point. Even if next year is a washout. If I’m wrong, good luck with your alternative!!

[spectoacc] 18/3/2020 20:49

Why the directorate change I wonder?

Agree re DIGS etc, all going fine - but only until it doesn't. All the student bed providers are a gamble on Covid-19 not sticking around too long. Plenty say it will be with us a year.

But - everything has its price, tho not sure where that is.

[belgraviaboy] 18/3/2020 20:44

I thought the results were pretty good.....

[jonwig] 06/3/2020 07:33

Obviously fears about future student numbers and covi have knocked this.
DIGS (also whacked) says in its HY numbers to 31/12:

Further, the Board and the Investment Manager are monitoring the potential impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak both in terms of the ability of students to attend their universities, and therefore occupy student rooms, and in terms of the wellbeing of the residents in the Company's buildings. The Board notes that, at the date of publication, bookings for the forthcoming year are in line with 2019/20 and residents for the current academic year continue to occupy their rooms. Student applications for full time higher education for the 2020/21 academic year have increased by 1.2% year-on-year.

Once the UK spread becomes epidemic with maybe 50% infection, it makes no sense to limit overseas student numbers!

[skinny] 17/2/2020 07:57

.

The board of Empiric Student Property plc (ticker: ESP) (the "Board"), the owner and operator of premium student accommodation across the UK, has declared a dividend of 1.25 pence per Ordinary Share in respect of the quarter ended 31 December 2019, payable on 20 March 2020 to all Ordinary Shareholders on the register on 28 February 2020. The ex-dividend date will be 27 February 2020.

0.85 pence of this dividend will be paid as a Property Income Distribution ("PID") in respect of the Company's tax-exempt property rental business and 0.40 pence will be paid as an Ordinary UK dividend ("non-PID").

The Board is targeting an aggregate dividend of 5.0 pence per share for the year to 31 December 2019.1

[chucko1] 07/2/2020 12:27

These are all tangible quantities. Trust, alas, is not and that is where there is still a deficit, albeit rapidly shrinking.

[spangle93] 07/2/2020 11:51

There's an interesting comparison of ESP with DIGS and UTG in a table in this recent Edison update



Dividend higher and p/NAV lower than the other two, but share price appreciation well lags its peers

[horndean eagle] 07/2/2020 08:11

Did think it was primed to head higher and people were going to move on from uncovered dividend. No one makes much of a fuss about all the others with uncovered dividends. Should head towards nav and then a small premium. Rest of sector on quite large premiums but that might take a while longer.

[stevegrass777] 29/1/2020 09:36

Looking good, steady as she goes progress, I notice it says 95% based on current portfolio, so is that a nod to indicate that ESP might be after a earnings enhancing property purchase?
Anyway even with the current portfolio things look very positive.
If they keep the dividend the same in a few years time rental growth will cover that 5% discrepancy without any more improvements or bolt on acquisitions /properties.
Great news

[spectoacc] 29/1/2020 07:32

Still not fully covered, but the discount more than accounts for it IMO.

[skinny] 29/1/2020 07:31

.

Highlights

· Full year 2019 performance is in line with previously announced guidance, with the business expected to achieve a gross margin of around 67% and dividend cover in excess of 85%. Administration costs are expected to be around £9.5 million.

· The Company remains on track to meet its aggregate dividend target of 5.0 pence per share for the year ended 31 December 2019, payable quarterly, of which 3.75 pence per share has been paid for the nine months ended 30 September 2019.

· Improvements are continuing to be made across the business, which are expected to strengthen further the financial and operational performance of the Group in 2020 and over the longer-term, delivering sustainable benefits to the Company's customers and shareholders.

· For the year ending 31 December 2020, the Board expects administration costs to remain broadly flat and anticipates delivering an enhanced gross margin and achieving a further improvement in dividend cover to around 95% based on the current portfolio.

more.....

[rik shaw] 18/1/2020 10:50

Surely this has got to be dragged up by the likes of UTG and DIGS which have seen share price fly up in the last few months.

[spectoacc] 17/1/2020 14:02

Indeed. I always thought Numis turning positive would be the buy signal - looks more like it'll be the sell signal!

[chucko1] 17/1/2020 13:21

Well, I had not really expected this sudden rally (nice, though it is), but I do feel the market is looking to rerate many REITs.

For those who stand by the NAV argument (I don’t), this still is at a reasonable discount. The memory of poor management now seems to be fading, and perhaps this is no longer a tarnished stock. Patience has been rewarded (yet again) for those who focus on the longer term. But notably absent in such an analysis is Numis. Brexit was unlikely to have an effect, either way, on ESP, so it was always surprising how slow they were to see the upside for ESP. For all I can tell, they still do not and have maintained their target share price of 91p. It was clearly nearer to this sort of level.

[bullsvbears] 14/1/2020 21:43

Firming - encouraged no doubt by Watkins Jones' comments about expected rise in future student numbers....

[stevegrass777] 17/12/2019 21:48

JCs polocies were bonkers, it must have put off investors into the UK from abroad, and investors in general, that includes property and shares.
So pleased the British public has some common sense!