Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 17/12/2019 08:55

If there is another hard left party, it will very likely fare no better than this one (Labour under JC). Why? Because they never do well. U.K. simply doesn’t vote that way nationally.

What has yet to be tested, though, is whether such a party might win were there to be a severe recession under a Tory government. Or depression (something much worse than the early 1980s).

[apollocreed1] 17/12/2019 01:58

@Joe Say - By temporarily, I mean until the next election in 5 years time. I still think there will be another hard-left party at the next election.

[joe say] 16/12/2019 07:16

Temporarily ?????

With Boris's majority me thinks a bit longer

[apollocreed1] 15/12/2019 01:43

I'd think that ESP is now a buy seeing that there's a lot less Brexit uncertainty and the threat of a socialist government has temporarily been averted.

[epo001] 26/11/2019 12:18

ESP seems to be late going ex-div for the first interim this year. No RNSs I've noticed either.

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 10:13

DIGS seemed pretty good this morning, NAV up c.2.5%, tho still nowhere near as high as the s/p! And UTG's deal got the waive-through yesterday.

[stevegrass777] 31/10/2019 13:32

Really good update, happy to hold.
Nice defensive sector at a reasonable price.
Good income. Personally I'm not worried about the cover, because I think the statement at the end that said next year will be the first year that covers all properties under our full control (or there abouts) and I feel that will make the difference of 85% cover to 100%.
Anyway it's a much better company than when I first bought and feel the progress deserves a re rating.

[spectoacc] 31/10/2019 11:46

Struggle to disagree, but the large discount keeps me in. Think they genuinely need that divi covered first.

[chucko1] 31/10/2019 11:45

It’s all “ok”. Investors look for better than “ok”. Maybe one day it will find favour again, but a catalyst for this is not immediately obvious. Pretty safe, though, now the new management have rightened the ship.

I do agree that it is cheap as compared with the others, but the others have demonstrated they can make the model work. This might just be the better risk/reward, though. That said, there are still better REIT risk/rewards I can think of.

[spectoacc] 31/10/2019 10:04

Fair comment. Expenses half a million lower tho ;)

Any which way, they're well beyond the previous fiasco, yet rated chronically low compared to the others (who, IMO, are massively over-rated, UTG in particular).

[jgh03] 31/10/2019 09:23

Are they performing in line ? The dividend cover of 85% may be in line with the announcement made in March, but it is still below the "fully covered" forecast offered in July 2018. My sense is that they are progressing, but more slowly than I would have hoped.

[skinny] 31/10/2019 07:10

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The board of Empiric Student Property plc (ticker: ESP) (the "Board"), the owner and operator of premium student accommodation across the UK, is pleased to provide the following update on trading.

Student revenue is expected to be approximately 10% up in full year 2019 compared to full year 2018, driven by an increase in the number of beds, increased occupancy and an increase in revenue generated per bed. The Company is continuing to reduce average cost per bed and expects a reduction of approximately 8% for full year 2019.

Bookings for the 2019/20 academic year are currently at 93%, in line with the corresponding point in the previous academic year. The Company anticipates similar opportunities to sell semester lets as achieved during the 2018/19 academic year, which successfully increased bookings to achieve 97% occupancy. The Company anticipates c. 3% growth in average rents for the 2019/20 academic year.

Full year 2019 performance is on track, with the business expected to achieve a gross margin of around 67% and dividend cover in excess of 85%. Administration costs are expected to be around £9.5 million, slightly below the Company's previous guidance of £10 million.

The Group has also started selling for the 2020/21 academic year, which will be the first full academic year that the Company has the benefit of direct control of its improved and established sales processes for all of its properties. Much of the operational reorganisation has now been achieved and the Company continues to focus on embedding and driving further improved efficiencies across the business through the Group's operational platform.

The Board intends to provide guidance on the Company's full year 2020 in late January 2020.

[maddox] 13/9/2019 10:26

Hi Chuck,

Totally agree - madness - as is the inclusion of student numbers in immigration figures.

The Govt now is aiming to increase the number of International Students to 600k from the current 450k over the next 10 years.



On the basis that PBSA beds are being built at a rate of 25,000 per year - and UK demand is still rising - it appears that the under-supply that supports rental growth is likely to be maintained.

Regards, Maddox

[chucko1] 11/9/2019 13:34

“Bone-headed” is an understatement. She was the only senior politician who thought it was a good idea. It was patently mad, but she paid the price of her madness in the end. Geoff Boycott being the only winner, it would seem, other than those hopeless advisors she saw fit to listen to.

No effect on the share price, though. Market appears bored with ESP having been punished twice over the past three years or so. It’s not exactly growing.

[maddox] 11/9/2019 11:54

Excellent news today for all UK Universities and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) providers. The Govt is to change the rules to now allow foreign students studying in the UK to stay-on to work for a further two years unrestricted. There are currently 450k international students in the UK. This move will undoubtedly boost numbers as the UK has been far less attractive than other top destinations, specifically Australia and US that already allow students to stay-on to work.

This thankfully reverses the disastrous bone-headed approach introduced by Theresa May as Home Secretary to require students to leave after 4 months. May saw students as a soft target to hit her hopeless immigration targets - despite the hard evidence that very few were over-stayers.

This move applies to all trusted higher education providers and will thus exclude the dodgy language schools that were flouting the immigration rules.



Regards, Maddox

[skinny] 20/8/2019 15:51

I've increased by 25%.

[chucko1] 20/8/2019 15:31

It’s worth remembering that DIGS yields 3.74%. ESP yields 5.38%

That’s too wide given the increasing stability of the latter.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 14:07

I guess one question might be - "why aren't your earnings higher". Isn't as if they're doing an NRR and paying out a 14% yield - they're paying barely what they promised to pay at listing, and certainly not what they'd intended to be up at by now.

But that discount - compared to peers - surely has to close eventually.

[chucko1] 20/8/2019 14:04

There was very little to indicate the route to full div cover. I need to see that to get excited about this, but I do agree that they nailed the results yet again and the risk is therefore lower again. Deserves a lower discount. An 8% lift to about 100p plus 5p of divs suggests a yield for the next year of about 13 or 14%. Fine by me, so might actually add a few.

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 13:58

I think if/when that divi is finally fully covered, we'll see it trading nearer to the rising NAV - if it doesn't get taken out first.

[stevegrass777] 20/8/2019 13:50

Really pleased with progress here,It does seem that outsourcing facilities management and previous BOD were a problem that seems to be now solved.
Dividend cover is progressing as planed and so is everything else.
Nav up a bit too.
Really good.

[sailing john] 20/8/2019 10:15

Bookings appear to be slightly down on last year - remains on watch for me.

Today - "Bookings of 85% for the 2019/20 academic year at 19 August and progressing well"

Last year - "Bookings of 87% at 14 August 20185, putting us on track for full occupancy of 97% for the 2018/19 academic year (Note: Bookings of 87% at 14 August 2018 is contained within the Interim Report. Bookings increased to 89% at 20 August 2018 as set out in the analyst presentation on 21 August)."

[spectoacc] 20/8/2019 08:24

ESP seemingly specialising in absolutely bang on t/s's and "steady as she goes", after the early years of surprises/disappointments.

Market not really woken up to that IMO, and rating them on a fat discount (notwithstanding that divi still won't be fully covered).

Had a quick look at sector peers - last Unite Group EPRA NAV 820p, trading at 1043p. DIGS EPRA NAV 163.96p, trading at 165p.

ESP's 108.5p vs 93p is certainly an outlier - expecting that to close, eventually. Should be trading nearer £1 IMO, making an allowance for earlier disappointments.

[rik shaw] 20/8/2019 07:45

Yes compared with dividend cover H1 2018 at 60% this has moved a long way in the right direction.