Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 17/7/2018 12:32

Slowly recovering.

[spectoacc] 10/7/2018 14:04

Yes beats the relentless grind down ;)

[chucko1] 10/7/2018 09:47

I have been waiting for the sellers to turn up and hold this below 90, but they have not. This would be the first time since the profit warning of September last year that progressive news has not seen a share price rise lasting for only a very brief period (two days or less).

That said, it's only slightly more exciting then watching paint dry. But at least it's drying for once.

[skinny] 06/7/2018 11:19

Looking better.

[chucko1] 06/7/2018 11:12

stevegrass777, I believe that what you are suggesting is not a sure-fire road to riches. But it’s very likely the correct direction of travel.

I have long studied the timing and opinion of leading brokers’ estimates and at best, they are random. In fact, it seems that the natural herding and safety mentality is costly.

[stevegrass777] 06/7/2018 09:22

The trouble with brokers is as the price goes up they revise there targets and very rarely do it way in advance, especially on recovery stocks that I tend to buy.
The brokers are nearly always negative for quite a while and end up just revising the targets along the way.
Brokers aren't worth following in my opinion.
I tend to buy shares everyone is talking down or against.

[spectoacc] 06/7/2018 06:50

@chucko1 - entirely agree. Numis still being bearish is a bit odd.

[chucko1] 05/7/2018 21:20

daviepj, this BB is way ahead of the game! I reckon the analysts should come on here on Trading Update day to find out what they should be writing!!! (I'm only half joking).

That said, Numis started all the price target downgrades and still remain the lowest with a target share price of 91p (we are at 90p today). Others are higher at around 100p. It still remains important when and if Numis find cause to raise their target share price as they have persistently been very negative on management. They really ought to reconfirm what they think as management has significantly changed the past year or so. Were they to do this, one of the major headwinds to share price rating goes away.

[daviepj] 05/7/2018 20:45

There is a part of the article at citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/merchants-takes-the-lead-in-trust-dividend-turnarounds/a1136016?re=56335&ea=398014&utm_source=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Weekly&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Weekly&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Weekly that covers ESP

[horndean eagle] 05/7/2018 13:06

Pleased to see they are continuing to deliver on their recovery plan. Still a long way to go before market gives them benefit of the doubt but every day is hopefully a step closer.

[chucko1] 05/7/2018 08:59

If they are being selective, they are selecting the most appropriate figures in this brief update. Full occupancy at rates they previously indicated were higher than last year's (though by a tad less than the then inflation) is a key measure. And so is the operating margin as this takes into account the huge misses on cost management (which I believe to be the focal point of the comapny's previous unacceptable performance).

This update is all a long term holder should have reasonably expected in order to remain positive. For ESP, "boring" is the new "good". The dividend cover will take care of itself in such circumstances.

[speedsgh] 05/7/2018 08:44

Seems OK although not a lot of meat in there to go on. One trusts that they are not being selective with the figures they have chosen to include in the TU.

[stevegrass777] 05/7/2018 08:38

Yes making progress on delivering what is needed like higher margins and dividend cover.

[spectoacc] 05/7/2018 07:30

Seems to read well, eg:

"Bookings for the 2018/19 academic year are continuing to progress well and are currently at 76% compared to 63% at the same time last year, and up from 57% as announced by the Company on 25 April 2018. "

[chucko1] 04/7/2018 16:37

daviepj, you are correct. But I would say that your analysis merely represents the symptoms of the past failure to manage costs (both actual and timing) and avoid low occupancy rates of certain locations (Cardiff and Aberdeen in particular).

If they get that right, the non-PID portion will take care of itself in lockstep with the EPRA dividend coverage. That willbecome clearer over the coming months with a further indication of where they are at tomorrow morning.

[daviepj] 04/7/2018 16:20

I have been watching the percentage of the divi that is paid as "non PID" as this seems to give an indication of progress towards a covered divi - think if divi is 100% PID, it is covered by income from holdings.

4th July 2017 28% non PID
23rd Nov 2017 100% non PID
28th Feb 2018 33% non PID
23rd May 2018 84% non PID.

Quite a long way from paying the divi as 100% PID. Interesting to see what they say in the update.

[chucko1] 04/7/2018 15:03

epo001, the issue you are referring to has not as yet been cited as a reason for income shortfall. In any event, the availablility of funds for deposit and rent is not the issue as any UK student would be eligible for a student loan. Foreign students typically pay a year upfront. Some portion of rents are underwritten by the respective unversitites themselves.

[epo001] 04/7/2018 12:20

So long as they have the money to pay their rent and leave a deposit.

[stevegrass777] 03/7/2018 20:33

Yes I agree with everything you said, I also read recently that the UK gov has relaxed university applications from abroad by quite a bit, like the money they have to have etc.I am very positive that esp will make progress on dividend cover.
If they have its a very good sign.

[chucko1] 03/7/2018 17:31

Well, they've all been interesting, but there has so far been very muted reaction to their increasing positivity. It is as though this stock is sufficiently hated that only the actuality of full EPRA div cover for FY 2019 (published in March 2020, I think) will bring the share price back to close to NAV.

But, I think the smart trade (all other things being equal) is to look at the FY 2018 div cover. They have targetted 70% or so and if they meet that, I reckon investors will be looking to jump on board as the management's credibility will have sufficiently returned. In other words, the prospects for ESP will be forward-looking once more rather than merely facts based.

What is key for this update is that forward bookings maintain the trend of being somewhat ahead of this same time lat year. I think that the matter of costs is rather easier and has been pretty well identified. Of course, they must not fail on costs - that would be a disaster - but that is an execution thing rather than a business case thing. Their competitors have successfully managed costs.

[stevegrass777] 03/7/2018 17:00

Could be interesting.

[clausentum] 03/7/2018 13:13

2 more days until trading update.

[stevegrass777] 20/6/2018 10:18

This has got to be good for business.

[skinny] 23/5/2018 07:22

Dividend Declaration

The Board of Empiric Student Property plc (ticker: ESP), the owner and operator of premium student accommodation across the UK, has declared a dividend of 1.25 pence per Ordinary Share in respect of the quarter ended 31 March 2018, payable on 15 June 2018 to all Ordinary Shareholders on the register on 1 June 2018. The ex-dividend date will be 31 May 2018.

0.20 pence of this dividend will be paid as a Property Income Distribution ("PID") in respect of the Company's tax exempt property rental business and 1.05 pence will be paid as an Ordinary UK dividend ("non-PID").

The Board is targeting a dividend of 5 pence per share for the year to 31 December 2018.1

Note:

(1) The target dividend is a target only and not a forecast. There can be no assurance that the target will be met and it should not be taken as an indication of the Company's expected or actual future results.

[chucko1] 14/5/2018 13:30

Yes, I also wish to see Numis less doubtful. Market moves in late 2017 were, it appears, somewhat correlated with their output (which I have never seen).