Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Empiric Student Property Plc LSE:ESP London Ordinary Share GB00BLWDVR75 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 94.00 93.60 93.80 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment & Services 64.2 40.3 6.7 14.1 567

Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3826 to 3849 of 4000 messages
Chat Pages: 160  159  158  157  156  155  154  153  152  151  150  149  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
25/4/2018
11:43
Will the growth of online degrees have an impact? Https://hub.birmingham.ac.uk/news/online-degree-programmes-growth-impact-on-education This isn't an immediate threat, but it might indicate that the property aspect is going ex-growth. DIGS (which I hold) hasn't made much share price progress for ages, though London's prestige value for rich overseas students is propping it up. ESP is probably due a short-term boost, but how will its estate value react to extra voids? Are its buildings adaptable for alternative use?
jonwig
25/4/2018
11:24
Well, if and when the dividend is covered and the price remains <90p, the only remaining long term point of consideration is whether or not they can raise annual rents by around inflation. I am not sure who are the constant sellers of ESP, but I am not sure I really care anyway. The inherent value of ESP depends on the facts over the next 21 months or so, not one or other fund’s risk aversion. But we shall see in the next publication of the share register.
chucko1
25/4/2018
09:49
... which is reflected in the price, when we get the dividend covered I doubt if you will be able to buy in <90p. ... so if your an investor (and in for the longer term) as opposed to trader its a good time to be on board. ?
hannath
25/4/2018
09:08
The problem is the near 6% yield is earnings + repayment of capital, for another year at least!
clausentum
25/4/2018
08:51
the yield of 6% is hard to beat
kev0856153
25/4/2018
08:31
I imagine it's because he is a partner of RevCap and not independent. Here's the relationship between RevCap and Empiric hxxps://www.revcap.co.uk/portfolio_page/empiric-student-property-uk/ I don't see how he can stay on the board with such a big vote against his re-appointment. Clearly a lot of institutions are very unhappy that he is there.
stemis
25/4/2018
08:15
Why all the votes against re-appointing Stephen Alston? EDIT, Note at the bottom says there are doubts about his independence.
epo001
25/4/2018
07:59
.... and with the big discount to NAV !
hannath
25/4/2018
07:21
I've added (again) but market still seems very suspicious of ESP. Those costs are still high and could fall faster, but as long as they're succeeding operationally - which they keep saying they are - then I'm a lot more comfortable.
spectoacc
25/4/2018
06:55
nice trading update
kev0856153
26/3/2018
05:56
Thanks @chucko1, all interesting stuff. You nearly had me on NRR until the Woodford bit :) :)
spectoacc
25/3/2018
19:54
SpectoApp, I agree (although classifying DEB as quality [even in inverted commas] can be healthily debated. That said, I once bumped into Rod Stewart in a huge white fir coat accompanied by a lady with impossibly long boots, albeit back in the early 80s (Britt Eckland?) at their store on Oxford Street. It is worth checking out NRR which focuses on discretionary spending outlets (mainly convenience). This makes it rather remote from most troubled outlets although they do have some small exposure to New Look, but notably none of the stores scheduled for closure are in their portfolio. They also had an exposure to one small Maplins store. The management of NRR have seen a few cycles and this is the third successful venture of the current CEO. There are a number of informative interviews with the management on their web site, along with some other articles that describe the strategy of the company. The reason I mention all this is because it suffers along with other retail stuff, allowing a good entry point. This has allowed me to diversify a little away from ESP but on a REIT with a 7.25% yield which is more than covered. It trades also a few percent below NAV. Mind you, it seems that many of the REITs have lost their premia and so, if you feel that rates are not going to go too high, many are pretty good value now. Of course, if stocks generally fall from here, and I see good signs of this in the medium term, the REITs likely get cheaper too but I see many of them having pretty solid cash flows. FWIW, Woodford has a very large stake in NRR. Just a quick word on property, Prime resi in London is basically off 20 to 40% depending on required speed of sale. Trying to sell decent detached houses in the South east is also a nightmare with stuff stuck at stale prices for over a year. But around Bristol,midlands, Manchester etc., all seems fine.
chucko1
25/3/2018
18:56
@chucko1 - they're fine until the tenant threatens a CVA, & the landlords find themselves with a stark choice. Have to say I'm not sure what the future is for a lot of the High St - even some of the former "quality" players now wobbling, eg DEB & John Lewis.
spectoacc
25/3/2018
11:59
Yes, in some regards (referring to both being wary and tipping point). Long leases with upwards only reviews should be fine with rates low and likely not to move significantly higher. But Next has shorter leases and significant power to renegotiate, as demonstrated. Smaller retailers would have far less power as the landlord simply takes it on the chin (in a smaller way) until a replacement is found. And if Next remains the key (or one of the key) tenant in a shopping centre or retail park, then it remains likely to find a replacement for any smaller tenant. But levels of leverage are still relatively low as compared with 2006/7. This is slightly o/t and I am not sure that it relates that closely to the ESP portfolio which is closer to residential and not really south-east focused (where resi property is at record multiples of wages/salaries). Of course, they hardly have long leases but at least the use for the property is seemingly non-discretionary. Will the students continue to arrive? - seems so from the current level of forward bookings for 2018/19. At least one of the risks (Brexit) does not look like being as damaging as some had feared a year or so ago. I would not be confident about discretionary retail with credit card debt approaching the red zone.
chucko1
25/3/2018
10:15
Personally I'd be very wary of retail property. See comments by Next about rent reductions they have negotiated and expect to negotiate on renewal of leases (p32, 33) hxxp://www.nextplc.co.uk/~/media/Files/N/Next-PLC-V2/documents/reports-and-presentations/2018/Final%20website%20PDF.pdf That's a 27-28% reduction. I wonder if we are close to a tipping point on property valuations.
stemis
25/3/2018
07:14
Indeed; results were historic.
spectoacc
24/3/2018
19:17
Brwo349, the results were a positive in the sense that they indicated a likely sustainable improvement. In that regard alone, it should be somewhat encouraging relative to before the announcement. That said, it would appear that someone remains unimpressed. Yes, there are better REITs out there, but few at such a large discount. Those that are have their own distinct risks in particular those with exposure to London offices and discretionary retail.
chucko1
24/3/2018
17:13
The only surprise is the share price went up after the results. There are far more attractive REITS out there than this one.
brwo349
24/3/2018
07:37
Numis would be my guess. Surprising, considering the positive answers to their questions. And even if they think covering the divi not going to happen, you'd think the NAV discount would back the current s/p. But agreed re price action.
spectoacc
23/3/2018
18:10
That was shocking price action today. No other way of saying it. I suspect that someone or other has csst their slide rule over the numbers and increase in rents and reduction in costs and worked out that covering the EPRA dividend will not be easy or may not happen. The management said that the target was FY19 with strong milestones end of FY18. I can wait until then and take the risk which, I suspect, some fund or another was not prepared to. Other student REITs were not impacted today, so it’s an ESP specific bad day.
chucko1
23/3/2018
12:33
Thanks @speedsgh, just finished reading it, all very good. Not sure the fact we're pushing new lows after results is a good sign - seems we've got a ways to fall yet - but I'm happy to sit on them.
spectoacc
22/3/2018
21:03
Speedsgh, great effort on your part and many thanks. Saves me having to listen to the first part and read all the slides! I am entirely unsurprised by almost every response given. The rebuttal of the share buyback thesis was interesting. It actually makes no sense if you believe in the model they are pursuing - scale is important so better to keep developing and investing. Even though there is a quick 20% gain on the buyback route. It seems likely that they will sell small locations as the model tells them that you want concentration, and the selling prices will hopefully demonstrate how good a job the previous CEO and Attlee actually did in this respect. I have no reason upon these results and especially reading the Q & A to change my view that this is a pretty decent risk/reward for the medium and long term. The risks are twofold, in my opinion. Firstly the excessively high valuation on financial assets in general, and secondly the direction of interest rates (arguably little different from the first reason). I see these as notably greater than the actual risk of ESP itself failing to deliver operationally. Today, we saw 724 points of the Dow and some crazy tweets from Trump. On Tuesday we saw a bit of a mess in Tech, with FB and Uber asking if their valuations are truly justified. There is a heck of a lot of risk in all of this, especially with the backdrop of QE tapering and near record high CAPEs. ESP may not escape this, but at least it is not overvalued and is backed by good quality assets, so I am happy to stay right here and enjoy the rents. It seems a lot more promising now that they will collect these rents!
chucko1
22/3/2018
20:52
Excellent, thanks speedsgh
stemis
22/3/2018
19:58
Q&A session from the FY2017 Final Results webcast, part 5... Q (Andrew Gill, Jefferies: 43m35s) I’m just wondering on the completed developments, in the second year of operation, do you see an above portfolio uplift in rental growth once you’ve got students in-house? And just a second point for Lynne. Looking at the facility headroom in the debt, on a fully drawn basis what sort of cost of debt can we see, assuming stable interest rates? A (Tim Attlee, Acting CEO: 44m08s) So the answer is ‘yes’, you tend to target more conservative rents for the first year of a new development because you’re bringing something brand new into the market that nobody has had the opportunity to try or test. And the expectation, even having made that adjustment, is that you might not necessarily achieve 100% occupancy in the first year. So, that’s why I think it was striking to show you those two slides of Manchester & Nottingham where we actually did achieve 100% occupancy in the first year of trading. Many people will build in a buffer of maybe 90% that would be acceptable for the first year. Yes, you’re quite right, in the second year you will quite often see that you can adjust the rent and that the market might have moved ahead of you. Q (Andrew Gill, Jefferies: 44m50s) I know it depends on the market but is there any kind of quantum of portfolio target? Are we looking 3%? 5%+? A (Tim Attlee, Acting CEO: 44m58s) I think if you were modelling, I think that’s a reasonable assumption to make. You might achieve 5% going from first to second year. A (Lynne Fennah, CFO: 45m08s) We have, of the total facilities available to us of £390m at this time, £70m of that is RCF with Lloyds Bank and that is at a cheaper cost than our other facilities. So you can see the average rate that we have currently coming down slightly. And we have some facilities coming to the end this year and at the end of next year, and we’re looking at maybe swapping those out. So I hope that we’ll see the average weighted cost coming down.
speedsgh
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