Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 23/5/2021 12:21

Westie, remember that EML is now an AIM company, which has benefits if you're thinking of inheritance tax. If you hold for 2 years or more then the shares are IHT-free, as I understand it. So maybe best not to sell? (Assuming the company is successful of course)

[cyberbub] 23/5/2021 12:18

Lurker I know how NPVs work. What happened at SXX is irrelevant to EML, who have only used a 19 year NPV despite having twice that in mine life. Any cashflows after about 10 years are virtually zero when discounted anyway. And EML have used a very fair discount rate of 8% in my view.EML isn't going to reach its NPV today obviously! But peer group comparisons show that fully-permitted companies pre-financing are usually at approx 20-30% of their NPVs. EML is currently at 5%, which means that either there's something seriously wrong with the company that PIs are unaware of, or that it will shortly undergo a rerating. Given the quality and reputation of the management, the FS by a reputable company, the low risk of the location etc etc, my money is that a rerating is imminent. You can choose to disagree if you wish, don't invest if you think it's too risky for you.NAI DYOR

[westie50] 23/5/2021 11:23

I find myself agreeing with APF in that i really don't care if the directors buy anymore shares or not. I'd much rather the next RNS be EIA approval/funding news as opposed to a director buy.

NPV will always be part of the modern company projections but I do accept they represent potential figures way in the future. Those figures still have a relevance in my view. NPV though isn't the only figure presented. I'm much more interested in near term projections and one potential financiers might be interested in is the 'payback time'. That's been quoted at 2.6 years to 4.4 years depending on potash price.

Speaking personally, due to my age, I wont be here when we find out whether the projected NPV was correct or not. I'm only really interested in near to medium term predictions. EML wont be going to the grave with me, i'll have sold way before then!!

So whilst there's still an element of risk with no funding, I believe we'll be effectively de-risked once it's approved. I assume also any finance deal will be aligned to how the company want to proceed. That is, A phased approach or moving on as per the FS.

[dilip40] 23/5/2021 11:03

have held 1 million shares for 2 years at 5p.
at that time broker note said company should be trading at 12p on proven assets, then reserves were increased by 70% , broker figures when feasiblity came out shares would be 20p. an the feasiblity was better than expected on the numbers. morrocan govt was to grant $40m. unknown european bank said $240m finacnce they would give permits have been granted. despite all these the shares forlast 2 years have gyrated betwen 3.5p to 8p and each time they went to 6 7 or 8p have been sold down to 5p.
finance has not been forthcomig so far and if it does no gurantee equity raise will be at premium it could be 3 or 4p depending on the funder.
i have lost 2 years time value on eml when several of my shares have multibgged
sold all at 5.5p .i wish good luck to all holders .
o/t have a look at jlp and atym both producing and profitable no debt copper is on a roll dyor

[lurker5] 23/5/2021 08:56

NPV's take widely varying cash flows up to years ahead. Not only that, they are today's value of those cash flows. So why pay for them 'up front'. You're merely getting your investment back over the (long and unpredictable) project life plus whatever discount rate is used (and how do you determine that. Neither are they any guide to when the cash flows in to benefit shareholders. You can get the same NPV for a project that only gets cash in at the end as for one that gets it in at the beginning. And you can double a NPV by reducing the arbitrary discount rate or by adding 'predicted' earnings from a longer project life. What sensible investor will pay more now, from adding, say, 10 years to a 20 year project ? That's what sank SXX. The institutions wouldn't 'buy' the 55 year NPV the company and analysts were puffing.
NPV's are used only by bankers to know what cover there will be over the whole project life. No institution uses them to decide what price to pay 'up front'. Its only analysts and companies use them to puff a share, and because they can't be bothered to work out the actual earnings and cash per share over each project year. Its why no share has ever reached anywhere near its 'target' NPV based share price.

[cyberbub] 23/5/2021 00:49

Agreed APfindley.Also, NPV *is* clearly relevant. Ultimately by investing 'x' amount, you make cashflows over the years which total 'y' amount. That's the profit on your investment - the investment case!! With EML, by investing approx $150M in equity (original FS case), you can achieve an NPV of over $1bn!I will agree that the %age of an NPV which can be achieved by today's market cap is uncertain - Mr Market decides. But given the figures above, it has to be lot more than today's pathetic 5%!!NAI

[lurker5] 22/5/2021 14:29

Its not surprising the shares here are dithering. Despite the strong long term potential (provided everything clicks into place) there's tremendous uncertainty in the medium term. Which of the staged scenarios will happen ? What is the timetable for each stage? Each one has very different implications for cash flow per share over the next 4/5 years, which is what will determine the share price, and not (as per Hardmans) any airy-fairy 'long term' NPV or %age of it. NPV's are a illogical, misleading, elastic, and exaggerated guide anyway, to what an investor should pay for a share of an npv. Until EML comes up with a solid scenario, including the vital funding terms, I can't see the investors it wants to attract coming up with the dosh to value the shares fairly. It doesn't help that the directors don't seem to have much skin in the game. They're obviously just as uncertain as observers.

[hedgehog 100] 22/5/2021 10:28

"Mining industry of Morocco

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The mining industry of Morocco is important to the national economy. Morocco is the world's largest producer of phosphate, and contains about 75% of the world's estimated reserves.[1] Mining contributed up to 35% of exports and 5% of GDP in 2011.[2] Foreign investors have found the investment climate, the infrastructure, fiscal situation, and political stability very favorable to continue business in the country in this sector.[2] ...

Phosphate is the chief product and it accounted for 14% of the world's production in 2011. Morocco holds 75% of the phosphate reserves of the world, and is ranked third in the world in its production.[2] ...

Outlook
The mining sector is poised for increased participation of private sector companies and also in the fuel sector in natural gas and petroleum extraction. The mining sector operations now under the government sector have been proposed to be privatized to enhance production.[2] ..."

[westie50] 21/5/2021 22:16

FFS what's tiresome is the fact some people are never happy. If the EML directors were silent for months then the same people would still not be happy. Sell up and be a moaning old sod somewhere else

[cyberbub] 21/5/2021 21:29

Well it's quite possible. This latest online meeting seems to have been arranged at relatively short notice. It wouldn't surprise me that they've been tipped the wink that the EIA will be approved on Monday. Let's see anyway.

[nash19] 21/5/2021 20:51

I'd bet they have news!

[donald pond] 21/5/2021 19:53

I think the directors doing the same presentation over and over again is tiresome. They've exhausted PIs pockets and patience. If they have news then fine, otherwise go away until they have something new to say.

[nash19] 21/5/2021 19:50

The comments about directors investing are tiresome. I've worked for 2 FTSE 100 cos have quite a few shares and never bought one. I always considered myself vested as I've decent holdings by way of performance options. Be in no doubt that is the case here.

[fozzie] 21/5/2021 14:20

I only wish they were negotiating hard on financing, this is taking forever.

[chinahere] 21/5/2021 14:20

edit. sorry ignore me.

[mesb48] 21/5/2021 14:15

Worth a listen - James Kelly, Chairman

replace the xx with tt

hxxps://t.co/eetBCQ4dcT?amp=1

[donald pond] 21/5/2021 11:20

More waffle https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/dig-deep-the-mining-podcast-podcast/id1440020656?i=1000521517709

[westie50] 21/5/2021 09:54

A possible 'plus' is that Hayden will be involved this time. He hasn't appeared for a while. We know he's been tasked with securing funding and I believe he's a decent orator in front of the camera.

[mesb48] 21/5/2021 09:32

Agree it would be good for the directors to have more real money invested rather than mainly options.

But imagine if they are negotiating hard on financing, there must come a point where they are in a close period and so not allowed to transact. Does anyone know what that tipping point is between having theoretical discussions on financing to having confidential info that requires a close period?

I'm guessing too they are not allowed to say if they are or are not in a close period since that would also say something.

My point I suppose is that whilst we might like the BOD to invest to signal positive intent, it might be that they can't. Although I suspect they've had plenty of opportunities before now, and not grabbed them.

[fozzie] 21/5/2021 08:55

Agree wholeheartedly, distinct lack of real skin in the game here.

[donald pond] 21/5/2021 08:33

Not another investor meets company! The company never responded to my email suggesting that too many of these events was a waste of timeIn the end, a lot of us have invested in the company. Rather than constantly telling us how great the project is, the board need to focus on getting others to invest in it. They could start by dipping into their own accounts

[qsmeily456] 18/5/2021 09:42

Dreamer......they'll just grant themselves more as you lot are powerless in AIM you idiot 🤣💦

[puzzler2] 17/5/2021 09:46

Let's not forget that the directors have some decent options, so won't be wanting any unnecessary dilution that might cost them money.

[qsmeily456] 17/5/2021 09:45

Theres more 💩 comes out of the PR man's mouth than the UK covid rules.

They don't have anything to negotiate with.....no money no project 🤣💦💦💦8745;💥