Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[sportbilly1976] 19/10/2020 10:24

rubber,

I've not seen anything related to her selling, but as you mention it could be likely that she didn't partake in the recent placing to push her under 3%.

[rubberduck104] 19/10/2020 10:20

I have been reading up on EML and have gone through the last few months posts on this board.

Post 1786 from 16 June shows Anne Gloag held 20,691,867 shares or 3.01%

When I look at Sharepad this morning, its shows Anne Gloag -20.7m shares, -3.0157%, ex-holding

So it appears Anne Gloag has disposed of 20.7m shares since June 2020.

Perhaps the recent placing pushed her below 3% so the disposal is not notifiable.

Anyway, this won’t have helped the share price over the last couple of months.

Anyone know anything about this? Maybe I’ve got it all wrong? Maybe its insignificant?

[sportbilly1976] 19/10/2020 10:01

actual spread on 250k is 4.977 - 5.019

quote could come in 0.1p on both sides and still offer discount / premium.

clearly the MM's not wanting any business today

[cyberbub] 19/10/2020 09:30

$195m equity raise at 4p is a farcical scenario. It implies that Emmerson are a desperate penniless outfit with no assets or options to speak of, who have been forced into a corner and utterly shafted by the banks.

And yet even in that scenario the share price could be at 25p when production is underway.

[mad foetus] 19/10/2020 09:29

Shore may have clients they want to explain the upside to first?

[apfindley] 19/10/2020 08:56

Yes im unsure why they've been so Conservative, and not even mentioned probably jv or offtake funding. Or taken account that the shareprice might be much higher by the time equity is needed.If debt funding is secured first , which is the sensible thing to do, then the price will be much higher before equity raising anyway.Shore even admit that just a small adjustment to their figures and youre up at 26p already rather than the single digits they quote first. Good presentation of the project, but a bit misleading of them to talking of such vast ranges of prices whilst knowing no facts yet.Strong BUY

[sportbilly1976] 19/10/2020 08:38

Shore Cap's note is ultra conservative, almost in the extreme.

Firstly - they are factoring in a further £10mln of equity raise later this year at 4p.

One of the main issues remaining, and probably the most important from a share price and future valuation perspective is the Capex financing.

In this note, Shore Capital work on the basis of it being $425mln and of that, only 55% is arrived at via debt funding ($226mln), despite Hayden's comments at Indbaba last year of indications of $225/275mln being offered, pre-FS which enhanced the economic potential of the Project.

The remaining $195mln they are assuming (note they comment "for ease" here and they bare aware other forms could be used) are funded entirely by equity ....and again they assume this to be raise at 4p

This results in their model with 4,766k shares in issue.

Even with their sensitivities - they work on the basis that the equity portion will be no less than $150mln and that the share price of this equity will be no greater than 8p


Despite all this:

"On the basis of the above, it would seem to us that Emmerson’s shares should be trading at c.3-6x the current level, i.e. c.12-24p/share.

"Supposing it turned out that Emmerson’s equity quantum required was US$150m and that this were raised at 8p/share (rather than US$195m @ 4p/share), our FY2021F valuation would be c.82% higher at 26.7p/share

[mad foetus] 18/10/2020 19:27

I just can't help thinking some sort of deal will be done with OCP at some point. All this talk about shipping to Brazil...half the veg I buy seems to come from Morocco. I'm sure there's a huge market on their doorstep

[cyberbub] 18/10/2020 19:23

The key will be what share price we are at when the ESIA is approved and the full mining permit is issued, hopefully in around 6 months. I hope that it will be closer to 15p = $150M cap - this doesn't sound unreasonable to me for a company with such a relatively low-risk, high-return owner of a strategic, in-demand product. If so then all options become very positive for shareholders: proceed to production in 2023 with around 1.3-1.5bn shares in issue, or else sell out in 2021 for 25p+ per share.NAI

[cyberbub] 18/10/2020 18:55

The Shore capital valuation is very very conservative in my view. They apply heavy risking to arrive at 'today' target valuations like 5.6p... I mean really? They even suggest that Emmerson might have to raise $150M at just 8p. I think the chances of our management agreeing to that (=issuing 1.5bn new shares) are virtually nonexistent. They would rather sign an earn-in JV or sell the project as a whole, IMO.NAI

[trying2getrichquick] 17/10/2020 20:17

Everything has been done correctly, what an amazing management team.

[lendmeafiver] 17/10/2020 20:02

It’s a great project, I think that brokers report has been risked and risked again so they can initiate coverage then upgrade their price target as the company tick boxes and achieve milestones, it’s certainly a comprehensive document.

[trying2getrichquick] 17/10/2020 19:55

I purchased a further 500k shares on Friday. This is going to happen!!!

[trying2getrichquick] 17/10/2020 19:53

Hi Sportsbilly, you have to weirdly add a capital T -

[sportbilly1976] 17/10/2020 18:57

Full research note from Shore Cap:https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Emmerson_plc_EML_House_Stock_at_4_3p.pdf

[lendmeafiver] 17/10/2020 15:58

Agree cyber, I’m not too concerned about funding either given they have to find peanuts to develop this mine compared to sirius’s billions. No billion dollar shafts needed, just declines which will cost very little and give quick cheap access to the product, no aquifer cost and risk, straightforward geology. Current total build cost is sub $400m which I expect can be effectively reduced by phasing it so they gain access to the product first and start processing using cash flow to part fund the whole project.

One bit of newsflow on an off take and or equity partner and this will fly I expect.

[cyberbub] 17/10/2020 12:46

Yes it's all relatively straightforward technically, unlike the really difficult technical challenges at Sirius. Of course there are still plenty of financial, economic and political risks, but hopefully the technical risks are low (albeit not zero by any means).

[1airbag] 16/10/2020 19:16

Graham seems relaxed and confident. I like his style. The geology is very favourable without an aquifer on the way down to the resource. The power network looks good, the road network fab.

[apfindley] 16/10/2020 18:32

Fully agree.To draw a comparison for all.You've seen how the covid stocks have multiplied this year. Novacyt in particular which is a standout winner with its early mover revenues. For emmerson. Once in production the profits here will be of a comparable level to what nova are reporting for this busy covid period so far. The main difference being that life of mine for emmerson is a minimum of 19 years. Those covid testing revenues however won't last nova for 19 yrs, more likely 18mo to 2yr and will decline sharply once a vaccine is distributed.So nova have gone up over 100x and are valued at £650million. Why doesn't the market start valuing emmerson more appropriately.Hope readers can understand my point here.

[donald pond] 16/10/2020 18:07

It's getting silly but I feel the rerating can't be long. You get the feeling that as soon as the price is in double figures the target share price will be quickly raised.

[sportbilly1976] 16/10/2020 16:59

nice late trade through at full offer

the presentation is good...nice steady timeline of news to come over the next couple of months and also framework for news over the next 12-18 months too.

3 research bodies now with current state price targets around 3x the current share price...would have though they are recommending this to their clients to get on board

[sportbilly1976] 16/10/2020 15:54

25k at 5.084 a few more from me

the late sell knocked off the momentum a bit there...

[sportbilly1976] 16/10/2020 13:56

Presentation slides in relation to Graham's presentation to VSA Capital above:



slide 8 perfectly shows the cost benefit against their Canadian peers

[sportbilly1976] 16/10/2020 13:04

Corporate presentation: