Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 12/10/2020 15:05

Not comparing the quality of the companies so much as the actions of the herd

[rajawali] 12/10/2020 14:19

I think I'd rather have potash in the lowest part of the cost curve, close to a major port in Morocco, than a nickel play in Eastern Russia! Fair play though - maybe AMCs a good story etc and was overlooked. But better upside on EML imv.

[donald pond] 12/10/2020 14:01

AMC up 25%, just shows what can happen once the crowd catch on

[cyberbub] 12/10/2020 13:55

Yes touch wood. I bought 2M at 5p a few weeks back, the day before they announced a placing at 4.25p... at least it proves that I'm not a dodgy insider-dealer LOL... Am still happy with my purchases for the medium/long term.

[1airbag] 12/10/2020 13:12

Cyber, hopefully it does break above 5p convincingly this time, I recall we all got sucked into buying the last time.

I feel fairly confident and remain a long term holder at average of 4.75p.

GLA....!

[cyberbub] 12/10/2020 10:48

I think they would need to raise more like £60-70M for a traditional funding model. But who knows, they may well be able to reduce that with offtake prepayments or govt. grants etc.

I'd still be happy enough with a 100-150p share price :-) !

I have previously stated that I struggle to see any way that the share price will be less than 40p when in full production. That's being pessimistic in all assumptions. If things go well, then yes, 100p+

This all assumes that there are no unexpected political, technical or management/execution issues that derail the project. Investors need to be clear that there is still substantial risk on this project getting into operation.

But overall I think the risk/reward ratio here is very good, hence why I've gone in quite heavily with a 4.5p average.

GLA NAI DYOR etc

[sportbilly1976] 12/10/2020 10:40

cyber,

Agee either way...but 1bln shares - get the share price to 10-12p, 300mln shares for £30mln to fill the final capex gap from debt, JV, offtake etc

[lendmeafiver] 12/10/2020 10:35

Current market cap £35m, the market is waking up to this one.

[cyberbub] 12/10/2020 10:25

I've always said that I can't see how we would be able to limit it to 1bn shares in issue, if we have to raise the capex (ie not a JV). Even so, if we end up with 1.3bn which I think is more likely... It's still a hell of a lot more than 5p a share. :-). :-)

[sportbilly1976] 12/10/2020 10:04

Using Align's June research note, with steady state EBITDA of $307mln pa, and expanding out the shares in issue to 1bln as a result of the capex financing, with a FX of 1.3 gets us to a target share price of £2.36!

[sportbilly1976] 12/10/2020 09:48

Hayden with a couple of tweets this morning:



What investors often fail to recognise is, when in production, Potash companies trade at significant premiums. Here is the last 10yrs EV/EBITDA for Potash producers @ 10x on average. Based on Feas Stud, #EML potash proj is worth US$3bn+. Plus we have a US$500m salt project!

Replying to
@HaydenLocke5
Compare that to diversified miners, trading at 4-6 EBITDA at best. The market will wake up to this at some point. Just a matter of time. It helps that potash prices are improving too.

[the chairman elect] 12/10/2020 09:25

Very good performance again [so far] today @ EML

[sportbilly1976] 12/10/2020 08:29

momentum ocntinuing from the off, good to see...now on towards 6p

[donald pond] 12/10/2020 08:14

Good to see buys above 5p. Let's get the bid up there too, feels like the current has changed here

[donald pond] 12/10/2020 07:37

Thanks cyber! Right guys, what does this week hold for out favourite potash start up?

[parob] 12/10/2020 07:29

Tweet by Hayden just now:Ag commodities on fire at the moment, key crops up 12% to 25% in the last 3 mths. The nxt to go will be the inputs to grow them. #potash is key. While everyone is focused on gold there are bull market trends appearing in other commodities which present great value. #emlhTTps://twitter.com/haydenlocke5/status/1315539530280247297?s=21

[cyberbub] 10/10/2020 12:59

Donald, dropped you a private message.

[lendmeafiver] 09/10/2020 18:31

Yep, that’s what I was referring to, thanks Chairman.

[the chairman elect] 09/10/2020 17:57

Zak Mir charts show a clear upwards channel @ EML towards 7p

[lendmeafiver] 09/10/2020 17:54

Was talk of next target 7p

[donald pond] 09/10/2020 16:43

Nice boom age, and here's your evening listening...it is up on Apple but may be a while before its on all servers - don't ask me!

[cyberbub] 09/10/2020 16:40

I'm no chartist but I could see 6p going before the end of the month IMHO. Especially if supported by concrete news eg ESIA nearing completion etc.GLA

[sportbilly1976] 09/10/2020 16:37

late 200k paying over too

all set for a 5p+ week next week!

[excellance] 09/10/2020 16:28

and back to 5p again