Electrocomponents Share Discussion Threads

[studhaves] 20/6/2008 15:52

I think I might have got it the wrong way too, but it depends on what those 2 5 million trades were.

[jp1979] 20/6/2008 15:21

I think you might have that the wrong way
13 mill sells
2 mill buys!

not sure why this tho still>?...

[studhaves] 20/6/2008 14:55

Just to further that, if you look at the history the buys outnumber the sells by an enormous margin today.

[studhaves] 20/6/2008 14:54

I get a sneaky feeling that the price is being held down & that they will go up after ex divi.

Wonder who might benefit from that?

[royaloak] 20/6/2008 14:48

I have often bought ECM in the past just before xdiv, to pick up an hefty premium for income, then sell at a loss to use in tax planning. Looks like I will be able to do so again. However, I remember looking at the results and I thought they were reasonable, very surprised by this drop.

[studhaves] 20/6/2008 13:46

I thought they were sells personally, though they seem to show up as buys, or maybe one of each.

[highlander2] 20/6/2008 13:29

Were those two 5m trades buys or sells!! Lack of
major price drop and imminent divi would suggest
that they were buys.

Tough call judging by the prices at that time.
Or were these delayed prices??

[studhaves] 20/6/2008 12:25

The annual report shows just what an excelent company this is.

People are missing a fantastic opportunity here!!!

[highlander2] 19/6/2008 08:19

Anybody buying in at £1.60 or less will be getting
an 11% plus return!! Wish it was me!!

[jp1979] 18/6/2008 22:24

why is this falling like a rock??? looking at the divi next week at 8%.... but at the rate its falling it seems a bad bet.....

looking at current sales I cant find out why its dropped so much?

[highlander2] 13/6/2008 15:49

Looks like the slow climb back up is in progress.

Divi X-date arround 26th/27th June. Don't believe
that it will require all this time to match PFL price!!

[studhaves] 12/6/2008 10:24

I hold shares in both, I think ECM have been oversold at this point.

[highlander2] 10/6/2008 15:56

j66 - Thanks for the info. On the above forecasts
brokers don't expect PFL to achieve ECM profits for
some years (if ever). Both good businesses.

The ECM board expect the BIG divi to continue next year
as well. Interim at 5.80 and final at 12.60 is worth
buying for!!

The current price drop has absorbed all my divi and
more; but I can wait for the price to rise.

Keep the faith!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jhan66] 10/6/2008 11:55

Thanks for the snapshot Highlander2. I can add to that picture with comparison forecasts. ECM first...
2009 2010
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Broker Name With... 28-05-08 NEUT 107.10 16.40 18.37 114.75 17.54 11.40
Investec Securities 06-06-08 SELL 96.04 14.79 18.40 96.54 14.87 11.00
Panmure Gordon 30-05-08 SELL 113.35 15.25 11.00 115.92 15.57 11.00
Charles Stanley ... 28-05-08 ACCU 106.00 16.00 11.00 116.00 18.00 12.00
Shore Capital 02-06-08 HOLD 100.00 15.50 11.00 105.70 16.60 11.00
Evolution Securi... 30-05-08 BUY 105.10 16.10 11.00 115.40 17.70 11.50
Collins Stewart 28-05-08 BUY 104.60 16.00 110.90 17.00
ABN AMRO 14-02-08 ADD 103.73 15.94 18.40
Seymour Pierce 14-03-08 HOLD 107.70 17.10 18.80
Kaupthing Singer... 15-02-08 BUY 106.10 16.10 12.10
2009 2010
Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Consensus Consensus 105.76 16.00 11.10 113.12 17.21 11.18
Growth (%) 7.67 7.56
Standard Deviation (p) 0.60 1.08
PE Prospective (x) 9.83 9.14

PFL.......
Detailed Broker Forecasts 2009 2010
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Broker Name With... 06-06-08 NEUT 81.63 14.65 9.77 82.17 15.74 10.49
Investec Securities 06-06-08 SELL 75.50 14.45 9.75 80.70 15.42 10.41
Panmure Gordon 06-06-08 HOLD 87.47 14.85 9.70 90.36 15.51 10.50
Seymour Pierce 05-06-08 BUY 79.20 14.80
Shore Capital 19-05-08 SELL 77.00 14.90 9.40 82.00 15.80 9.70
ABN AMRO 25-04-08 BUY 74.94 14.23 9.50 80.00 15.22 9.80
Kaupthing Singer... 26-03-08 FAIR 76.90 14.30 9.50 80.30 15.20 9.80
2009 2010
Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Consensus Consensus 78.16 14.69 9.63 81.12 15.56 10.25
Growth (%) 11.59 5.92
Standard Deviation (p) 0.25 0.23
PE Prospective (x) 12.22 11.54

Hope you can untangle it. PFL forecasting higher growth, ECM paying out more.

I'd pick ECM & take the big divi this month. Less demanding pe etc.

[studhaves] 09/6/2008 17:12

They are pretty much the same market cap, but I think PFL seem to be showing strong growth, particularly in other countries.

Good though that both are doing well in the current climate, more than can be said for most.

[highlander2] 09/6/2008 15:54

Turnover - ECM 923m : PFL - 744

Profit - ECM 95m : PFL - 71m

Net Debt - ECM 375m : PFL - 416m

PE - ECM 10.61: PFL - 17.95

Divi - ECM 18.40: PFL - 9.20

SP - ECM 157p : PFL - 180p

Potential - anyones guess, but both
should be worth about the same at
present.

[studhaves] 09/6/2008 12:57

I'd have a look at PFL too. ECM has always been the leader in this market, but PFL have caught them up & look set to overtake, the growth in new markets like China & India is phenomenal, & I think thats where PFL can accelerate away.

ECM is still a good company though, I just think PFL has the upper hand at this point in time.

[rochdale] 06/6/2008 11:46

just bought a few more - not many but think the longer term prospects are good - will tuck away for a good year or two

[highlander2] 04/6/2008 15:59

For those who bought in a week ago, the divi
is all but gone. Hopefully the price will claw
this back over the next two weeks.

Internationally, sales increasing substantially.
Uk is 40% approx at present but not the main
company focus for next five years. E-trading and
Europe bigger markets with the member states
numbers increasing.

Price sitting at about the same level before last
bounce to over £2.00.

[loryd] 04/6/2008 13:59

Presumably the price is going down because people expect things to get worse (and they aren't willing to take the long-term perspective).

Taking that longer-term perspective, there is no doubt that Electrocomponents have a strong market position. The downside is that their strongest market is the UK where the long-term market looks difficult. True, there is real potential in Asia but margins are lower as they are across the International businesses. Still, their results presentation suggested much to go for.

Premier Farnell are out with their update tomorrow. Farnell's reputation seems higher - anyone know why? Presumably the two will get together one day to try and crush the competition.

[rochdale] 04/6/2008 08:11

lets hope so highlander - waiting to top up here

[rochdale] 28/5/2008 13:54

11.5% is fine by me


Evolution Securities said the results were better than expected. "Given the
cash flow and financial strength of the company, future special dividends are
likely. This looks both a sensible and practical solution to the dividend cover
question that has undermined the share price recently," the broker said in an
investment note.

It pointed out that with the inclusion of the special dividend the shares
were yielding 11.5 per cent. It rates the shares as a 'buy' with a target price
of 240 pence.

[rochdale] 28/5/2008 08:21

seems reasonable - maybe the start of a move up over time

[eithin] 28/5/2008 08:04

Electrocomponents final div unchanged at 18.4 pence; FY pretax up 9 pct




LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Electronic and industrial distributor
Electrocomponents Plc. said it has maintained its final dividend at 18.4 pence a
share in line with its prior commitment and reported a 9 percent increase in its
full-year reported pretax profit on a 12 percent rise in its headline pretax
profit for the period.
The company posted a pretax profit of 95.4 million pounds for the year to
March 31, 2008, from a restated pretax profit of 87.2 million pounds earlier.
Headline pretax profit rose to 96.4 million pounds for the year from 86.4
million pounds reported a year ago.
Revenue rose to 924.8 million pounds from 877.5 million pounds.
Turning to current trading, the group said its revenue grew at around 2
percent year on year in the first eight weeks of the new financial year with
international revenue up by about 5 percent and the UK down by around 2 percent.

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