Eleco Public Share Discussion Threads

[techtrader5] 11/6/2018 18:42

Crikes I'd lost track of this one I think the last time they changed the name
So surprised to see this POS still going let alone back to where it was ten yrs ago, must be due yet another crash.
Bet holders from yrs back won't have seen a return and may never get their money back. With a mkt cap 70m With its track record that is just craaaazy!
So many good techs why would anyone risk money in this 💩

[smithie6] 11/6/2018 10:36

hmmmm

the share I like is up 5% while the share that I have recently criticised its receivables being 50% of 1 year's turnover, & its jump in sales in 2017 apparently not being paid for (at all !), is down 5%.


(while ELCO had an increase in turnover & had no change in receivables, ie. 'stuff' was paid for. 👍)

the power of my pen or just co incidence ?!

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 23:11

deleted since off thread

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 21:15

Smithie - thanks again I will have a look.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 20:51

deleted since mostly off thread

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 20:07

allstar

I've expanded my SPE vs ELCO post above. post 575

assuming my numbers are correct (SPE nos are from their accounts via their website)

SPE EPS has grown 27% from 2016 to 2017 while at ELCO it has grown 47% (see post 575)

& ELCO is expected to go from 2.5p to >= 3.5p in 2018 & substantial increase in PBT in first 4 months

+40% !

(& 47% the year before !)

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 19:23

ah..thanks 😀

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 18:32

Smithie - thanks. Now that is a really useful comparison.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 16:33

post with concerns about SPE accounts and very high receivables deleted
since mostly off thread and I dont want to clog up this msg forum
can read on SPE msg brd.

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 15:18

Smithie - I think you will find that most understand the risks and they may even have bought much lower. ALT is high risk due to high PE and hope value - this is obvious and does nothing to highlight the value of ELCO. Indeed the ALT PE alone would make many many companies look very cheap!

P.S. If you have time a comparison against SPE would be welcome.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 15:11

(stepping back briefly to compare ALT & ELCO

in 2017 ALT ate 1M pnds (before any acquisition; ref the accounts) & hence imo it did a cash raise in order to survive !! ( yet is valued at 8 x turnover !)

while ELCO is currently generating ~3M cash per year (ref. data for 1st 4 months of 2018)

yet most PIs holding ALT shares probably dont realise that ALT ate money last year...& are taken in by the spiel from the co.

not my fault if ppl cant operate a calculator or are too lazy to read accounts.)

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 15:02

The issue is that the comparisons were pointless. OPTI don't aren't even a software company.

But yes enough of that. I think we all get the point.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 15:00

ELCO ( 👏👏👏)

where is the new development dir. from ?

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 14:57

...getting boring..
ALT says it is a profitable co....so it seems reasonable to compare ALT & ELCO shares.

---

we have to agree that we disagree...

back to ELCO topics now

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 14:53

That's exactly the point why compare ELCO to loss making companies? My issue is that it is a poor comparison. Why not choose similar companies and then you may have some valid points.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 14:32

btw
to calculate a PEG ratio a co. needs to report a profit & profit growth
(& PEG was part I think of the Zulu selection idea from Jim Slater I think, which requires things like a record of growth, solid accounts, no debt pile

& cos. like ALT, OPTI dont meet those reqts.
OPTI is heavily loss making.
& ALT is priced (ref advfn fin summary) at 8 x turnover per share !. a P/E of 352 !....while LFL turnover was down 7% !, either the acquisition (which cost only 0.8M, & ALT cap. value is ~50M) making 1/3rd of the turnover is now going to rocket its turnover & profit (inferring its sellers were complete incompetent idiots in selling it for a fraction of its real value !; very unlikely !) & save the share price or the share price is toast) ALT humungus bargepole job imho at 90p)
(the PEG number for ALT based on previous EPS of 2016=0.15p & 2017=0.24p , with share price of 90p, must be terrible !

(the share prices of ALT & ELCO are almost identical. @ ~ 88p
ELCO 2017 EPS 2.3p
ALT 2017 EPS 0.24p (10% of the ELCO EPS !)

...ALT shares look way way overpriced imo..but good luck to any holders..each person to their own views

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 14:19

ah..you meant PEG ratios..
I understand your point

but
do you see my point ?

(incl. that anyone that believes a predictn of EPS going x8, for a co. with only 6M of turnover which is shrinking, yet a cap. value around 50M & which has done a recent cash raise & got a new MD who only spends 7k pnds on buying shares......is taking a wild punt where the chance of making money is phps 1% vs 99% chance of losing imo...if the MD believed that EPS was going x8 then they wldnt buy just a pathetic 7k pnds worth, imo.
If ALT had a cap. value of 4M & turnover of 6M & chance of a turnaround it might be interesting but with 50M cap. value it looks like EPS x8 success is already fully included in the price, so if it only achieves x4 (!!) the share price might fall !

but if you like ALT (& its falling LFL turnover) then fair enough, every person has their own preferences...

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 12:32

Ok let me put it another way. Compare the above shares PEG ratios and then you have a fairer comparison. Now whether or not the shares will meet those targets is a completely different matter.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 12:12

..I disagree

I think the point I made is easy to see & grasp

that Opti with 200k turnover & 60M cap. value is very highly valued & hence there is a super risk of losing a lot of money with the shares

the same for ALT

but that for ELCO that
-the track record of growth is there to see & - -the price of the shares is much more reasonable

--

your point is that ALT will produce that hoped for 800% of EPS growth & hence it is justified to be very highly valued even though the organic turnover FELL last year. I see your point but I disagree, for the reasons I posted before. Each to own view, no problem.

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 10:36

That was based on the legacy business. The current share price is all about the new business going forwards. I am not saying it will be successful or that ELCO is not a safer bet - just highlighting that such basic analysis without an understanding of the factors driving the share price of companies used as a basis for comparison can be misleading.

[smithie6] 07/6/2018 10:31

sure markets look forward

but if you say that predictions are for ALT to increase EPS by x 8

when the same co. produced a fall in organic or LFL turnover last year !!

& had a turnover of around only 6M

Sorry, but I have to question that prediction.

ELCO has stated that PBT in first 4 months is significantly up. Have ALT stated the same or perhaps stated that have doubled profits and hence 'comfortable' that will achieve x8 (!!). I doubt it. (the text from ALT chairman is just blatant pumping imo & imo that's a wildly waving red flag !) (& how many shares does the ALT MD own ? yep just a measly 8000 !, 8000 !)
but I hope it works out for you with ALT shares.

[allstar4eva] 07/6/2018 09:57

Smithie those metrics above are very basic and do not take account for the potential of the businesses. Markets look forward and share prices are based on those future expectations. ALT for example are forecast to grow eps by over 800%! Now they may not achieve that but it serves to indicate why the share price is where it is.