Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 02/11/2020 14:03

Btgman - I agree with you on the fundamental front. This is indeed a very sound business (I take it you take a longer term approach which is of course fine but is entirely different from my own game). Whilst the underlying story is great, the share price is severely overextended (statistically), by my own calculations. As this is a game of odds, I have a particular way to play it. Pros and cons to everything of course but one sticks with one's rules. I have still 2/3 of my original position on but if we have another violent eruption North in very quick order (amen to that I hear you say) then I will probably sell it all and patiently wait for the next next point of reentry. Thanks and good luck - let's hope we reach that magical 100 quote soon!

[btgman] 02/11/2020 13:23

Never bad to take a profit Tongosti. However, with the exponential growth worldwide regards testing I have a view that EKF has a very long way to go. I am intrigued to hear the trading update and the out look for 2021 has to be even stronger. This could still double and some in quick time from here I am still of a view of EPS of 5p plus for y.e 31.12.20 at which point it looks cheap with underlying asset position and all the testing. What is also apparent if you search EKF and key last hour amazing how many time it comes up related to other products

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[tongosti] 02/11/2020 12:55

After an amazing run over the last couple of weeks decided to to slice and sell a third into current strength.

[eeza] 02/11/2020 10:08

Spread was 74 vs 77 when I posted.

[tongosti] 02/11/2020 10:03

Don't think so - spreads are as tight as they've been for a good few days. You have a lot of demand today as well as volumes indicate. Past 85, 100p is very probably next. Onwards and upwards EKF!

[eeza] 02/11/2020 09:07

MM's opened the spread to try to damp the buying.

[tongosti] 02/11/2020 09:06

Another great start of the day. About +25% in less than two weeks. In the context of wider markets this is an absolute delight.

[wan] 01/11/2020 12:13

Unfortunately the dynamics of the pandemic have obviously changed, so one has to ask has this also influenced where and particularly when new rapid tests are deployed? I think it has!

By my estimates the UK government has purchased circa 10m of Abbotts PANBIO™ COVID-19 Ag RAPID TEST DEVICE that I highlighted in post 758. That's quite a lot more, in terms of units, than some of the other tests that have been ordered (at a price of around £4 per unit, see further below).


But overall, the range and availability of tests are expanding rapidly, and other new tests, including rapid test (preferably domestically manufactured), and the required ramp in manufacturing capacity are going to be required beyond the current lockdown and 'first wave' of mass UK testing!

I also highlighted in post 758 and 759 that low cost settings and low cost markets can be one of the same in terms of a cheap point of care device. EKF have already stated that the ATM product aimed at low cost markets expected Q4, and obviously we are in Q4. But as I mention above, and as evidenced here in the UK, the dynamics have changed with cheap lateral flow tests also being deployed (and indeed required) in developed markets!

Back to low-cost setting/markets. The following was what originally caught my attention in terms of being particularly interested in low cost tests and in particular Abbotts PANBIO test, and why it's possible for investors to feel somewhat better from benefitting from the pandemic (hopefully, one way or another, that will include investors in EKF). The initial roll-out of the tests were scheduled for October. It's a very worthy read for all investors -

Global partnership to make available 120 million affordable, quality COVID-19 rapid tests for low- and middle-income countries
28 September 2020


I think the reason Abbotts PANBIO test has been somewhat off the radar, is that it was developed/manufactured by their German subsidiary - Abbott Rapid Diagnostics Jena GmbH (which might have originally been part of Alere). As up until very recently it had not made Abbotts main news, and Abbott's main site only listed one antigen test, and that wasn't PANBIO!

After completion of the development stage, the site oversees the transfer to mass production; the products are marketed through the global sales network of the Abbott group.


Obviously, we don't yet know where the new ATM product will be deployed (apart from low-cost markets), but the dynamics are rapidly changing, and I stand by my previous view that ATM potentially has wide applicability across a range of antigen tests, and potentially specific utility in enabling antigen testing (for which interest in and global deployment is exploding).

And to repeat an important point (none of us, to my knowledge, are experts!) - Please conduct your own research when making investment decisions, as the originator, or the threads contributors, could be either wrong or inaccurate.

[wan] 31/10/2020 20:03

Quick update -

Gary Dowthwaite
Special Projects Coordinator at EKF Diagnostics
11 hours ago
It all starts with the pooled sample.

Luke Daum
Chief Scientific Officer and Executive VP at Longhorn Vaccines and Diagnostics
17m

Gary, you're correct. Incidentally, the clinical specimens used in this small study were derived from EKF staff-critical personnel-that we at Longhorn are committed to ensuring remain healthy as we all work in collaboration to maintain PrimeStore MTM supply chains worldwide. Longhorn/EKF synergy in the fight against Covid19.

[supernumerary] 31/10/2020 20:03

Yippee!!!

Oops, sorry, shamefaced emoji...

[wan] 31/10/2020 19:57

Sobering forecasts from the PM tonight!

Hence we will be in lockdown again, but with news that the government is rolling out millions of new rapid testing technologies (including LAMP and lateral flow tests) across the entire UK, which will include testing whole towns and possibly whole cities, helping to provide at least some hope for Christmas and beyond (I am hopeful that such testing will make a difference).

[wan] 31/10/2020 09:41

Others are also starting to confirm that testing will be required for longer, and perhaps a lot longer, and that the level/array of tests required will increase too -


30th October 2020
Quidel Q3 revenue soars 276% as COVID-19 tailwinds forecast into 2022

CEO Doug Bryant reiterated to investors that Quidel expects $800 million or more in revenue in the fourth quarter as the U.S. faces the prospect of a third wave of COVID-19 infections. Looking ahead, Bryant said the level of tests required for the ongoing pandemic will "persist well beyond 2021" and perhaps later.


"We're certainly being asked by a number of folks, including the government to ramp up production to really high levels. And so I think it's the expectation that this is going to persist well beyond 2021, whether it's 2022, 2023, I couldn't say at this stage. But at this point, it feels to me like this will not abate in terms of the level of tests required certainly until sometime in 2022 and beyond," Bryant told investors.
Full story -

[wan] 31/10/2020 08:04

Further developments -

16hrs ago
Looking forward to publishing the amazing results of the PrimeStore MTM and #Roche Cobas Liat SARS CoV-2/Influenza clinical study. PrimeStore MTM adds healthcare worker safety to this highly sensitive 20 minute PCR test. A game changer for doctors offices, and standalone clinics.

[wan] 31/10/2020 08:02

Further PrimeStore MTM attributes confirmed -

17hrs ago
SARS-CoV-2 testing from 'pooled' clinical NP swabs collected in PrimeStore Molecular Transport Medium increases throughput and reduces cost, consumables, and precious time! Example below from "real world" (not contrived!) clinical samples and tested using CDC qPCR and the Roche Liat Instrument. Contact Dr. Daum at [phone] to discuss the slide below. EKF Diagnostics Thermo Fisher Scientific


16hrs ago
Congratulations Luke on the #PrimeStore MTM pooling results and on the Roche and Thermo platforms!


Pooled samples = very large volumes -

New SARS-CoV-2 Study: Pooling samples collected in PrimeStore MTM is ideal for testing large populations such as employees and students with a significant reduction in infrastructure and cost. Pooling samples requires small amounts of each sample to be combined into a new tube, PrimeStore MTM allows the process to occur on the bench top. Samples in VTM/Saline are still considered infectious and must be transferred in a biological safety cabinet, significantly slowing down the work flow.

Longhorn will provide 50 tube preform racks to laboratories that receive PrimeStore MTM in preform tubes from FEMA allocations.

[tongosti] 30/10/2020 17:01

What a week for this stock eh. Happy Friday all

[cambridgedon] 30/10/2020 13:55

Thanks Wan. Looks about right Approx 80% held by directors and II.
CD

[wan] 30/10/2020 13:26

Click significant shareholders and Directors' shareholdings -

[cambridgedon] 30/10/2020 13:17

I've been looking at major shareholders/Director holdings. Obviously, a share tightly held by a few large institutions and Directors should perform well when there's buying pressure. Not sure how accurate my source is (Sharescope) but this is what it shows:
North Atlantic Smaller Cos 30%
Cannacord 6.1
Chelverton Asset Man 3.4
Cristopher Mills 30
Julian Barnes 0.41
Richard Evans 0.039
Stock Invest 3.4
W Pippin 3.6
Ron Zwaniger (Not shown but thought he was a big holder way back.)
Total 78% approx.
Does anyone have a source to check this?

CD

[mirandaj] 30/10/2020 12:02

wan,
If you have not seen from this angle - good to see:

[wan] 30/10/2020 10:38

Just a couple of quick points.

It is becoming quite evident, as a consequence of the current pandemic, that diagnostic testing will continue to play a key role in terms of identifying and preventing infections beyond the current coronavirus pandemic. In the UK and indeed elsewhere, significant diagnostic industries will either be built from scratch, or at the very least improved and upgraded in preparing for future pandemics. EKF and their partners are well placed to take part/assist and benefit from that process.

It should not be overlooked that EKF's core business was already benefitting from growth initiatives prior to the effects of the pandemic, and subsequently investors were due to benefit from a maiden dividend anyway!

Staying with the core business, and another product possibly positively affected by the demand in COVID-19 testing -
One of the items that is commonly used in clinical laboratories running PCR testing is a microfuge, and is therefore likely to have also seen increased demand. EKF's Micro 12 with a small footprint is ideal where space is at a premium and would therefore enable more units to be installed, which might be particularly desirable. But in any regard, the increase in new labs and lab space means large demand in lab equipment -

[marvelman] 30/10/2020 09:46

One of those investments where it is about sit, watch and relax....not many of those about in todays markets

[diviincomesearch] 30/10/2020 09:21

Certainly proving to be a good insurance stock whilst the rest of the economy is going down the toilet. Easy to understand storage mechanism getting traction on orders.

If the testing regime continues for another 18-24 months at similar volumes then it lessens the risk of a one time boost to earnings.

Look forward to the November earnings update!

[btgman] 30/10/2020 08:44

Re £1 next year I have in my mind that EPS to 31.12.20 will be in the order of 5p per share and given there underlying cash position investment in Trellus Renx and Verici you could argue £1 is very cheap given the likely exponential growth next year. Trading update early November exciting time

AIMHO
GLA
BTG