Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 06/10/2021 07:39

Folks believe what they want to believe. Wan - surprise as and become unpredictable for once:)

[wan] 06/10/2021 06:16

As James said further above, it was expected and was for the reason previously explained. And we were also told the reduction is not a burning issue as such.

Therefore and from my perspective as an investor, it is notable that the demand is there. Put another way, we have an expected but patient seller and relatively strong demand. So I don't see the shares falling back much, as the same buyers can now also pick up the shares on the resulting dip at a discount.

So, perhaps it's worth recalling Singer's headlines to its research note on EKF -

'EKF recently unveiled a strategy for driving growth in the business over the next few years. It will be led by a refreshed executive management team and board, building on renewed strength in the core business and opportunities in developing wider contract development and manufacturing activities. Accretive bolt-on acquisitions will also be considered, all funded by the current strong net cash position of the group. Overall, the ambition is to deliver sustainable double-digit EBITDA growth into the medium term. This note takes a detailed look at the growth drivers and opportunities now in prospect. In addition to introducing conservative formal FY22 & FY23 estimates for the first time, we also look at a range of potential scenarios, one of which shows how EBITDA could reach £45.9m by FY24. Putting that on a multiple of 13- 15x implies a potential Enterprise Value of £597-688m, against a current EV of £314m. Successful delivery should therefore lead to material value creation.'

Not to mention that there is apparently another investment and spinout in the wings.

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 16:11

I see fresh waves of selling about to come mg's way so guess he's happy?One wonders why cm sold at the high? Will he do the same foi NJF forward? Like I said earlier the price he has sold at is quite smth.

[james188] 05/10/2021 15:54

It has been well known for ages that Christopher Mills needs to reduce his holdings in EKF, as they constitute a disproportionately large part of the fund holdings. Further disposals are bound to follow and all shareholders are aware (or should be aware) of that.

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 15:35

And here we go - director's money bailing out.

it's not the no of shares but rather the price they have sold out at which speaks a fair bit about their expectations.

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 13:22

Agreed most market makers wouldn't be able to trade if their lives would depend on it (were it not for the order flow). Re PI's - I would disagree. Even though it's their money on the line 9/10 just doesn't cut it (not for lack of iq per se but rather knowledge of the game). Hence the passive trackers have had tremendous growth over the years. Otherwise why bother?Good luck pal.

[sirshagalot] 05/10/2021 13:13

Market makers never play ball its fixed, you have to use experience on how to deal with their games.
Trust your judgment and experience it seems to work you have made good calls, stand back from it a bit and see the bigger picture.
Pi,s are the real clever ones for they use own money, unlike some larger city traders who have information that we can only dream of and salary to match.
IF they were as good as they say they are then why do they not go it ALONE!

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 13:05

Can't disagree with most of your comments. Yes I do look into things daily out of necessity rather than choice. As one of the best ever in this business used to say ... one needs to have a long term horizon for reaping the gains but a very short one for risk.

[sirshagalot] 05/10/2021 12:36

The old saying "let the trend be your friend" is good advice for long term gains.
The share price has performed well in last 2 years, plus spin offs.
Perhaps tong is a bit sensitive on daily activity of charts, i was like that once many many years ago during dot com boom.
Current levels around 84p is about right and may touch late 70,s from time to time.
Market makers are there to bend and twist the arms of holders and sellers alike to make a market, i had a brother like that you get used to it you know.
But then again one could be wrong with the above Exciting isn't it!.

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 10:49

Fact 3. The share price is the ultimate fundamental (as it represents the equilibrium of demand and supply for shares). Regardless what a few retail players think (fundamentals are), the market is clearly telling you there is zero buying power to push the share price up (aka not enough buyers buying into wan's thesis). 12 months and counting - why? This is the ultimate question that matters in this game and I never see it raised on the board:)Consequently, either the entire market is wrong or wan and co of the world are. Beeen long enough in this business to know that the market only giveth (and taketh). No disrespect to anyone honestly (as some of you know I just bailed out of a long position with a minor loss on here) - all I am saying is wake up and smell the coffee if the market doesn't play ball to one's particular thesis. Usually there is a reason behind that. Ps. If there is another b/o I will be willing to try again but until then I'd rather respect Mr Market as I am perfectly aware I shouldn't play macho with him.

[wan] 05/10/2021 10:38

Fwiw, I think the pandemic has acted as an accelerant in terms of the evolution of the diagnostic industry. This rapid evolution is not limited to just the diagnostic industry players themselves, with patients and health consumers seeking to move away from traditional settings such as clinics and hospital towards the home and/or telehealth settings.

In this regard, I strongly believe that EKF's recent acquisition is indeed part of this evolution towards a 'much' wider offering in terms of testing and screening and the manufacture of a wide range of testing kits that will help make care more accessible, thus positioning EKF as a player in this evolution by becoming a single provider able to encompass all products and services from 'sample-to-result'. Indeed as EKF's CEO, Mike Salter's commented -

Mike Salter, President of EKF Diagnostics' Americas and Chief Executive Officer Designate of EKF, commented: "We are delighted to have agreed terms for the acquisition of ADL Health and believe this represents a highly attractive and earnings accretive transaction. Strategically this is an excellent move for us as it positions EKF as a leading provider of diagnostic products and services, including a testing offering that our industry partners have been looking for us to provide."

"The ability to offer testing for a wide range of diseases, combined with our existing point-of-care device, reagent, sample collection, kitting and manufacturing services, positions us as a single provider able to encompass all products and services from 'sample-to-result'."

So, test kit manufacturing addressing a far wider spectrum of disease is only one element, and although it's obviously an initial phase, the lab acquisition is obviously ready-to-go! Cue also, Renalytix, Verici and Trellus Health, and EKF's industry partners.

Clearly there is more yet to be done in terms of delivery of the growth strategy (and reported accordingly), but it's also clear that EKF is not suffering from inertia! And it's up to investors to read into this early phase of EKF's growth strategy, and indeed the impact from the pandemic on the evolution of diagnostic testing, as they see fit.

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 10:36

Fact 1. Ekf struggled since the Pfizer vaccine news came out last Nov. Stock topped out 12 months ago. Goes to show that the market has discounted all covid related benefits to the business. Fact 2. When the news is bullish but the share price goes the other way, it is (always has been) an ominous sign foe those willing to listen.

[melody9999] 05/10/2021 10:12

Actually I think the comment before was EKF's inability to break through 80p. I have no doubt there will be future comment about the struggle to get through 90p. Goodness knows the fight we will have at 100p!

My strategy is to continue to hold EKF and continue to filter TONG

[jacks13] 05/10/2021 10:04

People who follow squiggly lines obsess about such things. It's normal.

[cambridgedon] 05/10/2021 09:24

Whist I don't support every utterance from Tongosti (his Mr Market obsession does get a little wearing) I think he does have a point about EKF's inability to break above 85
given the 100% positive newsflow and results. Perhaps the market is concerned that the Covid-driven testing bonanza won't be there forever and that the core business will take some years to fill the void?
CD

[melody9999] 05/10/2021 09:23

Obviously Luke's move from Longhorn was agreed by both companies. You don't poach people from one of your key customers. But can anyone give me an insight as to why this might have happened now - what is the bogger agenda behind this appointment wrt EKF and Longhorn?

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 08:55

What an insightful comment re a lifeless stock.

[masurenguy] 05/10/2021 08:50

What nonsense this troll continues to spout. I'm up 45% over the past 14 months here plus a 3.8% dividend yield during that time. I have other stocks that have performed better and some that have performed worse. I'm happy with the performance here to date, particularly whilst during that period the idiotic tongosti troll has just completely wasted his time sniping from the sidelines and making zilch !

[tongosti] 05/10/2021 08:33

Breakout firmly cancelled folks. Oops.

Question is: if this stock produced absolutely nothing during a wider bull market over the last 12 months, what can it do if markets turn firmly south? Well, we do know the answer to this one don’t we (not asking you mg - i am aware you have the ability to stay in all the way south)?!

[tongosti] 01/10/2021 14:05

Isn't that exactly the same message the market has been telling you folks for 12 months now? Lol

[sirshagalot] 01/10/2021 13:59

Agrees too much focus on short term covid solutions.

[wan] 01/10/2021 13:56

JESREDBIRD...All points of view/opinion are welcome. EKF make it quite clear in my view (beyond revealing sensitive plans/information etc) -

"While the growth of ADL Health has been accelerated by revenue from COVID testing, its wider testing offer, including current and planned capabilities, is considered by the EKF Board to provide an attractive platform to both complement and broaden the Group’s existing diagnostics capabilities."

On the one hand you are saying you are not impressed about expanding lab capacity, and on the other you then say you are interested in their roadmap to replace COVID-19, which would obviously involve expansion of what they currently offer.

However, I am sure that EKF's diagnostic pipeline will no doubt make for interesting reading! So, yes a key point is what EKF are 'planning' for and there are pointers within the release and indeed EKF's growth strategy. Not to mention that in an answer to one of my questions, a potential screening test for IBD, which as the growth strategy indicates, a CLIA lab for diagnostics is identified as one of the growth areas in terms of complementary earnings-enhancing acquisitions with key strategic value to the core business, for the following reasons -

CLIA lab for diagnostic tests
– Further area of partnership with global private sector partner
– Potential to link to Trellus, Renalytix and Verici
– Move into $4bn US diagnostic testing market which has forecast CAGR of 13% from 2021 to 2027

And indeed, in the EKF/ADL release it also states other important factors, cue a 'broader range of healthcare applications' and a testing offering that our industry 'partners' have been looking for us to provide -

'In addition, ADL Health is expanding its range of testing capabilities across a broader suite of healthcare applications. Under EKF’s ownership, further investment is anticipated to support the deployment of additional equipment and a testing offering that our industry partners have been looking for us to provide

Mike Salter - "Strategically this is an excellent move for us as it positions EKF as a leading provider of diagnostic products and services, including a testing offering that our industry partners have been looking for us to provide."

The above aside, I note a recent comment in reaction to the EKF's ADL acquisition:

Chris Helm, Executive Vice President Global Business Development at Longhorn Vaccines and Diagnostics
"Longhorn Vaccines and Diagnostics looks forward to continuing supplying PrimeStore MTM and ATM to ADL Health via our relationship with EKF Diagnostics. Congratulations to Mike and team"

I was also pleased to note that ADL appears to have been using ATM, which is currently for 'research use only'.