Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[saucepan] 01/4/2021 19:08

What is the evidence, please, for assuming/knowing the "partner from the private sector" is in fact Amazon? Is this just an educated guess or is it more than that?

[cisk] 01/4/2021 18:56

jacks13, it's a question I asked myself whether Amazon is a long term friend or foe... and only time will tell us. With time and money most things are replicable.

However I do believe that Amazon have large ambitions in healthcare and it's true it's an industry (at least in the US) that is ripe for consolidation and efficiency. Unless you've experienced it, it really is something else - the amount of paperwork and companies involved is mind boggling. So I definitely see more announcements in the coming months.

I did ask Julian Baines if they had received informal approaches - obviously I know he couldn't disclose anything market sensitive, what I was really asking is do they regularly receive informal expressions of interest. I suspect they do...

And it really depends on what Chris Mills will accept as a buy-out price, owning 29.9% of the company. I seem to remember he bought in around 10-15p (could be wrong) and I suspect that he would be looking for a multiple of 10-15 times, so maybe an offer price of at least 100p, probably closer to 150-200p.

I did think someone like Charles River Labs would be an excellent fit for EKF, size wise EKF would be easily digestible.

But this is all speculation, here and now I feel that the if anything this announcement has been downplayed and it really is transformational. I expect the other areas of the business to recover rapidly and look forward to further market updates as and when.

[wan] 01/4/2021 18:49

Staying with a digital health theme -

An interesting new hire over at Trellus Health -

Sherese Fralin, MSN, FNP-C
Vice President, Clinical Operations

Building and managing regional clinical teams in order to provide precision based and resilience driven care for patients with chronic diseases -



And as highlighted recently, Dan Mahony Co-Head Healthcare, Polar Capital Partners and Chris Mills founder of Harwood Capital Management are now listed as directors -

[wan] 01/4/2021 18:40

Jack13...Obviously, my reply is just food for thought atm, as neither of us ultimately know how it will pan out, but clearly EKF are sure it will generate significant revenues this year and beyond.

[wan] 01/4/2021 15:55

Jacks13...The following possibly provides some useful insight -

12 Jan, 2021

Amazon is likely to boost its own healthcare ambitions after exiting Haven JV

Amazon.com Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are calling it quits on their healthcare joint venture, but the e-commerce company is forging ahead with solo ambitions in the healthcare space and will likely apply the knowledge it obtained from working with its soon-to-be former partners, according to health industry experts and analysts.

Experts say the e-commerce company can use what it has learned from the Haven experience and apply insights to healthcare programs in areas like telehealth and negotiations with healthcare providers.

Over the past three years, Amazon has introduced new ways to deliver care, including the Amazon Care virtual and in-person health clinic that debuted in 2019 for employees in the Seattle area and Amazon Pharmacy, an online pharmacy platform the company launched in November 2020 that offers prescription delivery and drug price transparency. Amazon could also pilot new programs that incentivize employees to lower their own healthcare spend, experts say.

"Amazon absolutely has a great opportunity to make a success of their healthcare ambitions on their own than through Haven," said Paddy Padmanabhan, founder and CEO of Damo Consulting, a growth strategy and digital transformation advisory firm that works with healthcare enterprises and global technology companies, in an interview. "I never saw Amazon sort of hitching their healthcare wagon to Haven at any point."

But the disbandment of Haven highlights the difficulties of disrupting a fragmented and highly regulated industry dominated by large incumbent players such as CVS Health Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. and rife with complexities, including a vast web of middlemen and insurance companies, experts say.

"It's a very complex and unique business model that these three groups had never necessarily been in the weeds on," said Paul Ceverha, managing director in the healthcare practice at AArete, in an interview.

Lessons learned

With insights gained through Haven, Amazon can leverage its workforce of more than 1 million employees and ability to reach millions of paid Prime subscribers to test new programs in areas ranging from insurance plans to telehealth services, a growing arena of opportunity as the pandemic has led consumers to avoid receiving in-person healthcare services.

"They are well-equipped and have tons of experience and exceptional execution on supply chain issues," said Ceverha.

U.S. telehealth services industry revenue has grown significantly over the past five years to $3.22 billion as of 2020, according to IBIS World.
Full story -

Yep, Amazon could easily buy EKF (they have already acquired some health related businesses), but given the deal thus far, partnering is obviously the preferred choice with EKF (and Longhorn). EKF's Life Science business could offer and indeed provide a 'lot' more than just the current deal for PBS.

Also, there is a lot more under EKF's bonnet than first glance reveals, such as specialist knowledge and relationships, which could be very useful in realizing some of Amazons ambitions, such as EKF's Preferred partnership agreement with Mount Sinai Innovation Partners that provides EKF with advanced access to innovative commercial opportunities arising from Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) owned technologies managed by MSIP in the field of digital healthcare.

Not everything can or should be bought outright, sometimes partnering can offer a better platform to realizing ambitions and growth! And as outlined in the above article, given some of the complexities that Amazon has experienced, may be they are content with a strong EKF partnership for the foreseeable, and not to mention what benefits Amazons exceptional supply chain and logistics will bring into the equation!

[jacks13] 01/4/2021 14:58

Wan, as a shareholder and having no knowledge of the health care sector I am curious as to what Amazon's longer term intentions might be. I know they are establishing their own laboratories and are intent on creating a business of their own. Will they, in your assessment, have a longer term need of EKF's support or are they likely to emerge in due course as a well resourced competitor? Potentially supplanting them.
What barriers might exist in the nature of the industry that would inhibit Amazon from cannibalising EKF's market?

[wan] 01/4/2021 14:15

Shanklin...The deal with Amazon will both endure and evolve in my view, and subsequently is likely to have a transformative effect upon those parties actively involved.

But just as one quick example of there being more to EKF than that deal alone, certain sales into India (which hasn't featured in the past) was described as "taking-off for EKF".

[melody9999] 01/4/2021 14:02

Thanks Wan 1691

[shanklin] 01/4/2021 12:41

Thank you wan

Yes, that was the section of the results statement that piqued my interest. So long as it’s a major win-win for both parties, I guess both companies will be happy to continue with it for an extended period.

I appreciate EKF are very positive about multiple strands of the business. Just a shame I did not attend this week’s presentation; it was obviously very positive.

[wan] 01/4/2021 12:17

Shanklin...Excerpt from the Results below -

Having done some preparatory work in 2019, long before the world had heard of COVID, in March 2020 we signed a contract manufacturing agreement with Longhorn Vaccines and Diagnostics LLC in the US for their FDA-approved PrimeStore MTM sample collection device. It is designed to de-activate pathogens rapidly and stabilise test samples for up to four weeks with no requirement for cold storage. This approach also allows samples to be tested by a greater number of laboratories, as the handling risks for the deactivated virus are reduced.

The sudden demand for this product meant that from a standing start at our facility in Boerne, Texas, we had to create a supply chain, a reagent production line and a tube filling line for a regulated product, along with all of the associated peripheral activities. We quickly realised that there would also be a demand for this product in Europe. In the UK, a project team was formed which created a fully manned and trained production facility from scratch using space that had been set aside for development activities, and was up and running in less than 8 weeks. In Germany, a further production line was also started.

It has taken enormous flexibility, dedication, skill, and teamwork, especially from the project teams set up to create and run these facilities, but also from everyone else in the organisation and on behalf of the Board I would like to extend my thanks to all of them. Their work is not over; as the pandemic evolves, so do the needs of our customers, whose programmes are continuing into 2021.



But it's not all about Longhorn and PrimeStore MTM, EKF have further numerous strings to its bow, some of which are taut for delivery!

[shanklin] 01/4/2021 12:02

Do Longhorn have a lot of history with EKF please? Obviously this PrimeStore MTM licensing agreement is very important to EKF

[melody9999] 01/4/2021 11:51

Behind the curve here - can anyone provide a link to yesterday's presentation pls?

[wan] 01/4/2021 08:40

Thanks for highlighting that Rivaldo.

[rivaldo] 01/4/2021 08:38

The IC have carried out a screening test for GARP (growth at a reasonable price) of all stocks in the FTSE All-Small and Alternative Investment Market (Aim) indices.

Only eight AIM stocks pass at least 6 out of 7 tests. EKF are one of them (I additionally hold SUR and KAPE which are also in those top 8 companies)...



Extract:

"The screening criteria are:

●A PEG ratio in the bottom quarter of all stocks screened.
●EPS growth forecast for each of the next two financial years and an average growth rate over the period of more than 10 per cent and less than 50 per cent(i.e. high, but sustainably so).
●Either a return on equity (ROE) of over 12.5 per cent or an operating margin of over 15 per cent (i.e. an indicator of a quality business that may have a sustainable advantage).
●Either three-month share price momentum better than the median average or earnings upgrades of 10 per cent or more over the past three months (i.e. recent reasons to feel positive).
●Operating cash conversion of 90 per cent or more.
●Net debt of less than 1.5 times cash profits.
●A market capitalisation of more than £10m (i.e. not severely illiquid).

Not many stocks pass such a stringent list of criteria."

[mirandaj] 31/3/2021 12:10

Just a reminder:

"$5m investment in Trellus Health for c. 31% share of business announced 20 August 2020

Trellus to develop a resilience-driven digital health solution for complex chronic conditions

• Multi-year licence with MSHS to commercialise Trellus’ GRITT-IBD resilience assessment and personalised treatment methodology

• Focused on the treatment of chronic conditions, starting with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), including Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis

• 90% of the US $3.3 trillion annual health care expenditure is for chronic diseases with patients suffering from both chronic medical and mental health conditions costing twice as much (Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, CDC)

• Intention to IPO Trellus on AIM in H1 2021; EKF’s holding distributed in specie to our shareholders in December 2020"

[btgman] 31/3/2021 11:16

Totally agree with all comments above EKF is in a stunning position with the Amazon contract and all their other underlying contracts. Amazed you can still buy in the 70's I suspect this will continue to move significantly higher.
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[wan] 31/3/2021 08:55

Jeff Fischer, Co-Founder, President Longhorn Vaccines and Diagnostics stated the following yesterday -

Congratulations to amazon for their sarscov2 testing EUA. Amazon pushed PrimeStore MTM to extreme temperature levels to ensure sample integrity in the real world conditions they were experiencing. The FDA reviewed and accepted data demonstrating that PrimeStore MTM preserved SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 5 days at 40+C

[wan] 31/3/2021 08:51

James...The other thing to consider is the logistics.

So, imagine a transport media that is safe and does not require specialist handling or special vehicles/refrigeration, cue PrimeStore MTM and cue Amazons existing logistical expertise and existing delivery fleet and staff etc.

[wan] 31/3/2021 08:46

Last night I mentioned certain news flow regarding Amazon and its healthcare ambitions. Here is just the start of the reality (and another underlying theme that investors may pick up on)-

8 things that make Amazon Care unique from competitors
Hannah Mitchell - Wednesday, March 24th, 2021

Amazon has surpassed milestones in its expansion into the healthcare sector. Unlike traditional healthcare organizations, the company's virtual care pilot, Amazon Care, adopted a unique business model. Here are eight things that make Amazon Care different from traditional healthcare organizations.

Eight things that differentiate Amazon Care from traditional competitors:

1. Amazon Care will expand its services to other companies, as well as Amazon employees in all 50 states this summer.

2. It will focus on employers instead of health plans by contracting directly with employers. This will lower overhead administration costs, which will lower costs for both the employer and employee, according to a March 18 Forrester blog post.

3. The Amazon Care app will allow patients to use engagement tools like receiving after-care summaries and scheduling follow-up visits and follow-up reminders.

4. Amazon Care can help patients evaluate their work-from-home setups to optimize joint and muscle health.

5. Amazon Care will offer non-traditional health services like lifestyle and wellness coaching, the Forrester post said.

6. Amazon Care teamed up with Intermountain Healthcare and Ascension to form a home-based alliance to encourage healthcare policies to designate a home as a site of service.

7. The in-person care facilities are called Neighborhood Health Centers, and they operate on extended hours during both the workweek and weekends to accommodate employee schedules.

8. The health centers' goal is to lower the cost of healthcare by encouraging employees and their family members to go to the centers for preventive care instead of more expensive emergency rooms or urgent care centers.


5 days ago
Breaking Down Amazon’s (Massive) Health Care Opportunity
‘The main thing is you just never underestimate Amazon’

Last week, Amazon announced it would expand Amazon Care — its employee-only health care service — to the public. The service lets you chat with nurses, move to video, arrange home visits, and get medication prescribed. Amazon delivers the medicine.

The company began piloting Care internally in September 2019, and it’s now opening it up to employers in Washington state, who can offer it to their workers as a benefit. Some already seem eager to jump in. “We’re in discussions with a number of companies,” an Amazon spokesperson told me.

Though Amazon is starting small, and trying to enter a field that’s notoriously averse to change, industry experts say it has a real shot at breaking through. Its obsession with efficiency and customer service is an advantage in a system known for neither. And a new push for regulatory opening, particularly in telehealth, gives it a chance to press incumbents faster than many imagined. Health care is a $4 trillion per year business making up nearly 20% of the U.S. GDP. So the opportunity is massive.

“The main thing is you just never underestimate Amazon,” one doctor who works in digital health told me. “They have more patience than most other businesses do — which is what it takes in health care.”

Full story -

[wan] 31/3/2021 08:44

James...Correct, in other words and in my view, it appears that there will be two types of kits, one for supervised and one for unsupervised, as well as pooled samples, which may also use PBS.

[james188] 31/3/2021 08:36

Wan,

I also listened to the online presentation yesterday evening, which I agree was highly informative.

One thing which particularly struck me was the company's repeated observation that orders for PBS (phosphate-buffered saline) were really taking off. I had previously understood that PrimeStore MTM was an all round superior transport medium, but I wonder if that is still considered to be the case.

If you scroll down to page 16 of the FDA EUA which you included in your previous post, there is a section headed "LoD Comparison:PrimeStore MTM vs Phosphate Buffered Saline" which begins by asserting that "PBS offers advantages over PrimeStore MTM in terms of supply chain logistics and ease of use due to the absence of potentially hazardous preservative fluid, making it suitable for use as a transport medium for unsupervised home collection of specimens". I gather that this LoD (i.e. Limit of Detection)study is an analysis that the FDA requires developers to carry out. I am not suggesting that that is conclusive, but it is food for thought.

[wan] 31/3/2021 08:16

As I said previously there are indeed other reasons to be bullish on EKF (more of which later), and thus in my view there will likely be plenty of investors in the wings hoping to buy before upgrades (given the current broker conservatism), or on any weakness.

EKF Diagnostics for income and growth - A healthy, reliable combination!

[wan] 31/3/2021 07:17

What investors must appreciate is that the deal announced yesterday is for phosphate buffered saline (PBS) and hence it does not directly involve Longhorn Vaccines (but it does not impact that strong relationship). However, in my view, there is already much more to come over and above the initial Amazon deal that does indeed utilise PrimeStore MTM.

On March 25th Amazon received emergency use authorisation (EUA) for their Amazon Real-Time RT-PCR Test for Detecting SARS-CoV-2.

Key excerpt from the EUA -

Specimen Transport and Storage Anterior nasal swabs in PrimeStore MTM (collected on-site under the supervision of an HCP) or Phosphate Buffered Saline (PBS) (collected on-site under the supervision of an HPC or unsupervised at home) for use with the Amazon Test may be transported and stored at between -20 °C and +40 °C for up to 120 hours (5 days) prior to testing. Automated procedures implemented within the laboratory preclude testing of any specimen that is received > 96 hours after collection in order to ensure that testing is completed within the specified interval from collection of 120 hours.



So, this looks to be about much more than Amazon testing their own employees (which is a huge order in any respect!). This is about the manufacture and assembly of whole test kits, kits that I believe EKF are also involved with, and that Julian (EKF CEO) and Mike Salter (EKF President Americas) touched on during yesterday's meeting. Kits that can be ordered by a healthcare provider with specimens collected on-site under the supervision or unsupervised at home.