Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[wickimicky] 24/9/2024 17:54

As a long term investor I have managed to average down to just under 5 from 13, 11 years ago. At the time I thought it looked a good medium term investment. Now at 4 it has to be an attractive stock. Profits are just around the corner but I still wonder why there is not a bigger demand from the agri industry. What are farmers using now to solve the problems? Are there cheaper options?

[timbo_slice] 24/9/2024 16:46

Timbo Slice is Timbo Slice.

[neutralpov] 24/9/2024 16:36

Alchemy 24 Sep '24 - 09:52 - 18639
> Thank you for your views. They are important to my decision making.

Excellent, all this will help enhance the damages we can get in the High Court after the Crown Court has put these filthy degenerates behind bars for the pleasure of Sambo the "Sell-Mate".

[supersonico] 24/9/2024 13:41

Very well put MNS but you realise I hope that it Is Difficult to Get Lube to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It

[money never sleeps] 24/9/2024 12:35

JakNife
Thanks for your concern. I've done very well investing in perpetually languishing businesses which are on the turnaround. It is not for everyone granted. But Eden has been enormously resilient, and as you say, a fairly typical example of an AIM company which has always raised cash.

I'll give you three key reasons which marks Eden out as likely to do well in the short, medium, and long term:

1. It is still here.
2. The story has never changed (compare that with a whole load of "pivoting" AIM shyte stocks run by unscrupulous Directors)
3.The yoy pattern of upwards product sales growth is real fact. It is fast reaching the key milestone of profitability, but the headroom to go further is huge.

The worst accusation aaginst Eden is that Directors are overpaid. I AGREE. But that alone won't stop my investment being a successful one.

[money never sleeps] 24/9/2024 12:23

I agree wholeheartedly with one point by jakNife - £7.7m is a reasonable assumption as a breakeven figure on revenues, though it would be much less than that if they scale back on headcount (now 25 staff). Taking JakNife's point literally this move would be easy as no-one does anything.

My cautious FYE 2025 is £7.5m (it is a cautious figure for a whole range of reasons which might need to be revised significantly upwards within the next 3 months given expected newsflow and confirmation of £5m+ revenues in 2024 FYE).

The bear case is fast running out of juice.

[jaknife] 24/9/2024 12:19

Money never sleeps,

You are doomed to be a losing investor, like supersonico, who is already sitting on significant Eden losses.

The basic maths (and the house broker) tells you that Eden is going to lose money for 2024 and 2025. Common sense should tell you that the share price of perpetually loss-making shares always heads to zero.

The share price now is 4.05p (mid), let us discuss this again when the finals come out.

JakNife

[money never sleeps] 24/9/2024 12:00

Seems as though a few sock puppets are stuck in a time warp. I have no wish to rake over what happened 20-30 years ago!

[supersonico] 24/9/2024 11:59

JaKnife Lube.. you make a lot of assertions but I'm intrigued to know..

Can you actually say Cedroz yet?

I ask as many would describe your history of not being able say Cedroz during a 5 year period (which you have long since deleted ) where Eden only had two products as an impediment to taking you seriously.

[supersonico] 24/9/2024 11:55

The Euroseeds2024 🧜🏻‍♀️ Congress is coming in about 2️⃣ weeks! 🎉

This is where we will see if Ecovelex is still 2025+ for Mr Costa and what that actually means.

[alchemy] 24/9/2024 11:37

They're letting the penny drop rather than shaking the machine that's for sure.

[money never sleeps] 24/9/2024 09:21

I was too busy golfing yesterday to be able to tune in to the presentation (I had one of my best ever rounds!). Have now listened to the presentation this morning and feel there was a subtle mood and confidence change. But they are being uber cautious about saying anything too much to spike the share price

Big 12 months incoming to see how fast this grows into BORING repeatable profitability. The market will like it a whole heap when that time comes - maybe 2025...? I am not sure of whether they will quite achieve that - but the core business is getting close and if ecovelex drops it is nailed on. It's why I climbed back in. Any fundraise (if it happens) will be non-dilutive if the next 6-12 months product sales come in as we now expect.

[alchemy] 24/9/2024 08:52

Thank you for your views.They are important to my decision making.

[kittybiscuits] 24/9/2024 06:29

And again and again!!

[supersonico] 24/9/2024 05:37

So what that all points to is the deleter Lube who can't say Cedroz is wrong yet again.

[supersonico] 24/9/2024 05:05

What Eden and Corteva have told us previously about Ecovelex for the 2025 growing season.

Costa told us 'very soon' when presenting Ecovelex with 2025+ clearly stated and Smith saying they will be applying for EUA approval in Italy and possibly other territories across Europe.

The language shift now from Eden.

Yesterday we were told by Smith yesterday

Ecovelex .".of course we are
pursuing again a temporary approval for the use of Ecovelex in Europe to repel
Birds on Maize Seed, the application for that has been submitted and we
awaiting the decision of the regulatory authorities in the relevant countries".

Plus this from Abrey yesterday;

Ecovelex .."so overall we see this as an opportunity that's actually bigger than Mevelone and Cedroz put together so around 34 million euros in the EU UK Alone we're looking at about 3.6 million euros a peak for this particular use we expect that to be a shorter time frame than three years to Peak because of those same drivers and we're very far through the process of seeking full approval for the product we've talked about the emergency use authorizations one of which we successfully received last year which led to a material sale of product to Cortiva so this is a big one for us we're very excited about it we've made a good amount of progress and that's it's been a really good project"

[money never sleeps] 24/9/2024 01:19

- Growth companies make losses.
- Significant latent value in IP.
- Slow growth profile (no hockey stick). YoY revenue increases (high double digiit)
- Low fixed cost base .
- Almost reached tipping point into profit. No visibility on this yet
- Growth is baked in. Ratchet effect / highly predictatble repeat (and expanding) revenues.
- Supportive institutional investors (2023 raise).
- Opportunity for premium fundraise to support growth profile (see above)

[alchemy] 23/9/2024 20:50

They'll beat the 5mill estimate . And we'll know that in three months or so. Strange day with muted reaction but inevitability still the main underlying word. Geographies and applications with regulation a brake and an accelerator.

[money never sleeps] 23/9/2024 20:18

Erinvale - No competent CEO would spend valuable time on an investor results presentation talking about what is ancient history. The company has survived through to near term profitability. That's a big tick for the Directors given how long they've had to survive as a loss making business

[chrischas] 23/9/2024 17:59

Totally agree with you Erinvale