Ecofin Global Utilities ... Share Discussion Threads

[orinocor] 13/12/2016 16:04

I estimate current NAV is approximately 125p looking at my portfolio watchlist.


Manager’s ;comments for November


hxxp://www.ecofin.co.uk/eco/uploads/monthreview/November_2016_Final.pdf

November was a very difficult month for our sectors and the Trust’s portfolio.  Donald Trump’s election was, surprisingly, interpreted as unambiguously positive for spending, growth and earnings, and a ‘risk on’ mood triggered a massive sector rotation away from defensive areas of the equity market. 

etc

[spectoacc] 06/12/2016 07:39

Probably lower now ;)

Edit - having just noticed -2.7% UU, -3.4% PNN & -2.5% SVT yesterday, maybe not so far from the truth! Seems we're heavily geared to falls, yet rises have little effect.

[orinocor] 05/12/2016 18:09

yes 125.8p but dated 1 week ago.

[spectoacc] 01/12/2016 08:36

Not seen any huge trades to suggest BTEM out yet, but certainly off the bottom.

[orinocor] 30/11/2016 09:44

Europe portfolio +1%
UK portfolio flat

[orinocor] 29/11/2016 12:51

Strong performance from the US holdings also yesterday but UK and Euro constituents weak today which are down about 1% on average my guess.

Is there a list of the smaller portfolio constituents anywhere? The last update gives all stocks above 2% which is about 65% of the NAV but it would be good to check the smaller ones also. I've made up an advfn monitor with as many stocks as I can. There isn't a massive number because you don't need many stocks that make up 2%-5% NAV to recreate most of portfolio.

[spectoacc] 29/11/2016 09:29

Be interesting to see if it has any effect on the NAV this time - it didn't last time, despite the gearing. Could have been a Euro weakness issue I guess.

[orinocor] 28/11/2016 10:44

Pennon +1.8%
SSE +2.1%
UU. +1.6%


The European constituents not doing as well but still up 0.7% on average.

[orinocor] 28/11/2016 09:16

Why go long the utilities when I can spread my risk in EGL and get a 13% discount!

FTSE down 1% but the big EGL portfolio holdings in UK and Europe up 0.75%. This trust showing its quality today. Moved up slightly to 109.5p to buy from 108.25.

[spectoacc] 28/11/2016 08:16

Then long the utilities, not EGL (which contains a lot more holdings and some currency risk). Yields only sustainable if long-term debt servicing stays so low, and that's before risks like Prime Minister Corbyn and Chancellor McDonnell.

[orinocor] 28/11/2016 07:43

It's all about the yield. These share prices more likely to rise than fall from here.

[spectoacc] 28/11/2016 07:18

Ha ha I do love your optimism @orinocor! Alternative is as I've kept saying - the "bond proxy" trade is over with the rise in US long rates & bottom of the 30-year bond bull. In which case, the highly leveraged utilities (of all types) have a whole lot further to fall.

I do, of course, remain an EGL holder. :)

[orinocor] 27/11/2016 20:42

The 3 UK stocks, SSE, PNN and UU. are combined 9% of NAV and since the beginning of October they are each down 10% so there is a lot of good upside to this trust.

[orinocor] 25/11/2016 16:39

These shares should have risen today not fallen. A few of the top holdings are up over 2%. The other main ones are up around 1% on average.
Not tracking the smaller holdings mind.

[spectoacc] 25/11/2016 15:56

Missed last night's post-close NAV announcement - 127.17p from 126.19p previously, smaller rise than I'd have expected considering the fall previously, and the gearing (c.17%).

1.6p of XD to come off that, so 125.57p NAV, all things being equal.

Still hold, & will probably buy more eventually - currently 106.01/108.25 RSP quotes, vs 1.06/1.12 L2. First purchase over 120p not looking too clever.

[praipus] 25/11/2016 13:30

Ah of course back to Firefox then...thanks.

[spectoacc] 25/11/2016 12:48

@Praipus - I use Alpha Terminal but it's not brilliant for trades - misses some, and only records those that happen whilst you're logged into it, so an early finish & you miss the close/late reporteds.

20k went through at 9.10.59 at 107.5, when bid was 108.

ADVFN trades page still works for me - if you can read it before it times out! Perhaps try in a different browser if it's a Java issue?

[praipus] 25/11/2016 12:25

SpectoAcc re your #71, ECWO predecessor ECWC were over 50%+ discount I think due to issues in the US shortly after IPO. That was a fantastic buying opportunity (with the benefit of hindsight) recognised at the time by Duncan Saville (F&C Utilities and now UTL).

Where are you getting your trade data from? ADVFN trades soesnt work for me any more:(

[spectoacc] 25/11/2016 12:04

Someone offloaded 20k at 107.5p this morning, 0.5p under the bid on what's already a bit of a spread. Shows how hard shifting BTEM's 2.7m is!

[spectoacc] 24/11/2016 11:51

EFR certainly showing the Lonestar effect - and to be fair, ECWO was a different beast with its zeros etc.

[orinocor] 24/11/2016 11:43

The very dodgy Lonestar investment was a big bit of the NAV so I think a bigger discount was OK then.

[spectoacc] 24/11/2016 11:02

@orinocor - but couldn't you have made exactly the same argument about ECWO?

[orinocor] 24/11/2016 10:26

No because if you look at trustnet EGL is one of a very few trusts that trade at >10% discount and yield over 5.5%. A yield of this size and the discount is typically between 0% and 5% or even a premium to NAV, so I think the shares are oversold. You are getting no interest in a bank account so a sizeable NAV discount and a near 6% yield are very attractive. Some very large companies in the portfolio This won't last long and I see the buy price is now over 111p. The discount here should be 5% imo.

[konkel] 24/11/2016 08:49

The price is irrelevant...only the discount matters.

[spectoacc] 24/11/2016 08:21

Had a quote at 108.7 earlier; still further to fall IMO. Anyone remember the largest discount ECWO traded at?