Eco City Share Discussion Threads

[phowdo] 12/2/2013 14:09

From TFL site:
"The age of a vehicle will normally be taken to be from the date of first registration with the DVLA under the Vehicle and Excise Registration Act 1994."

So there should be a similar distribution of 15 year old Taxis to new sales each month ie. they wont all become 15 years in March.
Also 15 years ago the distribution will be skewed higher in August only as there wasn't the March/September number plate sales bulge then.


Seems some cabs have got exemptions on the 15yr limit.


"
12 vehicles granted exemption due to alternative fuel conversions
1 vehicle granted exemption due to it being adapted for use by a disabled driver
3 vehicles granted exemption due to their status as a historic/classic/niche vehicle
36 vehicles granted a year exemption due to exceptional circumstances
94 vehicles granted a temporary exemption until 14 March 2013 due to exceptional circumstances
"

The majority of the exemptions are temporary and only for a couple of months.

StrollingMolby - thanks for link to age distribution of past cab sales. I've started playing with a spreadsheet to give expectations of cab replacements per month, as you say this March sales will be very telling. I think this could be a bumper few years for ECV even with the Nissan and LTI cabs in competition.

Have had a few more at 1.83p.

[opaldouglas] 10/2/2013 23:11

StrollingMolby, thanks. It was the 15 year end date for the individual taxis I was referring too. I think the old registered cabs (1997 year) which have fallen foul of new 15 year regulations would have done so in March 2012 as this is the month in which cabs were first registered? Unless cabs were registered in a different month?!?.

TFL has always predicted 1200 taxis per annum will need to be replaced. Although recent figures from ECV were great this amount of taxis doesn't appear to have materialised. The thought did cross my mind that registration may have been end of year and ECV may have got a substantial order boost in December but this hasn't happened.

I hope the above makes sense as I'm a little tired this eve.

[strollingmolby] 10/2/2013 22:20

And one final post on this tonight - the initial 15 year age limit is proposed to tighten to 10 years from 2015 (p.21 of slides linked below):

• A 15 year age based limit in 2012, and tightening to a 10 year age limit in 2015 which would then be rolling.



P.22 shows the age distribution of registered taxis (to 2009) which reveals there were approx 1,600 cabs registered in 1998-2000, falling to 1,100-1,500 over the next five years - so plenty of cabs to leave London's roads.

P.23 gives an even more granular breakdown of these taxis, showing there were 6,000-odd TX1s registered in 1997-2002, before the TX2 entered service.

The Minutes of the Workshops are also well worth reading through.

[strollingmolby] 10/2/2013 22:06

Further to the above, the ban on 15 year old cabs is already in place, having entered into force 13 months ago...

The Mayor's Air Quality Strategy was published in December 2010.

Read about the strategy on the Greater London Authority (GLA) website.

Taxi initiatives in the strategy include:

From 1 January 2012, no taxi more than 15 years old will be licensed

[strollingmolby] 10/2/2013 12:23

Hi opal - I don't know when that falls. I was referring to the semi-annual sales boost for new registrations (as can be seen by the Sep & Mar numbers above). I'll see if I can locate more on the 15year end date.

[opaldouglas] 10/2/2013 12:14

Hi Strollingmolby, still watching and waiting here. Is March the actual end date for cabs which reach the 15 year limit? (this was something I never got to the bottom off).

[strollingmolby] 10/2/2013 12:06

Another stand-out dominant month of sales for the Vito vs LTI in January:

Month - LTI Merc-Vito
Mar-12 205 91
Apr-12 54 44
May-12 93 42
Jun-12 80 35
Jul-12 91 31
Aug-12 53 8
Sep-12 151 83
Oct-12 60 40
Nov-12 9 55
Dec-12 0 42
Jan-13 0 60

The key month will be the March registrations, when we'll see if Geely are able to relaunch the TX4, and if Mercedes has gained further market penetration.

[phowdo] 04/2/2013 13:35

Looks like someone's fairly desperate to exit here.

[lufc5] 03/2/2013 01:50

Mercedes Vito Taxi Roadshow

30/01/2013
Cab Direct once again joined forces with Edinburgh based Mercedes dealer, Western Commercial, to host their first hackney taxi roadshow of 2013 – the fourth consecutive show of its kind at the Mercedes dealership in as many years.

The event showcased what has become the most popular hackney taxi for sale amongst cabbies in the Scottish capital – the M8™ Mercedes Vito taxi.

Vito Taxi is Firm Favourite in Edinburgh

Over the years Cab Direct has seen a steady increase in sales of the M8 hackney taxi in Edinburgh, with many cabbies deciding to make the change from the old style London cab to the modern, purpose-built M8.

Starting up front, the M8 offers a spacious and comfortable driver's compartment with plenty of handy storage areas. The passenger compartment has plenty of space too, easily catering for six passengers with room to spare. With its richly appointed interior and Mercedes' CDI diesel engine, the M8 provides a relaxing experience every fare for drivers and passengers alike.

Put to the Test

Many drivers took the opportunity to test-drive the Vito taxi on the day and none were disappointed. For driveability the Mercedes cab certainly lives up to its name, offering superb responsiveness and handling even in the heaviest traffic. It also returns an impressive 38.7mpg on the combined cycle, helping keep fuel costs down.

Food for Thought

As always, the selection of sandwiches and cakes on offer were well received by the drivers in attendance. Sandra Docherty, Cab Direct's Edinburgh based Sales Manager, said: "The show's been a great success. It's nice to meet so many drivers and to give them the chance to test-drive our Vito cab so they can make up their own minds about it."

Sandra continued: "Mercedes provide great service and support to our customers so it makes sense to have the show here at Western Commercial.

The show has helped us get the year off to a great start, providing plenty of work for the production team to be getting on with!"

[boonkoh] 02/2/2013 23:40

There's been consistent selling over the past week. And with Geely now owning Manganese, its only a matter of time before those tx4s in the warehouse are all fixed and back on the market.

Then there's Nissan coming in later this year.

[opaldouglas] 26/1/2013 08:49

Hi LUFC5, numbers are great (as expected) but I've now sold my position here and intend to watch and wait. My baseline forecast for ECV was circa 600 new sales and I was really hoping with the shenanigans over at MNGS that sales may have increased to 800-1000+ cabs. Perhaps somewhat optimistic, but I can't work out where the predicted 15 year old "1200 cabs" to be withdrawn from service have been replaced from?!?

Thanks to StrollingMolby for providing sales figures earlier this month & good luck to current holders.

[lufc5] 26/1/2013 01:36

I can only assume that opal is away on a jolly. I'm sure he'll be pleased with this trading update on his return. Only +9.2% yest', but I would think x2-3(4-6/7p) med term.
GLA.

[smartmoney100] 25/1/2013 15:05

Reads very well, quiet and confident. Pretty much as you'd hoped CR ?

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2013 14:24

Trading Update
Eco City Vehicles PLC, the exclusive supplier of the licensed Mercedes Vito taxi, is pleased to announce the following trading update for the year ended 31 December 2012.
Summary:
-- New Vito sales increased by 71% to 561 vehicles in 2012 (2011: 331)
-- Revenue for the year ended December 2012 increased by 40% to GBP31.1m (2011 GBP22.2m)
-- EBITDA before non-recurring items is estimated to be in the region of GBP0.8m - GBP1m (2011: EBITDA loss GBP0.9m)
-- Net debt (being cash and cash equivalents together with long and short term borrowings) of GBP0.8m (2011: GBP3.1m)
-- Loss before tax from continuing operations and excluding non-recurring items amounted to GBP0.1m - GBP0.3m (2011: loss GBP2.2m)
Trading has remained robust since the previous announcement on 7 September 2012, when the Group reported strong trading in the first seven months of the year followed by sales of 138 vehicles in the last quarter of the year. ECV has now sold in excess of 2000 Vito taxis. The latest version of the Blue Efficiency Vito taxi, which was launched a year ago, complies with stringent new European Union vehicle emission standards as well as providing superior quality, improved fuel efficiency, driver comfort, six-seat capacity and fully meets wheelchair accessibility standards.
The strength in new taxi sales reflects the growing popularity of the latest version of the Vito Taxi as drivers continue to take advantage of the Mercedes-Benz three year Agility finance package which has been continued into 2013.
John Swingewood, Chairman, said: "We are delighted with the continued improvement in performance over the last year and the return to positive EBITDA. This year has also seen a significant reduction in debt, disposal of non-core assets and the consolidation of our controlling position in One80 Limited that earns revenue through intellectual property licence fees from the manufacture of the Vito Taxi.
"We look forward to further increasing our market share, geographical expansion and product and service innovation in the coming year."
Enquiries:

[strollingmolby] 13/1/2013 22:58

2011 data

--------LTI--------Mercedes-----TOTAL
Jan-11 112 13 10.4% 125
Feb-11 78 14 15.2% 92
Mar-11 245 37 13.1% 282
Apr-11 91 10 9.9% 101
May-11 120 29 19.5% 149
Jun-11 99 39 28.3% 138
Jul-11 104 22 17.5% 126
Aug-11 59 11 15.7% 70
Sep-11 270 32 10.6% 302
Oct-11 114 15 11.6% 129
Nov-11 104 36 25.7% 140
Dec-11 55 33 37.5% 88
1,451 291 16.7% 1,742

[opaldouglas] 13/1/2013 09:41

daviddosh, I don't know what the monthly breakdowns were for 2011 but total sales are published in final results. If figures quoted via SMMT website are accurate sales of new Vito's will have near doubled in 2012.

What seems confusing is the "1200" replacement cabs figure quoted by London Transport doesn't seem to have completely materialised in my view. So either SMMT figures aren't accurate, perhaps Vito sales will go through the roof in Jan if black cabs 15 year limit was hit end of Dec 2012 or people have opted for second hand cabs (which I expect revs to increase for ECV this year).

Watching and waiting for trading update.

[mechanical trader] 10/1/2013 01:21

hmmm looks like the 'fools' all
going for this one.

Must admit im tempted but these
days I need the chart to be
showing momentum. And TA positives.

Hows Carman by the way David.?

Your such a lovely fellow.

Hope u get it right here and
would like to see more of u up on
twitter where i and pauly dictate.

ps, dont tell him.

[davidosh] 10/1/2013 01:04

What were the monthly sales figures for the Mercs as comparables in 2011 ?

[opaldouglas] 09/1/2013 22:29

Strolling Molby - No probs, header updated.

[opaldouglas] 09/1/2013 22:29

Strolling Molby - No probs, header updated.

[strollingmolby] 08/1/2013 23:19

And for the header if you don't mind, OD -

[strollingmolby] 08/1/2013 23:18

I know what you mean - I expected a few more sales too, given the woes of MNGS. However, there are no TX4s being sold so the Vito is the only new cab in town for those looking to buy new.

Of course volumes have been decresing across the board,so the new-reg March data will be instructive in what cabbies have been holding out for.

Let's see if this 2012 stats table works...


LTI Merc (& %) TOTAL

Jan-12 167 56 25.1% 223
Feb-12 34 51 60.0% 85
Mar-12 205 91 30.7% 296
Apr-12 54 44 44.9% 98
May-12 93 42 31.1% 135
Jun-12 80 35 30.4% 115
Jul-12 91 31 25.4% 122
Aug-12 53 8 13.1% 61
Sep-12 151 83 35.5% 234
Oct-12 60 40 40.0% 100
Nov-12 9 55 85.9% 64
Dec-12 0 42 100.0% 42

[opaldouglas] 08/1/2013 23:06

StrollingMolby, do you happen to have monthly breakdowns for 2012?

Although sales of 578 new vitos is a record breaking year for ECV, I've taken the opportunity to realise some profits in the past two days. Forthcoming trading statement will obviously make good reading but given Manganese's plight I was somewhat hopeful of higher sales.

OD

[strollingmolby] 08/1/2013 22:08

Guys - I've posted the annual LTI v Merc taxi registrations data over here...


Let me know if you need more or different breakdowns.