Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[audigger] 08/12/2010 07:31

Spooky sense of timing IT! Well you have to say that news is on the whole good. However, as I suspected FDA approval is delayed. I'm not entirely convinced that this is just becuase FDA haven't reviewed the data. They say....

"We understand that the Aivlosin� regulatory timeline has been extended by the Federal Drug Administration (FDA), owing to its excessive workload. The FDA is now unable to commit to the original review timeline for the final component of the development programme, which relates to laboratory testing. Although the approval timeline is not under ECO's control, the Company is making every effort to encourage the FDA to complete the approval of this final component as soon as possible"

This is a little ambiguous. They are basically saying its FDA's fault they don't yet have approval. However, the qualifier "which relates to laboratory testing" suggests that FDA may not have concluded on the data they are reviewing as they have unresolved questions. They must have had correspondance with FDA so, for me, ECOs statement isn't as transparent as it should be. There is no mention of a timeframe which I also find unusual. Again, this may be just my lack of experience in dealing with FDA, so I'm not sure how they operate compared to other regulators. However, based on extensive experience of dealing with other regulators in the US and axcross the world, I believe ECO know more than they are communicating.

That said, I remain fully optimistic they will get US approval and the revenue stream that comes with it and, in the meantime, the rest of the business is doing well.

[audigger] 07/12/2010 08:42

Have to say that its looking like FDA approval will be next year. If they operate anything like US EPA, they will be pretty much done with approving new products for 2010 by now. It does suggest ECO may be in discussions with FDA over some aspect of the approval. What I don't know, is whether FDA operate the same fee-based approval process that EPA now operate that requires them to grant the approval within a given timeframe after the applicant has submitted, assuming the data are complete and adequately address the safety and efficacy of the product. Will be interesting to see how the existing buisness has done and also if new EU approvals have had any impact on this yet.

[ltinvestor] 06/12/2010 10:25

Half yearly report due soon according to last years reporting dates.Looking for update re progress obtaining FDA approval for Aivlosin and Cambridge research.

[audigger] 09/11/2010 18:29

Very nice jump!

[ltinvestor] 09/11/2010 11:45

Onwards and upwards !!FDA approval will be the icing on the cake.

[audigger] 26/10/2010 12:28

All quiet on the EAH front. Hoping news of FDA approval is imminent.

[audigger] 08/10/2010 08:27

Lack of liquidity is always a problem with this type of share and you make a good point Pugugly that it can just as easily go south very quickly. However, it seems to be making a very sharp move up at around the time FDA approval is expected, so I'm speculating the two may be connected. Will be interesting to see if we get an RNS in relation to SP

[pugugly] 08/10/2010 08:09

itinvestor:> As a long term holder little demand will also move it DOWN sharply. oNE HAS TO HAVE LONG TERM CONFIDENCE, as if bad news virtually impossible to sell.

[ltinvestor] 07/10/2010 12:40

Not sure but very tightly held so slightest demand will move it northwards fairly sharply.

[audigger] 07/10/2010 12:27

Well something significant is afoot, must be FDA approval!

[audigger] 06/10/2010 19:17

Here we go, is this a jump ahead of significant news...?

[ltinvestor] 29/9/2010 09:56

As we head towards October Fda approval for Aivlosin must be close and then I would expect corporate action to commence.On approval I will be very surprised to see a sub £2 share price again.

[audigger] 15/9/2010 06:48

A few 40K trades gone through. Are we about to some some further upward momentum?

[audigger] 12/8/2010 18:29

Recovering nicely. Would be interesting to know the basis of the valuation which is somewhat wide in scope! You would think they would wait at least 2-3 years before off-loading give that value should increase significantly in that period. However, it could well be taken out sooner.

[ltinvestor] 11/8/2010 09:06

Cenkos buy note out and interestingly talk about a takeout valuation of £3 to £6!!!This valuation does NOT take into account any new products which will come onstream in 2012 so final exit price should be higher if in 18/24 months time.

[audigger] 10/8/2010 18:08

A fine set of results and good outlook. How much momentum will this give the SP? Will be interesting to see just how good the start to the current year actually is.

[topvest] 10/8/2010 11:51

Itinvestor - thanks, interesting!

[joeblogg2] 10/8/2010 10:09

From results :
We expect that the granting of approvals for Aivlosin® in the USA will start in the current financial year; national marketing and distribution will be through Pharmgate.

So anytime between now and Mar 2011 ?

[ltinvestor] 10/8/2010 10:05

>Topvest.He wants to get his golf handicap down before it's too late and I am sure has a price in mind.It all depends on US approval and then you can be assured the majors will be bidding for it.

[topvest] 10/8/2010 09:00

Yes, I think £4 or £5 may be the eventual exit, but whether its 18m, 2 years, 5 years or 10 I would not like to guess. It depends if / when Peter Lawrence wants to sell the family business. You can't see it being sold with a job only half done. Peter Lawrence is 62 I think, so maybe 2/3 years to go if he is looking for a nice retirement present!!

[ltinvestor] 10/8/2010 08:35

The business will be sold within 18 months imho.The statement alludes to company valuation at much greater than mkt cap.I will stick to my takeout figure of £4 minimum

[topvest] 10/8/2010 08:29

Yes, but slow going as ever. I suspect there will be great value here at some point, but that's 5 years or so off. Dividend cut not particularly pleasant. Patience will be rewarded...I hope!

[ltinvestor] 10/8/2010 08:11

Good results and just love the throwaway one liner regarding the research into the antiviral,in particular,influenza, activity of Aivlosin.The mere fact that Eco is going to fund further reseasrch shows that the Cambridge results have obviously shown Aivlosin to have anti viral activity.This is, in my view, very significant.

[audigger] 07/8/2010 18:46

FDA have approved the facility. Hopefully FDA approval of aivlosin will follow soon.