Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[audigger] 04/4/2014 21:24

I added today. I get paid a bonus next week (wrong side of the tax year!) so will add again. I truly believe these are very cheap right now and as we go forward in to 2015 this will start to become a very cash rich company. It will then be taken out!

[topvest] 04/4/2014 20:58

Lets hope so. I don't think anything has changed, so should bounce back. Still worth a great deal to the right bidder.

[ltinvestor] 04/4/2014 20:21

Seller finished offloading?LT

[audigger] 27/3/2014 12:52

Been travelling so only just notice the big-drop yesterday. There must be a large holder off-loading. I hope this isn't the whiff of another placing! I'm not selling any though!

[topvest] 26/3/2014 20:12

Some holder must have lost patience. Exchange rates may also have gone the wrong way. No doubt it will bounce back. They have a very valuable product and, sooner or later, it will be taken out by a bigger player.

[cnx] 26/3/2014 16:57

from the interim report dated 10 december2013

"The second half of the year, which traditionally provides the majority of the contribution to our full year results, has started well. The recent granting of important new approvals has further strengthened the Company's growth prospects and this will be boosted again when additional important marketing authorisations, currently still with the regulatory authorities, are granted. The Group is continuing to build on its exceptional, modern antimicrobial treatments and has already become a force in global animal health markets and this is expected to continue as we deliver further value to our shareholders."

what has changed?

[pugugly] 26/3/2014 13:55

Fall continues - Looks like no support imo could easily see back below 150p p/e still too high - Mainly a 1 product company and not sure how much extra penetration (increased t/o) they can achieve.

any one any views as to what would be a reasonable p/e going forward.

To start us off I would suggest that 18 might be a fair level.

Views?

[pugugly] 17/3/2014 16:57

AuDigger:- Looking very soggy - Unless a takeover bid suspect it will continue to drift. p/e seems to be too high. (imo)

[audigger] 17/3/2014 16:05

Well for the first time ever, my overall holding is now in the red! I will be topping up later this week as hopefully May will bring news of increased revenue.

[audigger] 11/3/2014 10:20

All quiet with EAH which is on the drift again. I expect the next update will be in May?

[topvest] 27/1/2014 21:04

Yes, starting to look good again for 2014.

[audigger] 27/1/2014 19:06

No 2014 posts yet! Some more good news. I guess end of year results is the next key news that could be a prompt to drive this back to 280!

[topvest] 31/12/2013 17:56

Yes, it's about time holders started to get some reward here as it's been a long and patient wait. I suspect that the £ strength is not helping on translation of overseas results, but we should see a better 2014 for EAH. I think real value will be in 2015-2017, but happy to continue to wait.

[audigger] 31/12/2013 17:17

Been a while since I looked at this BB. Looking forward to a step-change for EAH in 2014!

Smell, I think the article you posted is is about minimising the use of antibiotics as a tool to increase weight gain in livestock as opposed to fighting infections; although arguably there is a prophylactic aspect to this approach. By re-labelling products as "only to therapeutic purposes of treating, controlling and preventing diseases in animals under the supervision of a veterinarian" then I think this would preclude the legal use of antibiotics as a growth stimulant. I don't believe Aivlosin is used as a growth stimulant so it may not be directly relevant to EAH. Overall I think its essential that antibiotic use is minimised otherwise we may face a resistance nightmare.

Good luck to all holders for 2014 and beyond!

[smelleroo] 13/12/2013 11:53

going way over my head this, but i sense that this has to be good for Eco and Aivlosin in the US

interested to hear what more informed people think!

smell

[woodcutter] 13/12/2013 10:00

AD

I can't post a stockpedia chart anymore which would be my preference so it'll have to be the inferior advfn chart.



The double bottom is fine but it's trended down below the 21 day EMA for some time and although it gapped up and broke through before it didn't hold. The MACD and Directional index are positive too, nevertheless i'd need confirmation with this break through, so i figure a move to around 230p above the 126 day EMA would be sufficient. At this point i'd expect the trend to reverse and the share price to be above 21 day EMA and bounce off it on the dips.

The problem with gaps is they tend to get filled as happened with the last breakout.

Woody

[audigger] 12/12/2013 13:38

Interesting analysis WC. I think the one product concern is the key risk for EAH which is why I think the duration of the patent is key (something I have never got to the bottom of). For me the difficult thing to predict is the increase in revenue from the new approvals particularly North America & Russia. I think we could see a step-change in the balance sheet compared to previous years but I wouldn't like to attemp to quantify this. Although technical analysis doesn't readily lend itself to this kind of tightly held AIM share, its an interesting chart and a serious double bottom! Is a recovery to 280 in the mid-term a possibility? I hope so and anything the company can do to big-up its profile with investors would help with this.

[woodcutter] 10/12/2013 15:31

been busy with ZYT all morning finally found time to look through the EAH results and it looks like it may just be beginning to look an attractive investment. My previous posts have always been inclined to think it was overvalued by comparison to it's peers but crunching a few numbers and making some assumptions it could now have some attraction after a significant share price fall.

H2 revenue last year was 28986K
H1 revenue last year was 11445K

That's an increase of 153%
Assuming similar this year, not unreasonable as their market presence has grown.

would give annual revenue of around £38743K
gross margin consistent around 45%
so GP around £17.4m

H2 admin last year £6802K
H1 admin last year £3167K

Overheads in H2 last year increased 114% over H1 so some decent operational gearing there, 153% revenue increase for 114% ohead.

Assuming similar for H2 this year

So annual overheads at H2 around £8.6m

EBITDA £8.8m
shares in issue 62.46m (average will be less than this due to fund raising mid year)
adjusted (tax out but DA added back) eps roughly 11p

EBITDA £8.8m
IDA roughly £2.7m
pat £4.8m
eps 7.7p

It looks attractive on a EBIDA per of 19 and is now in line with others in the sector and a major holding of mine like ANP which has closed the gap.

My only concerns are too much reliance on one product unlike ANP. If this gets superceeded then there's a massive change in revenue etc. My other concern is can this rate of growth be replicated and for how long.

Woody

post note: balance sheet is heavily weighted with intangibles too hence the large amortisation, nevertheless the current and acid ratios are very comfortable.

I figure the share price is currently up with events.

[ltinvestor] 10/12/2013 07:29

As I have previously stated my belief is that 2014 will be a transformational year for the company with a step increase in sales and new registrations.

[audigger] 10/12/2013 07:22

And indeed they have been! All looks very good especially as the main new revenue streams have yet to cone full on-board. I won't attempt to predict the share price move today as I frequently get magnitude of change wrong.

[glasshalfull] 09/12/2013 15:18

I believe results will be released tomorrow.

Regards,
GHF

[ltinvestor] 09/12/2013 11:13

Expecting results this week and a very positive update.

[ltinvestor] 02/12/2013 15:42

Half yearly results next week.

[audigger] 02/12/2013 14:20

The door opens to yet another income stream. Its all set-up for 2014-2015 to be a record year for the company

[smelleroo] 27/11/2013 12:39

company moving fast in the right direction - see this news out in the US the other day. am sure share price will re-rate in due course, probably with the results in the next week or so....

Pharmgate Receives Regulatory Approval for Deracin® 22% Granular, in Canada

Pharmgate LLC of Ramsey, NJ, announces the approval of its flagship product, Deracin® 22% Granular Premix containing 22% chlortetracycline, by the Veterinary Drugs Directorate of Health Canada. As the majority owned U.S. subsidiary of Jinhe Biotechnology, the largest manufacturer of chlortetracycline in the world, Pharmgate will become a significant supplier of branded chlortetracycline products in Canada.

Pharmgate LLC of Ramsey, NJ, announces the approval of its flagship product, Deracin® 22% Granular Premix containing 22% chlortetracycline, by the Veterinary Drugs Directorate of Health Canada. As the majority-owned U.S. subsidiary of Jinhe Biotechnology, the largest manufacturer of chlortetracycline in the world, Pharmgate will become a significant supplier of branded chlortetracycline products in Canada.

This generic approval carries all important label claims for the drug across livestock and poultry species. Deracin 22% Granular Premix is a high-quality, free-flowing, and dust-free granule that is manufactured and formulated in the plant that has enjoyed a 20 year history of supplying FDA-compliant products.

The product is supplied in 25kg bags and will be made available to feedmills and livestock producers in the coming months. It will be marketed by Pharmgate Animal Health, Pharmgate's marketing joint venture in North America, alongside its first product offering, Aivlosin® (tylvalosin) Water Soluble Granules, which has received considerable support from the livestock community since its launch last year.

Colin Gray, CEO of Pharmgate commented, "This is another important step in the evolution of Jinhe/Pharmgate from the largest global supplier of high quality CTC to a fully integrated and recognized animal health company. We, in company with our partners and in utilizing Pharmgate's significant supply chain, regulatory and marketing expertise look forward to building on this success in adding future complementary products over the next several years."

hxxp://nationalhogfarmer.com/pharmgate-receives-regulatory-approval-deracin-22-granular-canada