Echo Energy Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 20/9/2011 03:49

(1)
READ ALL ABOUT IT...

Well-known hedge fund investor Bill Ackman said Wednesday that he's making a big bet on the Hong Kong dollar

Ackman, founder and CEO of the $10 billion hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, is basing the bet on a belief that Hong Kong will allow its currency to appreciate by 30 percent against the U.S. dollar.



AX :


(2) by Ed (8 days ago)

If the dollar loses reserve currency status their economy would collapse... and there will be a global sh%t storm...

So I am not sure if it matters if HK were to unpeg its currency beforehand...

Incidentally... recently Stansberry recommended shorting various french banks... including SocGen... which has lost 1/3 of its value in the last 7 days alone.... and which is absolutely cratering today....

(3) by bing2 (8 days ago)

i think the US is already losing its status as the world currency and i think this may happen sooner than we would like to think.

US debt is going to be 16 trillion.
the US has to raise the debt ceiling again maybe sometime after the next election or sooner.
so many city, county and state in the verge or already bankrupt or heavily relying on the federal gov which currently has less money than apple co.
china and the IMF have already proposed a basket of currency as the world reserve currency.
gold is approaching 1900.
unemployment is still at 9.1% but in reality this number could easily be double.

i am really worry holding HK dollar and any asset in HK dollar such a property. if the US dollar collapse like it should be i am quite sure the impact on hk economy will be deep and much worse than 1997 asian financial crisis. 50% of HK GDP comes from export.

in my opinion, with the current economic situation and the fed printing USD non stop, it's inevitable property will go down, and may free fall.

hkd will surely lose its value too.

ben, please stop printing money if you can hear me!!! stop the bail out!!


(4) ltse (5 days ago)

I think allowing the HKD appreciating 30% against the USD is very unlikely, not be mentioned unheard of. There is a global competitive devaluation going on, everyone wants to devalue against the USA, not the other way around, look at the interventions by the Japanese central banks, ECB, and most recently even the Swiss Franc wanted to peg they currency to the Euro to prevent it from rising, they are doing this for a reason , and that is to compete for exports.

Now one may argue that HK is a service economy, we don't export. That may be true, but if HKD is allowed to rise, what that would mean is that the RMB would now by comparison be less attractive relative to HKD, so now your going to have an increase demand in HKD, exporters may demand to be paid in HKD and park more of their cash in HK, what that would mean is that more mainland funds would come into HK therefore exerting further upward pressure on HK property, or at least offset any downside from a rising HKD.


(5) by Ed (3 days ago)

Pegging Hopes to the Hong Kong Dollar

Hong Kong's peg to the U.S. dollar will end, but not soon. The question is how to make a profit during the wait.

Sitting in New York the logic to ending the peg appears straightforward. As the economic fortunes of the U.S. continue to deteriorate and the dollar weakens, the pegged Hong Kong dollar falls with it. That fuels inflationary pressure and asset price bubbles. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's fortunes are more closely entwined with those of China, whose financial system is slowly becoming more open. Buying call options with a long maturity on the Hong Kong dollar in expectation of an end to the peg and appreciation of the currency makes a lot of sense.

In Hong Kong itself though, the argument is less clear cut. There is strong affection for the peg. Since being adopted in 1983, the exchange rate regime has supported decades of financial stability and economic growth.

The costs in inflation and asset price bubbles are high. The consumer price index rose 7.9% in July and property prices are soaring. But as a trading and financial center Hong Kong will be hit by the downturn in the global economy, which should take the edge off price rises.

Even if it doesn't, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's tolerance for inflation is high. Frederic Neumann, head of Asia economics at HSBC, notes inflation ran above 12% at the beginning of the 1990s without denting commitment to the peg.

In the longer term, growing ties with China, and a diminished role for the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency will strengthen the argument for breaking the bond. A move by China to make the yuan fully convertible would change the game completely. But these are processes that will play out over many years. With the timing of a change to the peg so uncertain, are there other ways to wait for payday than buying call options that may expire worthless?

One possibility is simply to buy Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets such as property or stocks. The advantage: They are likely to benefit while the peg remains in place. In property, for example, the weak dollar makes it cheaper for international buyers and the Fed's accommodative monetary policy keeps Hong Kong interest rates low. When it comes to stocks, many are Chinese companies with yuan-denominated revenues, which translate back into a stronger Hong Kong dollar performance for now.

Investors in such assets would of course benefit on the currency side from any Hong Kong dollar revaluation. But they are also exposed to risk in the volatile underlying assets. Property has already been on a tear partly because of an influx of cash from mainland China and is beginning to slow. An end to the peg, which would make it more expensive for foreign buyers, could accelerate downward pressure.

For those willing to place a long-term bet on Hong Kong, their investment will likely one day be juiced by a revaluation. But those wanting straight currency exposure, can always stick to using cash they are sitting on anyway. Moving it from U.S. to Hong Kong dollars has little impact given interest rates track each other. And while it is very hard to see the Hong Kong dollar falling, there might just be a pleasant revaluation surprise.

[energyi] 21/10/2009 17:43

HK Chart sites






=======

HS-HSI @EP1009G( #21688) // HSI: 20,659 (21800-20,659 : 1,141 )
Divisor: 0.000091 // 1.141 /D = 0.104 IV + 0.038 TV = 0.142 : 73.2% IV
0.100 / D: 1,099 : 20,701
0.142 / D: 1,560 : 20,240
0.170 / D: 1,868 : 19,932
0.200 / D: 2,198 : 19,602
0.300 / D: 3,297 : 18,503
0.400 / D: 4,396 : 17,404
=====
close: 0.141-0.143 : 0.142 /

Difference:
0.142 / D: 1,560 : 20,240
0.100 / D: 1,099 : 20,701
==== / ====== : =====
0.042 / D: 0,461 : ( 0,461)
So .... 110 HS.pts = 0.01 added to Wt. price

[energyi] 05/5/2009 04:00

DJIA wts.============

DB 10854.HK 0.113 -2.586% 5.97M Put 56.83 -0.43 -0.2082 242.94 -8.67 2009-09-21 7500.000 3860.0 26.72
DB 10872.HK 0.111 -0.893% 1.65M Put 68.16 -0.31 -0.1479 230.73 -20.85 2009-12-21 6500.000 2825.0 8.89
DB 10846.HK 0.129 -4.444% 1.63M Put 48.33 -0.51 -0.2623 361.42 3.50 2009-06-22 8500.000 4540.0 8.33
DB 10855.HK 0.170 -1.734% 870.K Call 80.22 1.10 0.9144 438.73 2.59 2009-09-21 8000.000 15240.0 1.61
DB 10856.HK 0.520 +1.961% 480.K Put 193.76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2009-09-21 10500.000 -7700.0 0.50
DB 10842.HK 0.024 +20.0% 450.K Call 19.23 4.75 0.4577 91.33 -9.59 2009-06-22 9000.000 9660.0 12.93
DB 10868.HK 0.300 0.000% 0.00 Call 131.36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2009-12-21 7000.000 21200.0 0.03
DB 10850.HK 0.049 0.000% 0.00 Call 45.63 2.33 0.5555 126.28 -21.77 2009-09-21 10000.000 12800.0 0.18
DB 10844.HK 0.370 0.000% 0.00 Put 119.48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2009-06-22 9500.000 -250.0 0.21
DB 10839.HK 0.010 0.000% 0.00 Call N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2009-06-22 11000.000 11300.0 3.12

Issuer ID Nominal Chg Volume Call/
Put Pre
(%) Eff.
Gearing
(x) Delta Imp Vol
(%) Moneyness
(%) Exp. Date Strike Conv.
price Outstanding
qty
(%)
===/ search :

[energyi] 04/5/2009 07:13

PUT WTS/ on HSI .... note, on 4 May, HSI closed at: 16,381
=======
Cheapest? Lowest Vol
16084.HK KC-HSI @EP0908D : 17,200 : 09/ 08-28 : $0.119 : 44.90% -0.5662 / -3.89
16082.HK KC-HSI @EP0907H : 16,600 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.092 : 45.93% -0.5191 / -4.75
15969.HK SG-HSI @EP0906D : 16,400 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.101 : 47.91% -0.5131 / -5.87
15968.HK SG-HSI @EP0906C : 15,800 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.078 : 48.20% -0.4342 / -6.43

Warrant ID Warrant Name=== : Strike : Expiry : Price :Volatility/ Delta / Eff.gearing
15175.HK HS-HSI @EP0906K : 15,800 : 09/ 06-23 : $0.147 : 51.60% -0.4334 / -5.96
15176.HK HS-HSI @EP0906L : 17,800 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.232 : 65.01% -0.6132 / -3.61
15307.HK UB-HSI @EP0906- : 15,800 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.091 : 59.27% -0.4309 / -5.10
15922.HK BP-HSI @EP0907G : 15,600 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.116 : 63.29% -0.4053 / -3.77
15936.HK DB-HSI @EP0907E : 15,200 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.095 : 49.90% -0.3683 / -5.22
15937.HK DB-HSI @EP0907F : 15,800 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.108 : 48.83% -0.4302 / -4.95
15968.HK SG-HSI @EP0906C : 15,800 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.078 : 48.20% -0.4342 / -6.43
15969.HK SG-HSI @EP0906D : 16,400 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.101 : 47.91% -0.5131 / -5.87
15970.HK SG-HSI @EP0906E : 17,000 : 09/ 06-29 : $0.129 : 48.63% -0.5864 / -5.25
15981.HK BP-HSI @EP0908B : 15,000 : 09/ 08-28 : $0.111 : 61.04% -0.3616 / -3.51
15982.HK BP-HSI @EP0908C : 16,000 : 09/ 08-28 : $0.138 : 61.31% -0.4336 / -3.18
15998.HK DB-HSI @EP0907G : 16,400 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.144 : 48.52% -0.4927 / -4.61
16080.HK KC-HSI @EP0907F : 14,800 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.062 : 52.23% -0.3311 / -5.20
16081.HK KC-HSI @EP0907G : 15,400 : 09/ 07-30 ; $0.067 : 49.39% -0.3886 / -5.15
16082.HK KC-HSI @EP0907H : 16,600 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.092 : 45.93% -0.5191 / -4.75
16083.HK KC-HSI @EP0908C : 16,000 : 09/ 08-28 : $0.092 : 48.37% -0.4485 / -4.15
16084.HK KC-HSI @EP0908D : 17,200 : 09/ 08-28 : $0.119 : 44.90% -0.5662 / -3.89
16085.HK KC-HSI @EP0908E : 17,800 : 09/ 08-28 : $0.142 : 51.58% -0.5901 / -3.18
16117.HK SG-HSI @EP0907C : 17,600 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.210 : 49.18% -0.6075 / -3.90
16157.HK SG-HSI @EP0907I : 15,200 : 09/ 07-30 : $0.080 : 49.22% -0.3678 / -5.31

Historic=
(04 May)
16117/ 17.6k/07/30: $0.196 x 100k : $ 19,600 = USD 2,512
15998/ 16.4k/07/30: $0.140 x 050k : $ 07,000 = USD 0,897
15998/ 16.4k/07/30: $0.139 x 100k : $ 13,900 = USD 1,784
16084/ 17.2k/08/28: $0.116 x 100k : $ 11,600 = USD 1,487
16082/ 16.6k/07/30: $0.088 x 200k : $ 17,600 = USD 2,256
15176/ 17.8k/06/29: $0.230 x 050k : $ 11,500 = USD 1,474
============== =========== ====== : $ 81,200 = USD10,410
(previous)
15176/ 17.8k/06/29: $0.270 x 050k : $ 13,500 = USD 1,731 on 22 Apr
15969/ 16.4k/06/29: $0.127 x 100k : $ 12,700 = USD 1,628 on 22 Apr
10854/DJ/06/??: $0.132 x 100k : $ 13,200 = USD 1,692 on 20 Apr

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