Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[uncle-bob] 29/9/2001 15:11

melfaraj - it is not possible for Americans to eat more chocolate. The human body can only grow to a certain size before exploding.

[melfaraj] 29/9/2001 14:40

things like games, alcohole, chocolates ..etc are recession proof since people would indulge and would save money by not going out.

yesterday i heared one american analyst recommending an american chocolate company to buy shares in for he suggests that nervious people eat more of the stuff!

[uncle-bob] 29/9/2001 13:09

Chef - no, please elaborate! You mean, there's actually a game coming out, based on the world famous cult phenomenon, The Italian Job?! I can't believe it. You're joking right? A game like that would blow the bloody doors off.

[tonyx] 29/9/2001 13:08

Chef,

I guessed you held SEG as you mentioned IJ & checking SEG thread confirmed this!!

I bought SEG at 63p a few months ago & sold at 113p several weeks ago.
Want to get back in but a bit nervy-wants yout target price for SEG?

Everyone else-sorry to be a bit off topic! CHEF do you hold EBQ as well & do you hold any other game developers stocks ie RGE, EID etc. I see WARTHOG (WHOG I think) rated as a buy in latest Growth Investor mag.

Tony

[billy3] 28/9/2001 23:28

went long this morning on spread bet.£1 - £1.10 by next friday I predict :-)

[melfaraj] 28/9/2001 21:05

it went up today to 90 p gainign 6% having gained more than 10% in one day only few days ago. it will bounce back.

[onaroll] 28/9/2001 20:50

The bounce has continued today - interims due in next two weeks and should be half decent? Could it be worth a punt? Any forecasts - opinions welcome.

[fevs] 25/9/2001 16:38

Nice bounce back today, lets hope it continues

FEVS

[fevs] 22/9/2001 00:52

Uncle-bob, thanks for your thoughts, when do you think they will bounce back ??

FEVS

[chef] 22/9/2001 00:29

Tone EBQ is not a dog and has fell with the whole market. I guess to you every share is a dog though

[uncle-bob] 22/9/2001 00:27

The drop is just reflective of the market, as ever - make up your own mind about value. They will make around £30m profit (up from £15m) in the year to end of Jan 02, and their market cap is currently £250m. They are cash rich and will benefit hugely from the next cycle of gaming over the next 3 years. They raised £17.5m for expansion into Europe at £1.03 in the summer. They still have that cash, plus their usual healthy stockpile.

Economic downturns in the past have NOT affected video game sales. Higher unemployment = more free time = more games sold! Gulf war was great for games. Games are not a luxury item, they are vital to some! The internet threat has also been removed for EBQ and when the interims are published expect good news. We know the interims are good because the trading statement said lfl sals up 19%.

This will bounce hard. I have bought today, a bargain amongst many.

DYOR

Rob

[tone] 22/9/2001 00:14

Looks like another dog, back to 25p, I heard hey were 20 times over
valued at the 1.10p levels. Market is crashing and that means everything
going with it. One to watch for the future.

[upside] 21/9/2001 13:54

I agree. I think a signficant bounce back to the 90p zone will take place after the interims, or certainly in the run-up to Xmas. Even in the current climate, a game like Metal Gear Solid 2 is going to drive a lot of sales. Bought back in today.

Upside

[fevs] 21/9/2001 13:16

cheers, uncle-bob, i'll just have to wait.

FEVS

[uncle-bob] 21/9/2001 13:00

fevs - they're already bouncing but if you want 90p-£1 again, you'll have to wait for the interims in a couple of weeks (not sure of precise date).

[fevs] 20/9/2001 15:12

What is happening with the share price. It has lost a lot of value in the past few weeks, has anybody got any thoughts. I thought this was going to a good winner.

FEVS

[goodfella] 17/9/2001 10:15

Unk Bob,

Now who was it said that they needed to close a gap at 68-70 in the chart and who said they would never get anywhere near that price.

Present score 1-1 I think :-)

[pdm] 17/9/2001 10:08

Surely you shouldn't be trying to take parallels from the past in this above all sectors. We've had a bull run for over 10 years now, looking back at the oil, housing or insurance area etc and relating the business cycles from boom to bust is useful but software retailers on the high st, I don't think so.

'The price is irrelevant', for me its bloody everything. Its the only reason I sit in front of a poxy screen all day.


pdm

[uncle-bob] 17/9/2001 09:51

pdm - yes, fact, in previous recessions the games industry was not touched at all. Similarly, the games biz does not benefit from economic boom. Games purchases are not considered frivolous by the nutters who need to get their fix, and games are cheap enough for the poorest members of our society to indulge.

Games are one of the very few consumer-led industries which won't be hit in the coming recession. A much bigger threat to EBQ, if you must attack them, is the next price war, but that's not going to happen soon (too many SKUs for non-specialist retailers to handle).

The price is irrelevant. If I thought EBQ was cheap I'd buy the bleedin' stock.

Rob

[pdm] 17/9/2001 09:39

Hey Uncle-Bob

'FACT!

Games industry historically is totally unaffected by the economy.'

Do you believe the games industry will be totally unaffected by an impending recession?. As you imply maybe I'm a doughnut but I happen to believe during recession the consumer normally becomes very cautious and basically has a fear of spending freely on marginal purchases.

I think Asda and most other retailers will get the nod long b4 Ebq and other software retailers. Thinking laterally and ahead, operating gearing usually has a devasting effect on the bottom line when the top line turns down. As you suggest maybe I'm dreaming so I've a large bucket of sand beside me just in case!.

By the way, for five years I worked in the software business (large VAR distributor). Being very clued in on SOR's and deliquent stock was a key driver to profitability. I haven't seen a company yet in this arena who could effectively manage this area in a downturn.

The final audit meeting is always a dog fight on provisions and deliquent stock. Normally in the good times the bad news is stuck in an ever increasing pile in the corner of a warehouse (probably labelled SOR/RMA stock!), the auditors are happy to look the other way while the good times roll on.

But the good times don't last for ever, and Uncle Bob I won't mention the share price since my last posting here!.


pdm

[uncle-bob] 14/9/2001 14:17

mcooke - agreed. I just object to misinformation. I do not hold EBQ stock.

[mcooke01] 14/9/2001 11:25

Uncle-Bob, unfortunately the share price depends not on what the consumers actually do, but what the (long term) investors think they might do :-)

I think the share price might drop on fears of a recession, but recover strongly once the news shows that the profits are not being affected. Right now, companies like EBQ on high p/e ratios are not for me, given the general state of the market there is always a chance that they will go down as investors go for more defensive stocks. Long term I think EBQ could be a good investment, with a growth market, no direct competitors in the UK at present and potential for expansion across Europe. I have been following it since the start of the year when I unfortunately didn't have any cash and it has gone up in value by half :( Now I have some cash, but I'm worried it might go down, so I'm not buying!

[uncle-bob] 14/9/2001 08:33

"Consumers won't be rushing into EB if we enter a recession (which is quite likely). Also these software retailers have a dreadful time when the cycle turns down."

FACT!

Games industry historically is totally unaffected by the economy. Recessions in the past have made no difference. The recent economic boom coincided with a games industry recession, which was entirely technology/platform related. Every games analyst in the world (really) says the games biz is about to grow significantly - it has to happen due to the installed base of next gen consoles. And the games industry is not hurt by people being out of work, for obvious reasons.

"They always are massively overstocked expecting the good times to roll on and on, hence provisions/write off's and a mess."

Oh they always are, are they, Mr games biz guru? Please elaborate! Ever heard of sale or return? Ever heard of EB getting sales info from the US in advance of many releases thus informaing them exactly of consumer requirements?

Be careful when you say they always this or always that when you have clearly no flipping clue.

Regards

Rob

[melfaraj] 13/9/2001 23:42

this indomitable trooper is marching again. went up yesterday and again today by over 6%. it has now crossed over the 100 resistance level. the next resistance level is 110.

pdm, i take note of what you say regarding downloads being cheaper. but this is for the longer term when afordable high speed access makes it feasible. at the moment high speed asdn, cable etc is not widely available and quite expensive. there is the psychological side of purchasing an attractively packaged item with attractive booklets etc.

the company is highly geared and the share is not the most liquid and can be very volatile, a fact that i have pointed out in this thread on numerous occassions. i quite agree that a share like this it is not for every ones liking.