Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[easyhaveitdude] 31/1/2017 11:31

SilkStag,

Sorry, but you cannot round numbers unless they are not facts. The numbers are what they are, 11.4. Why round down when you can round up. There is a recent advert on youtube by HP, I believe. They produce a wonderful financial software package, demonstrating their support for financial analysis. The other guy says to his friend, why not round up these real time numbers, he responds why round upm, they are FACTS!

So if they are spending 600K a month to gain 33 million revenue

Yes your cash range was a lie. You 12-15miliion was also a lie, that should have said 11-15m range.

You are making a lot of assumptions, negative ones, which really is open to being wrong or right, depending on the outcome.

Does any reader still honestly expect EPO to pass breakeven by 30 June 17?
No, I didn't think so!

Hang on, can I answer this, no point talking to yourself.

I do think they have a good chance. If they hit 33 million, is that not an achievement? and a reason to think, they are so close to achieving critical mass.

Even if they raise 10 million, why is that a disaster. This is 109 million for a company turning over 33 million, growing at faster rates than at any time in its whole history, whole history. Can you tell me when they last turned over 33 million, let alone 15 million in 6 months? How can that be negative? Hae they grown this fast any other time in its history?

[easyhaveitdude] 31/1/2017 11:22

Chadders,

You are right.

Taking into consideration their revenue for the first 6 months was 15m, I'll round up for once, which is without the additional ramp up of the material deal from India and BoA, this clearly means, they are heading towards 33 million or so.

As ISAReady said, to make a profit later this year, they do though need to hit more towards 33/35 million revenue. If they can do that, amazing.

One thing sticks out, where is the money going at the moment.

[chadders] 31/1/2017 11:14

Q1 2017 transactions 2.3million, H1 2017 transactions 5 million. Q1 payment volume $2.9 billion, H1 payment volume $7.9 billion. Massive growth quarter on quarter due to BoAML and India.

Cash forecast end of 2017 £10 to £11 million (assuming no recovery from Earthport FX). Sales £29 to £31 million and breakeven H2 2017. 2018 cash rocketing from a base of £11 million(source: investor presentation).

In my view FY2017 will exceed £31 million given the excellent quarter on quarter increase.

This business is ramping up at a tremendous rate now due to the game changing deals at the end of 2016 calendar year.

Management incentives kicking in at 45p so watch this space. Top up time methinks now the uncertainty has been removed.

Troll, you're dead in the water. Buy now and make some money for a change. It might even make up for the earlier wipe-out when you were a raging bull. No place for emotional lightweights in this game.

[silkstag] 31/1/2017 10:26

Cash at 30 June 16 was £14.4m and add the £0.7m they got out of escrow with Baydonhill with shares instead, gives £15.1m cash. Report today is £11.4m at 31 Dec 16. So trading burned £3.7m in 6 months ie £600k cash thrown in bin every month.
That is worse than most periods since March 2010 but wild crash fy16 was worse, burning £900k every month plus the £5m fx blunder.
So the cash burn is back to £600k per month. No closer to breakeven than 2010-15.
No basis to think EPO will reach breakeven during fy17 and today's rns is silent on breakeven or being on track. It is not.
So yes, 7 years in a row the same epo ceo issued false expectations of passing breakeven. Brigadier Breakeven seems to have lied again.
My cash range of 9-11 is lie, 12-15 is not, assumed rounding. 11.4 rounds to 11. Lie.
Does any reader still honestly expect EPO to pass breakeven by 30 June 17?
No, I didn't think so!
Funding round needed as no hope of escape velocity with profligate management.
MANDATORY SELL
all IMHO. Dyor

[isaready] 31/1/2017 09:01

Chadders, my only query is this;

If they are burning 600K cash a month, so 7m for the year, what is happening to all the other revenue say for the past 6 months of 2.38 million a month? That's 3 million a month going out? If that's the case, where are these costs allocated. It would suggest, if they need to continue this level of cost expenditure, they'd need 35 million to break even?

Technicals indicate a strong ADX trend, a strong oversold %R indicator all pointing to a string rally soon enough.

[isaready] 31/1/2017 08:55

Caradog, hows things?

I think it's safe not to say they are on target to hit profit. Why promise 6 months on when it may be close. Also why not hold it back until it actually happens, no point promising anything until it happens. That's their aspiration and I am sure they are doing their best to hit this.

These figures do include India and BoA expanded scope, so transactions will increase.

Clearly their system is scalable, so the name of the game now is volume.

[chadders] 31/1/2017 08:16

Investing for the future, as they've said repeatedly. Don't confuse cash burn with strategic investment. Unless it suits your end game of course.

[culford] 31/1/2017 08:14

Very strong growth in recurring transactions which will turn to revenue growth soon enough. EPO well on way to being a key utility for those wishing to make international transfers. This company will be worth a multiple of current market cap. in a few years.

[caradog] 31/1/2017 07:55

Encouraging growth, but slight fall in margins. Cash was 24.1 million a year ago, now down to 11.4 and no mention of profitability in the statement.

[chadders] 31/1/2017 07:37

Financial and Transactional Highlights

-- Revenues expected to be approximately GBP14.3 million (H1 FY16: GBP10.6 million), an increase of 35%


-- Transactional revenues comprised more than 95% of total revenue
-- Gross margin at approximately 70%
-- Cash balance at period end was approximately GBP11.4 million
-- Number of transactions in the period increased to 5 million, an 80% increase from H1 FY16
o December 2016 set a record month for the number of transactions in the Company's history


-- Payment volume reached $7.8 billion, an increase of more than 96% from H1 FY16

[chadders] 31/1/2017 07:24

Very tidy indeed. Oh dear Troll you've got it very wrong. £11.4 million cash, huge growth, record month and more to come.

[silkstag] 30/1/2017 20:12

Easy,
1) How many times was it ok for Brigadier Breakeven to report that he expected to pass breakeven this year, it not happen by a huge margin, but say the same thing about the next year? Is 7 fails in a row ok?
2) There comes a number of huge misses in a row where a neutral would conclude that these breakeven assertions are being made knowing it to be false or with reckless indifference as to their truth. That is the test for fraudulent misrepresentation i.e. a lie.
3) It is not just the number of misses, it is the scale of misses and the lateness with which the huge misses have been disclosed to the market i.e. lie cover-ups.
4) Taken serially and collectively it does seem fair comment to conclude that Brigadier Breakeven has been lying about breakeven.
5) If the cash at 31 Dec 16 was about £9-11m then it would appear he lied again. If it was £12-15m then he didn't. (We must exclude any insurance recovery, we are talking about trading).
6) EPO will soon have to admit the 31 Dec 16 cash figure and may be desperately fund raising before it has to admit it lied again about breakeven in fy17.

BASED ON PAST FACTS I EXPECT EPO LIED AGAIN
MANDATORY SELL
all IMHO. Dyor

[isaready] 30/1/2017 16:46

That's 3 questions, can she count.

[easyhaveitdude] 30/1/2017 16:44

Mad, that's a bit rude, still better saying that than Tsoser.

SilkStag,

For a moment lets look at the definition of the term LIE.

A lie is a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood

Are you suggesting, they knew all along they would not achieve X or Y each and every time, rather than quite possibly, they changed strategy, for multiple reasons, which clearly affected their intent at the time.

Question: Are you saying the management of earthport were deliberate on intending to deceive?

Your statement seems to make several assumptions.

You assume:
They will never get 5 million returned via insurance.
They will never get an increase in revenue, hitting breakeven.
Their revenue is not increasing as we speak.

Question: What if they did hit breakeven, would you then retract your statement about the earthport management, that they lied?

Surely, looking at how the company has evolved, even you can see, since 2010, their revenue has increased from 2 million to near 30 million. This is not pocket money and not to be ignored. To be honest, why are you ignoring this fact, the fact they may well be on target, the fact, their revenue went up from 2 million to 22 million?

You seem to suggest the company is doomed, the company has no future, but looking at them, it seems the news is great, the company is moving on well and their future is possibly very secure.

Question: If they had to raise 10 million, in the grand scheme of things, this would not be a sign of a company doomed for failure, it's simply a buffer to hit their targets. It's a question of growth and target markets. Looking at India, Bank of America, these are deals which are more than just peanuts.

[silkstag] 30/1/2017 15:02

Assertion of breakeven in fy17 is likely a lie just like it was in 2010-16.
EPO burned £16m cash in fy16 = £11m plus £5m fx blunder. Cash at 30 June 16 was £15m so assuming management lied shamelessly and there is no progress at all toward breakeven, cash at 31 Dec 16 was about £9m (=15-6). Still throwing in the bin £1m cash every month.
If so, 10p here we come.
Mugs beware. You are the legitimate prey of liars. EPO seems to be led by a liar.'Brigadier Breakeven'.
MANDATORY SELL.
all IMHO. Dyor

[isaready] 29/1/2017 17:19

I'd not worry.

[madmonkflin] 28/1/2017 08:43

Charts say 22p but they're also late on the update compared to last year.

[chadders] 27/1/2017 18:11

Troll, fairly predictable that you appear on a down day. Anyhow there are lots and lots of outstanding questions you still haven't answered.

[isaready] 27/1/2017 14:31

Mad, this fall is expected. May fall to 22p before a technical bounce.

[isaready] 27/1/2017 14:25

Silkstag,

Question, what IF you are wrong this time, what if they break even this time. Rational says, one day they will break even. So if they break even, will you stand up and say, im wrong or will you carry on with serial trolling tripe and look for your next sad episode.