Dragon-ukrainian Propert... Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 18/9/2009 09:40

very tricky to buy. TD can't get me any online, H-l.co.uk quoting 63p to buy

[alcatraz10] 18/9/2009 09:38

every buy is moving the price

[katylied] 18/9/2009 09:33

A profit. 'Fraid I'm probably not a long-termer here, so price and time
will be factors. Ideally, I suppose 70p/share would be rather nice...

[alcatraz10] 18/9/2009 09:31

wat u expecting from dupd? price wise . alot of shares are tightly held

[katylied] 18/9/2009 09:30

There are 127 million shares in issue, there is clearly buying intestest, just as with many other property plays just now, but I am not seeing an equivalent liquidity here. Still, I don't have L2 so cannot see what is really going on...

[alcatraz10] 18/9/2009 09:27

why reluctance katy?

[katylied] 18/9/2009 09:24

A little strange really, price rising too fast for such tiny volume. That is not helping. What with the sometimes largish spread, I suspect alot of folk looking at this are being put off by what they are being quoted, one moment to the next. Either there is no stock available, (the last buy-side NMS I saw was just 10,000), or there is a general reluctance to accept trades at all...

[hungry wolf] 18/9/2009 09:19

is this a pump & dump?
no sells and only one on 17th.
maybe i missed the boat but this is way too weird.

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 22:43

What you saying "funny" I note the price was driven up today in particular three buys, by two 50k trades and an earlier 30K trade buy. Now call me simple but i have been monitoring this stock for the last 4 months. Now its pretty regular (2/3 times in a week) you will see a few 50K buy or a 100K buy and the price not move then later in the day or the next day you will see a matching sell and you will think ahhh thats why. Well last friday monday, tuesday and yesterday i've seen the odd 50 or 100K trade buy but no corrosponding sells. So i take all the glory here thankyou very much. Its me, theres been no one else on the thread and its all down to me, take a look at the history. You will see I am at the centre of the growing interest. I make no bones about it, i have talked to other fellow investors on other threads i follow, they know me and my long standing research in DUPD and it is all thanks to me that they are here. Other than that theres no conspiricy here dav and i'm afraid if your not in here then your not in and if you are in then you have made a wise investment, because at these level (as the board have also pointed out) no matter what happens, come what may, sooner or later you are going to make money, because theres such scope for the share price to appreciate. Question yourself, Why? because based on underlaying fact!

[dasv] 17/9/2009 17:33

funny how it coincided with activity on this thread ;)

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 16:38

Just seen that, fantastic, 70p is the next resitance level, followed by 80p then £1.05. £1.05 would be fair value imo short term. Like i said if the country was wiped of the face of the earth tomorrow by an asteroid strike, you'd still be left with 50p cash!

[katylied] 17/9/2009 16:26

Have you noticed? It is moving...

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 16:22

Yes i know about the horrific stuff they did, but then again so did all the other US banks including BOA, moreover AIG naked insured half of it! No wonder they all went bust.

Anyway how long can DUPD remain at these silly prices, not long imo. Even if it were over £1 per share, it would still be a total bargain imo.

[dasv] 17/9/2009 16:13

there was a good doc on lehman on monday - went into a little detail on lehman's property portfolio. They tried to play pass the parcel with commercial property loans but they were left holding too many when the market collapsed...

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 15:47

I dont think they are interested in debt finance, they dont need it. The current plan is just fine, 12% plus rental income on the completed properties, dont sell present assets, short term let rather than sell, continue to file for planning permission on current land thus increasing nav, buy any half completed projects along the way for next to nothing from distressed developers, dont start any new developments at all, only finish those worth currently doing so and await slow recovery.

dasv, he was not involved in the Lehman US property stuff, non the less many where who now work for Barclays LOL, says it all, then again to be fair just because people who worked at Lehmann once does not make them tainted now, bit silly really many of them have been head hunted by top investment banks around the world...HSBC, JP Morgan, etc

[darcon] 17/9/2009 13:49

With responsibility for "origination" his remit was to find the deals in emerging markets for Lehmans.

Now he has presumably been brought onto the board to help DUPD gain access to debt finance that would help them move forward with their property investments as well as to later use his connections to help DUPD sell completed developments etc

[dasv] 17/9/2009 12:27

Lehman famously screwed up their property developments in the US so the pedigree is tainted from my point of view.

However I cannot argue with the balance sheet or cash position.

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 12:08

On 23 April, 2009 DUPD added to its board probably "THE" most experienced and respected investment managers in this part of the world:

Biosse Duplan (41) is currently a partner at emerging market fund management company, Finisterre Capital LLP. Prior to joining Finisterre in February 2005, Mr. Biosse Duplan was a Managing Director and head of the Emerging Markets Group for Lehman Brothers in London. Mr. Biosse Duplan joined Lehman Brothers in 2003, after 12 years with Salomon Brothers (subsequently Citigroup Global Markets). Between 2000 and 2003, he co-ran Emerging Markets origination in London, focusing on Europe, Middle East and Africa. Previously, Mr. Biosse Duplan traded and structured Emerging Market debt at Salomon Brothers/Citigroup for 9 years, holding by 1999 a global risk management supervisory function for Emerging Market Distressed Debt and concentrating on credit intensive situations in Russia and Asia. Mr. Biosse Duplan is a graduate from the ESCP Grande and holds an M.P.A. from the Kennedy School of Government in Harvard.

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 12:04

2009 Financial Highlights:

•NAV PER SHARE AT 30 JUNE 2009, BEFORE AND AFTER DEFERRED INCOME TAX LIABILITIES ("DITL") GREW TO $2.65 AND $2.51, RESPECTIVELY FROM $2.47 AND $2.35 AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2008, AS A RESULT OF SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM.

•BALANCE SHEET REMAINS ROBUST:
•Group NAV at 30 June 2009 before and after DITL was $311.4 million and $295.3 million, down slightly from $329.2 million and $313.2 million reflecting very conservative valuation policy with more than half of the investment portfolio valued at acquisition cost basis, while the rest does not account for substantial permitting advancement planning permission achieved.

•Cash in deposits, held in several leading European banks with highest ratings, was $88.5 million as at June 30, 2009.

•No bank debt at Company, or Group level.

•MARKET CAPITALISATION AS AT 30 JUNE 2009 WAS £45.3 MILLION ($74.9 MILLION) WHICH, DESPITE A VERY CONSERVATIVE VALUATION POLICY ADOPTED BY THE COMPANY, REPRESENTS A 76% DISCOUNT TO NAV, THEREBY CREATING STRONG PROSPECTS FOR SHARE PRICE IMPROVEMENT AS THE GLOBAL REAL ESTATE MARKET RECOVERS IN THE FUTURE.

Operational Highlights since 31 December 2008:
•ON MARCH 5, KYIV DISTRICT ARCHITECTURAL COUNCIL APPROVED THE NEW MASTER PLAN OF GREEN HILLS COTTAGE COMMUNITY (WWW.GREEN-HILLS.COM.UA);

•ON APRIL 6, THE STATE EXPERTISE AUTHORITY ISSUED THE POSITIVE CONCLUSION FOR THE PROJECT DOCUMENTATION OF MYKOLAIV RETAIL CENTRE (HENRYLAND PROJECT)

•ON APRIL, 10, A TOTAL OF 38 INDIVIDUAL PROPERTY ACTS WERE RECEIVED FOR EACH OF THE PROPERTIES IN THE SADOK VISHNEVYJ RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY;

•ON APRIL 30, KYIV ARCHITECTURAL ADMINISTRATION APPROVED THE PROJECT DOCUMENTATION OF THE "AVENUE" SHOPPING MALL (KOMAROVA PROJECT);

•ON MAY 18, CONCEPT DESIGN HAS BEEN DEVELOPED BY COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL (MOSCOW) FOR THE SHOPPING CENTRE IN KREMENCHUG (GLANGATE PROJECT);

•ON MAY 25, KYIV COUNCIL APPROVED LAND REZONING FOR OBOLON RESIDENTIAL TOWERS;

•ON MAY 26, THE STATE EXPERTISE AUTHORITY ISSUED THE POSITIVE CONCLUSION FOR THE PROJECT DOCUMENTATION OF SEVASTOPOL RETAIL CENTRE (GLANGATE PROJECT);

•ON MAY 29, PROJECT WORKS ON THE PART OF SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR RIVIERA VILLAS COMMUNITY
(www.r-v.com.ua) have been completed;

•ON JUNE 12, A TOTAL OF 178 INDIVIDUAL STATE ACTS WERE OBTAINED AS PER NEWLY APPROVED MASTER PLAN OF THE GREEN HILLS COMMUNITY;

•ON JUNE, 24 THE STATE EXPERTISE AUTHORITY ISSUED THE POSITIVE CONCLUSION FOR THE PROJECT DOCUMENTATION OF VINNITSA RETAIL CENTRE (HENRYLAND PROJECT);

•ON JUNE 28, CONSTRUCTION WORKS ON THE THREE SHOW HOMES AT RIVIERA VILLAS COMMUNITY HAVE BEEN COMPLETED, WITH INTERIOR RENOVATION WORKS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS;

•ON JUNE 30, ALL WORKS FOR INSTALLING COMMUNICATION LINES IN THE GREEN HILLS COMMUNITY WERE COMPLETED AS WELL AS CONSTRUCTION OF THE FIRST 4 SHOWCASE HOMES;

•ON JUNE, 30 ALL WORKS CONNECTING UTILITIES TO THE SHOW HOMES AT RIVIERA VILLAS COMMUNITY AS WELL AS CONSTRUCTION OF ACCESS ROAD TO THE COMMUNITY WERE COMPLETED;

Investment Activity:
•IN LINE WITH THE COMPANY'S ANNOUNCED INVESTMENT POLICY TO PURSUE INVESTMENTS AND ACQUISITIONS ON A HIGHLY SELECTIVE BASIS, DUPD INVESTED $13.1 MILLION TO SECURE THE RIGHTS OF A COMPLETED RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY "SADOK VISHNEVYJ" NEAR THE BORDERS OF KYIV, PREVIOUSLY OWNED BY A DISTRESSED DEVELOPER.
Chris Kamtsios, Senior Partner & Managing Director of Dragon Capital Partners ltd ("DCP or the "Manager") commented:

"DUPD is one of the very few real estate investment companies worldwide that enjoys a privileged status today, being completely debt-free"

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 11:57

dasv, its unbelievable how unloved can a share get, this one takes the biscuit! If ukraine vanished from the face of the earth, we would still be left with 50p per share. Imo Ferro will do well long term, but i feel its fair value at £1.60. As for Landkom, im afraid thats a stich up imo, possible crooked management appear to have taken shareholders money to play with under the table and have made some stupid deals and pathetic contracts, one to avoid with a bargepole.

As i say, 50p cash and the rest thrown in for free, i mean those gated communities and shopping centres are return a decent annual yeild in any case, as for all the other deals and land, this stuff really is worth money, lots of it. How can it be thrown in for free?

am i going stark raving mad here? it certainly feels like it.

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 11:50

Thanks simon, i am maxed out and very into DUPD now, but will keep it on the watch list.

[simon gordon] 17/9/2009 10:35

Hi Guys,

I've bought in this morning.

Enviro - AGR is worth a dig.

[dasv] 17/9/2009 10:25

Envirovision, thanks for your analysis of NAV and cash. I still have not bought yet... But it looks good on fundamentals from this point.

It just shows how unloved Ukrainian companies are at the moment. I have Ferrexpo (which is still seriously undervalued: the 5th biggest iron ore reserve in the world valued at about 4p per tonne of ore). Landkom also could be worth watching.

[envirovision] 17/9/2009 09:47

Many of my other ukraine holdings doing well this week, cant be long before this follows. NAV of $2.60 cash per share of $.80 thats 50p cash per share and £1.15 portfolio value (after being recent conservative write down). Most shares tightly held, all those who wanted to sell now having been given the opportunity. Trading below cash per share value, Shear madness.

As far as i am aware, there is no other property company valued like this left anywhere on the market! This cannot continue.

[envirovision] 16/9/2009 17:37

looks like a break out of the current 3 month trading range for sure imo