Dci Advisors Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 02/3/2017 15:52

2016 was a corker for them. 2015 not so. And not so amazing in the previous few years given the market performance.

I think I'll hold off doing anything here until a representative non-core property (e.g. Undeveloped) is sold or until we get a sale of amanzoe or kilda hills - judging by the slothful market reaction to the November announcement there may be an opportunity to trade in or out

[tiltonboy] 02/3/2017 15:28

...lol...BTEM have been selling. Have a look at their performance and tell me they don't know what they are doing!

[brwo349] 02/3/2017 13:23

frazboy, My view, having read your post and all the relevant documents, is that you made a school boy error.

Best of luck with your holding.

[frazboy] 02/3/2017 13:19

Brwo349, you referred to someone else making a school boy error. My view, having read all the relevant documents, is that you made the error.

Best of luck with your holding.

[brwo349] 02/3/2017 13:11

A hedge-fund so someone knows what they are doing. Putting their money in. Believe these guys and ignore some of the more, shall we say thicker posters on here.

[tiltonboy] 02/3/2017 12:57

Looks like Progressive have been mopping up all of the loose stock, adding 6.5m to their holding.

[frazboy] 01/3/2017 18:45

aye. they bought most of this stuff in the late 2000s. that's why it would be good to see the sale of real estate, such as Sitia Bay, go through. It's a lovely piece of land. But that's all it is!!!

[brwo349] 01/3/2017 11:57

My reading is that is why they published such a large range of values tiltonboy. No-one knows better than the manager how much they are worth. I do not reasonably expect less than the lowest estimate. I think whatever the lowest estimate was you'd go for something lower

[tiltonboy] 01/3/2017 11:40

brwo,

I am not a property expert by any means, but I have a huge amount of experience in wind-ups, and the difficulty in valuing and selling the component parts. The good stuff tends to go first, and then you have to get rid of the rest. My experience shows that achievable prices bear no resemblance to book. They may struggle to sell some assets at all, let alone at a 50% discount.

[frazboy] 01/3/2017 11:07

Just to reply to tiltonboys earlier post...

My reading of the situation is that the company has $102m of secured debt after the recent sales. The key sale going forward will be Amanzoe, as that does look a bit of a peach (and recent trading looks good), and it has $76m of debt secured against it. I would hope this sale clears the last of the remaining debt ($102m in total). Only 2 of the previously core will then remain. Klada hills may fetch a reasonable figure but who knows as the permission you referred to hasn't yet been granted as far as I can tell.

From my reading of the accounts if we achieved 50% of the 'NAV' (for NAV, read the real estate value quoted in the accounts), then we will get about $111m or $9m after paying the remaining debt (for the core properties). These numbers are rough tho, since I'm assuming that the real estate value used in the accounts can be applied to the sale of the other two core assets (Playa Grande and Pearl Island).

We would have $9m, and the remaining non-core assets to be sold (less ongoing costs, albeit reducing as loans are being repaid and management numbers reduced), which I'm guessing (!!!) we could convert into the current market cap of around $100m... It's all guesswork really.

Until we see a sale of Klada and Amanzoe (and the price) we will not really be able to do anything other than pluck numbers out of the sky.

By the way... the company stated that a MOU had been signed for Sitia Bay in June 2016 and the sale was expected to complete in Q3. Did it?

edit: the market cap should also reduce to around £65m sterling once we've received the capital return for Pearl Island

[jimblack513] 01/3/2017 11:01

80% of the portfolio is in Greece so has anyone thought about what would happen if Greece leaves the EU. I've been trying to imagine what would happen. Would it be like the UK when prices become cheaper and Greece becomes an even more attractive destination and would this push the prices of the resorts upwards.The resorts are international destinations attracting mainly foreigners. The resorts have a bit of debt which is probably in euros but this would not matter if the value of the resorts go up.
That's one possibility but could the resorts go down in value.

[brwo349] 01/3/2017 10:37

tiltonboy have you done a lot of research on this stock and do you know something that you can share
- why do you doubt you can get 12p when that is 5% less than even the most pessimistic projection by the company which is a massive range of 12.7p to 22.5p.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2017 09:16

You won't be buying mine back at 7.5p ;) But good sell at 10p. BTEM will presumably keep the downward pressure on them for a bit.

I guess the flipside to my downside comment is - where is there better risk/reward. BTEM clearly seeing value elsewhere but not sure I see much. Need another market correction, hopefully not caused by a Trump-induced WW3.

[tiltonboy] 01/3/2017 09:03

Specto,

Agreed. I will probably trade the range. I sold a bit at 10p, and will probably buy them back at 7.5p.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2017 08:42

Perhaps another way to look at it is "what's the downside". I don't see a lot, at c.8p.

[tiltonboy] 28/2/2017 22:36

frazboy,

You have to be comfortable in your assessment of the value of the assets to make it a worthwhile punt.

Amanzoe looks to be a stunning development, and I would hope that it fetches close to, or even above, it's holding value.

Kilada Beach Golf Resort also looks to be a valuable asset, but the residential master plan does not look as if it has received approval yet, even though it was expected by the end of 2016.

The value of the other assets looks to be pure guesswork, and with the managers now being incentivised to sell at deep discounts, who knows what we will receive, that is if the assets can even be sold.

In saying that, even if you get 12p for them, there could be a 50% profit over a period of 3 years. But will we get 12p for them!

[frazboy] 28/2/2017 21:32

There's something not right here. If you assume they return the capital in equal dollops between now and the end of 2019, then in effect, the opportunity cost of holding the shares for the next 3 years is only 50% of the current share price even if they only return 8p in total. So even if they achieve 50% of NAV then you still end up with a stunnng rate of return. So, the not right bit, must be, that the risk is pretty high! Looks worth a punt though on the back of the sales thus far.

[tiltonboy] 28/2/2017 18:09

There are intra-day auctions at 0900, 1100, and 1400 as well as the opening closing auctions. If you had put orders on to sell at 8p over the last few days your stock would have been taken.

Of course, if you trade online this facility isn't available to you.

[rjmahan] 28/2/2017 17:36

Tipton are you saying if I leave a limit sell in at 8 I get filled? Don't think it works like that with Hl....

[tiltonboy] 28/2/2017 16:46

Some decent numbers going through at the close.

[tiltonboy] 28/2/2017 11:58

Sellers taking 7.62p, when stock is changing hands at 8p on the intra-day auction at 8p. Poor dealing!

[tiltonboy] 26/2/2017 23:19

No, I'm pretty confident that I'm right, but not overly concerned to want to clarify.

[frazboy] 26/2/2017 22:43

Hi tiltonboy - have you asked investor relations for clarification on the the point you debated with brwo above?

[tiltonboy] 26/2/2017 09:43

Maybe a penny or a fraction more towards the end of April, which will be a return of capital.