Dixons Retail Share Discussion Threads

[tim 3] 01/7/2014 19:11

Unless they just in for a few points at resistance which is fair enough, sometimes think shorters are not the sharpest tools in the box, of all the overvalued shares out there why ever would you be short here.

[undervaluedassets] 01/7/2014 14:28

Resistance is called resistance for a reason.

And resistanse will be resistance until it is comprehensively breached - when of course it should become support.

I think shorters will be asking themselves the question whether - given everything - this more likely to collapse from this point or progress higher?

Given the positive newsflow and results we have had I know where I stand.

[mikepompeyfan] 01/7/2014 11:35

Suffers from acrophobia when it reaches 50p though ;-)

[anony mous] 01/7/2014 10:11

Just touched 50p.

[undervaluedassets] 28/6/2014 08:33

Agree Tim.

Can't call when that move will happen but I have a high conviction that it will.

These are both businesses that are not hard to understand and their marriage looks logical with potential benefits for all.

We will see.

[tim 3] 27/6/2014 21:38

Agree with UA

The problem is with shares like this the big rises often come from nowhere and when most people are generally neutral or even bearish.

Then after a sharp rise everyone expects more particularly when the results are announced when actually the rise has already taken place but they have missed it.

The same happens in reverse when it has dropped sharply in the past.

We have basically gone nowhere for quite a while now and I agree things have actually improved considerably for the company and people seem a little fed up with the shares so maybe a breakout above 50p is over due.

[mikepompeyfan] 27/6/2014 16:03

Didn't they say they would pay out about 33% of eps as dividends, from memory ?
I think they wanted to have 3x dividend cover.

[undervaluedassets] 27/6/2014 16:03

Yes Sebastian James talked bullishly about the restoration of the dividend on the conference call yesterday.

I would imagine that will start as soon is practically possible.

(It goes without saying those that are short will have to pay for this dividend rather than receive it )

[munchbowl] 27/6/2014 15:43

Can any one tell me if anything has been said on the dividend going on from the 7th August thanks

[undervaluedassets] 27/6/2014 12:38

millions and millions need to be bought back by shorters (and will be believe me).

With those buying back last suffering the most.

The big boys (professional institutions with short positions over 0.5% of Share outstanding) have mostly closed their positions.

This plus lots of positives coming from the company(s) bodes well in my view for investors.

[smicker] 27/6/2014 12:32

UVA,
Got it eventually. Have to say it looks impressive quoting the actual number of shares on loan so no way to misinterpret. In the past this figure has been as low as 4% so lots of potential there

[undervaluedassets] 27/6/2014 11:54

Join/sign up (bit lengthy from memory)

Then go to 'my apps'

then go to 'monthly stock loan data'

All the info is there

[smicker] 27/6/2014 11:48

UVA,
I cant find this information on the site. Do you know how this information is collated and verified? It has held constant for a long time even through news of the merger etc. I would have expected short term trading by individuals to be more volatile

[undervaluedassets] 27/6/2014 11:33

smicker

hxxps://www.euroclear.com

You need to sign up but it is all there.

it is the smaller punters and traders that are short this stock.

In aggregate it is a big deal though.

[smicker] 27/6/2014 11:25

Blackrock short is 0.41% when last reported on 7th May and was being reduced at that time. According to shorttracker website there is only a 2.16% short position comprising of FEST at 1.6% which was reduced on 24 June and Lone Pine Capital at 0.5% held since February.Where is this 16% figure coming from and can it be verified?

[minsky] 27/6/2014 10:54

does anyone understand the mechanics of short covering when DXNS and CPW shares are replaced by Dixons Carphone Warehouse shares? Will shorters simply buy back the new combined shares or do they have to buy back the shares they sold?

[undervaluedassets] 27/6/2014 10:44

Shares can trade sideways for very long periods of time even with lots of good news. (Go back into the history of Dignity and Telecom Plus for good examples)

That is just normal stock market behaviour .

Investors who expect billions quickly are always disappointed and lose money dipping in and out of good stocks too much or then getting bored and proceeding to lose even more money chasing "racy stocks" that then disappoint .

As Warren Buffet said "time is the friend of the great investment and the enemy of the poor one"

This has been one of my holdings for 2 years now and I see no reason to move elsewhere despite the siren cries of short termers saying that the stock has not moved much in the last year.

The real point is that the company has moved alot in the last year even if the stock price has not: To my eye the business fundamentals have momentum and are gaining more.

This is not some dodgy IPO. This is the common sense marriage of two high street stalwarts.

Fully believe that this share will quietly pop to new level north of 60p when everyone least expects it.

I think one of the most simple and successful ideas is likely to be the "shops in shops" idea (CPW stores in Currys/PCworld stores - 400 new stores for CPW at precisely no cost).

We are still in the foothills of recovery and patience will be rewarded here.

[blondeamon] 27/6/2014 10:31

UVA I appreciate all that but anyone who listened to it will have lost money. This has gone nowhere since May last year and dropped significantly on a few times too.

The 'real world' is not the one you live in where you look at the company and you say 'hey that's worth 70p, we'll get there'. The real world is the one where DXNS has dropped to 42p many times and made dozens of PIs sell out. The real world is the one where this is shorted 16% and even a merger wont let it rise as they got it by the balls.

Yes eventually it will rise, yes eventually shorts will close. Who do you think can last longer in this though, you or Blackrock etc?

The truth remains that if you have held for the last year you either lost money or didn't make anything. Even CR sold out and he's the one who was here first and made a packet but everything has a ceiling.

Especially if you consider the opportunities lost by been parked here in the last year.

P.S I still think this is a great company but share-wise I don't expect anything drastic and certainly not 60p and 70p. Hope I'm proven wrong though, no position here.

[undervaluedassets] 27/6/2014 10:17

50p resistance is something that only exists in the minds of men blond. . .

Meanwhile in the real world both companies are thriving and evolving. . .

The market remains very short here with a lot of short positions still to be bought back.

Real investors should be pretty happy with that recipe which to my eyes looks like big upside share price potential and limited share price downside.

What is not to like . . ?

[blondeamon] 27/6/2014 09:45

Finally some movement. I'd be skeptical about holding 50 and would look to book profits and re-enter lower if it goes above it.

[mikepompeyfan] 27/6/2014 06:26

Exciting times ahead imo.

The £3.8bn merger between Carphone Warehouse and Currys owner Dixons will see the first integrated stores launched within the next few months, Dixons' chief executive Sebastian James said yesterday.
Shares in both firms will cease trading on 5 August with the new Dixons Carphone shares launching two days later in a climate of improving consumer confidence according to Mr James, who claims to have fended off competition from the white goods firm AO World, which recently floated.

Mr James, who is set to take the helm of the merged group, said consumer confidence has increased in recent months. "I think we are seeing some glimmers of recovery, particularly to do with housing – white goods in particular. Long may that continue. We are not concerned by modest interest rates rises, it's about consumer sentiment that drives sales and that appears to be high," he said.

The first Carphone Warehouse stores inside a Currys PC World will be launched in the autumn, with a handful expected by the end of the year. The merger of equals between the two retailers will see savings of around £80m, with half from cost savings and half from placing shops in shops.

Both companies posted strong results yesterday, with Dixons' pre-tax profits up 53 per cent to £133m on sales up 3 per cent to £7.2bn. UK profits jumped 24 per cent and the World Cup has boosted sales of televisions, Mr James added, despite England's early exit.

Carphone Warehouse meanwhile said the roll-out of super-fast 4G mobile networks helped drive sales revenues more than 5 per cent higher to £3.28bn in the year to March as consumers pay more to upgrade to faster smartphones.

Its chief executive Andrew Harrison was bullish about the outlook, saying the completion of the merger with Dixons in August should mean Carphone is well placed for the launch of the next iPhone in the autumn.

Some analysts have fretted about reports that Britain's biggest mobile operator, EE, owner of T-Mobile and Orange, could stop selling through Carphone and focus on its own stores, but Mr Harrison played that down as "mischief".

He said EE's contract with Carphone is "not up for renewal" and that his plans to roll out 400 extra stores and the Dixons tie-up "provides even more compelling opportunities for our partners" to sell to customers.

[anony mous] 26/6/2014 22:20

Shares in new merged company to start trading on Aug 7th.

[maximillian1] 26/6/2014 21:30

I can see 92 as a target......thats the good bit..I can also see 32 as a target..and guess what I bought at 52.5/// Would like to see oit break up..but nothing would suprise me ..if it went down,,

[billiam] 26/6/2014 16:46

Well, given what has happened on previous results days, I think today has been pretty outstanding. Looking good going forward.
Allez DXNS

[anony mous] 26/6/2014 12:16

HMRCWe all know whats happen if u marry from strength. Lol.