Diverse Income Share Discussion Threads

[business link] 20/8/2003 13:26

Thanks to you both

Pat

[shifty clifty] 18/8/2003 16:48

www.dadd.co.uk

[business link] 18/8/2003 16:38

Can anyone supply me with website that provides information on Dividends pls, with specific references to payable dates, yield etc.

Thanks Pat

[kodak25] 23/10/2002 17:21

Re previous post on Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA):

Thanks to the rally of late, it has been possible to profit from the dividend payment.

Also on XD date, the share price ROSE around 5p closing at 121, showing profit from 1 day strategy (see original posts). This would have given entry @115 and exit @121. 6p profit + 4p dividend = 10p on the day (>8% return).

RSA's 21st Oct. xd date was a monthly high and has since dropped to 103 at todays close. However to purchase stock 1 week prior to this (14th), RSA was trading within 93-95p (Assume buy at highest price). It will take balls of steel to hold for a week afterwards (especially with todays tumble) and I would have sold @ around 111p today. This still gives a profit of at least 20p/share (or 18%).

For continuity, I will update price next week on 28th to see if RSA is trading below the magical break-even price of 91p. (Buy price less dividend plus transactional costs ~1p). I may be suprised.

[zanno] 30/9/2002 22:00

Don't drink wine, then Arran Ale.

Seriously though, check out Birse, BIE, due to go xd on 4 Oct. from memory, at approx. 0.685 p per 15.25 p share.

The company is progressing well, now at 4 x PE, and good for regular dividends and growth,

I've held since 1998 and the cheques are good.

Get in there now!

[kodak25] 30/9/2002 19:21

Royal Sun Alliance looking great for dividend collection the rate is not cut. Their share price has had a very bad time of it lately and hence the yield keeps going up and up.

4p interim due to be paid out in Oct (xd date is 21st). The way they are going, RSA will be at 80p by then, giving 5% return on interim.
Unfortunately, I don't think it is possible to profit from RSA as the two week strategy (buy on 14th; sell on 28th) will see around 15-25 points knocked off its share price. (RSA has been dropping average 50p/month since 1st June.)

However, it is not possible to predict market direction in mid-Oct so worth watching out for if there is a rally prior to/during that week. Personally, I don't think the risk justifies the reward as we will need to see small gains/losses over a 1/2 week period. I will comment more closer to the time.

[cashflo] 11/9/2002 00:53

not too sure about why the support on both seems to be similar, I will ask about, I'm not sure that there is a single answer. But still ready to buy at around £6 if I don't fall asleep first.

[cashflo] 10/9/2002 13:07

Kodak have a look at this one, this is another share on my list of 'buy at long term support levels'. The one year chart does not look that good or even makes much sense, but in three year form have a rather different meaning. The sensible way to trade this stock is possibly with a minimum of a 1 year timescale. (a 1 year trade may be classed as an investemnt). Volatility seems to be happening above the trend, whilst bulls and bears fight it out over the underlying market this stock remains quite strong. :)

Not much sign of the 3 year downtrend on the FTSE here....

[kodak25] 09/9/2002 17:30

Thanks for the info cashflo.

I have been looking at utility companies in general for a few weeks as these traditionally are the mature income stocks returning a stable dividend with higher-than-average yields. Flavour of the week with me are also leisure companies but still researching.

UU seems to be the same as SSE (albeit with slightly larger range). Is there a reason that both these have almost identical support/resistance levels or a is it a "round numbers" scenario?

[cashflo] 09/9/2002 09:36

kodak - I would be looking to buy at 6.10 and then again at 6.05 if possible, just a guess but they may reach £6 sooner than we think. I would also think that we were not the only people looking at SSE and it's failure to convincingly break 6.90 may have something to do with it. Just by looking at the chart it seems to drop much faster than it rises. It may well prove to be a case of patience and knowing when to sell. When SSE touched 6.00 previously the underlying market looked rather dismal indeed - if 6.00 arrives again the ftse could well be trading well below 4000 imo

Kodak have you looked at uu.?

[kodak25] 09/9/2002 01:41

I must admit I only started taking a good look at SSE about a week ago, but I too can see how it may be possible to profit from what appears to be very strong resistance @600. Nice graph to digest, this has only been below 600 for about 1 month (total) since 2001. 2 yearly lows of 580; unaffected by major world disasters. This is a very safe company, and there is plenty of upside potential. Also possible to short at above 680 too. Unfortunately this is only if you are prepared to keep your money tied up for up to a few months to really see the gains. Also the "golden" buying opportunities @ ~600 only come around 12-13 times since Jan 2001. However, I must admit that when they do, it looks better than money in the bank.

Cashflo, when do you forsee 600 for SSE? Certainly before the end of the year.

Kodak.

[cashflo] 06/9/2002 18:55

Another slightly safer and perhaps profitable method of profiting from SSE?: (I'm working on this one myself). One of the best indicators there is, long term support and resistance I intend to set a buy limit (shares) at 6.05, with a wide stop. Although history is not always a good guide to the future £6.00 seems to be a point of good support. 2 year chart of sse - and ideal stock in uncertain times but be extra patient though, imo - comments welcome :)

[kodak25] 06/9/2002 16:30

SSE up 8p (1.2%) to bid of 648p... Going in the right direction at least.!

[kodak25] 05/9/2002 17:56

Thanks for the paper tip Glass. By following your trade, lets see what SSE's price is 1 week after xd. This will be the 11th September (gulp)...Better make that 1 week and 1 day. Lets see the price of >661 on 12/9/02.
Also, to be honest (without using hindsight), I would have bought these 1 week prior to xd (28/8/02) at ~677 (midpoint between open, 682 and close, 672).

Open @677 7385 shares for £50k. Divi collected £1676.51. Using £400 costs. Need to see a profit potential of ~3% to be happy risking £50k. i.e. 674p

Lets see if we get to 674 by the 12th. Before then will work too... I am not fussy about time ;)

Kodak

[dontknowitall] 04/9/2002 10:43

nightshift (post 23)

Good advice. As I said in my post (13)...

...A good cashflow statement is essential but this does also need to be checked with the profit and loss account to ensure that it is compatible.

[m.t.glass] 04/9/2002 09:06

Picking up on nightshift's point, Kodak. The risk of divis being cut is another variable which comes into play, though only if holding for (or longer than) the 28 weeks or so needed to collect both half-year payments (if playing for the single divi, buying a day before xd, the amount will already have been confirmed long beforehand). A lot of the biggest percentage divis are only that big because the company's share price has fallen relative to them - so for big divis you are often looking at troubled companies in a long downward slide; and you are asking for them to climb in the weeks after they go xd..

[nightshift] 04/9/2002 08:23

Be careful with dividend yields in this market/economy.
There could be some heavy cuts.

[m.t.glass] 04/9/2002 08:14

I wasn't watching when markets opened but it looks like SSE opened with a whopping spread, around 621-662p. Should narrow soon. (Edit: didn't mean that soon! Briefly narrowed to zero at 625-625, then into 'backwardation' at 626-625)

Edit 8:32am: currently 632-638p, at which level Kodak you would obviously be selling at a loss (from 657p) if doing so now, which means waiting (as per your original post) in the hope that the price moves will be upward in the weeks ahead.... not a game I would enjoy.

[m.t.glass] 03/9/2002 19:37

K - for about a year I did, with the intention of maybe trying a few different approaches, then binned them. Sorry! Decided it wasn't worth the time involved.

As for planning ahead by the calendar, that should be possible to roughly within a week or two (based on last year's date, which is shown once a week in alphabetical order within each sector in the FT, and then fine tuning to actual imminent date (mostly Wednesdays) when (if) announced/confirmed just beforehand. Unfortunately not all xd dates are announced in the same format - some appear within other announcements, some within RNS or AFX releases, some not.

And of course, so many variables can affect share price that - on the xd day - its predicted movement is swamped by some other factor. Including the behaviour of other investors awaiting the xd deadline. Good luck!

Incidentally, one of the shares going xd tomorrow, has one of the best combinations of big divi with small spread, namely SSE with a divi payment of 22.7p and a spread typically somewhere between 0.5p and 2p at times. Just for fun I have "paper shorted" £50k-worth at 662p = 7552 shares. (664p was bid price showing from about 4:26 to 4:28pm today, and near-week spreadbet premium might have knocked 2p off that). Today's market volatility might have messed things up a bit. We shall see. (In real life any spreadbet quotes would be adjusted to negate the divi gain, and a quote of 640p was more likely, so this exercise normally only works in fantasy competitions where divi adjustments aren't made).(And different circumstances will apply if trading via different instrument). Had you bought stock around its lows today (say 657p which was possible around 3.30pm) your £50k (minus £10 commission and £250 stamp duty) would have got you 7570 shares, on which you will shortly collect a payout of £1718.39 less tax. You obviously want to be able to subsequently sell at a level which doesn't negate that gain and which makes a £50k gamble worthwhile.

SSE divi payment date is around end of this month, but that's less relevant.

[cashflo] 03/9/2002 18:51

Kodak, imo adding to my previous message it would be possible to trade short term for divis, we all know for a fact institions looking at buying a large long term holding in a company may buy comming up to the divi, but there really are so many variable factors such as the underlying market - you would be better off taking advantage of the volatility of the market. There are traders on this bb that probaly make 100% profit a year by careful money management and think little of it other than it's a job/living (I'm not one of these by the way *)

(*) cashflo - is ultra cautious and prefers the compounding effect of deposit accounts and bank issued bonds. all opinions/comments recieved with a warm welcome :)

[kodak25] 03/9/2002 17:01

MT Glass, did you keep your records from your paper trades? I was wondering if you had any information that you think would be helpful to me?

Regards

Kodak