Distil Share Discussion Threads

[jbarker5555] 24/1/2018 13:36

The fact is if you want your product on offer in the supermarkets you have to pay for it one way or another. It can be by agreeing a set fee which they will invoice you for, a fee per bottle sold which they will invoice you for when the promotional period is over, 3 for 2 or 5 for 3 on any stock bought on promotion. That's just how it works. Generally volume sales are twice as much on promotion than at normal times (at least in lager and cider categories if I remember correctly).
I suppose it can be referred to as promotional and not a discount, but that's just using different words to get to the same clonclusion.

If anyone here has had differing experiences taking drinks to retailers I'd like to hear it, particularly spirits. :)

[berny3] 24/1/2018 10:19

New bottles on Hi Spirits site

[acdc52] 24/1/2018 09:01

There are two different case scenarios: (1) Anti Competitive laws (2) Promotions/Marketing..
UK/EU laws (Chapter 1 article 101 & 102) are clear that you can not pick and choose your selling price to retailers but you can contribute to individual retailer's marketing/promotions schemes.

[thepopeofchillitown] 24/1/2018 08:52

Re distribution deals and discounting. Cannot believe Tesco get Red leg at the same price as a smaller retailer. Simple economies of scale. The more you but the cheaper it is. Maybe that's the driver for the offers we see.

[acdc52] 24/1/2018 08:38

Unfortunately, sell off was due to negative reviews from a so called "expert" from Morning Star that Distil Plc is a "Falling Star" despite positive TU.
Dan Goulding, executive chairman of Distil, said, "Our brands continued to perform well in Q3 in a highly competitive market, growing both volume and value over the prior year which included significant pipeline fill in national retailers. Major promotional activity during the quarter and a growing consumer awareness of our brands led to a strong sales performance at consumer level across all trade channels including On Trade, Off Trade and online."

"The outlook for the final quarter to the end of March 2018 remains positive with full year out-turn forecast to be in line with market expectations," he concluded.

[berny3] 24/1/2018 07:30

Two things interesting me

Bacardi buys Patron



and sales growth identified by Sday

71% previous Q3 and then 19% following Q3

Very good.

[acdc52] 24/1/2018 03:14

Haggis is correct according to Chapter 1 article 101 & 102 of UK/EU anti competitive law.

[boffster] 24/1/2018 01:06

Haggis is appearing to suggest that Distil have an obligation to sell their product to everyone at the same price, which, of course, is nonsense.

[haggismchaggis] 23/1/2018 23:45

jbarker, DIS DO NOT support individual retailer discounts, that is ILLEGAL as it is a breach of competition law!!

Amazon discount flash sale has NOTHING to do with DIS.

This is the law below, it doesn't matter what people here 'think' happens, the law is very clear that DIS cannot give discounts to one company in order for that company to sell the product cheaper than its competitors. FACT.

"apply dissimilar conditions to equivalent transactions with other trading parties, thereby placing them at a competitive disadvantage"

[suneday] 23/1/2018 22:43

DISTIL: STRONG PEAK CHRISTMAS TRADING
"Distil plc | Published on 16/01/2018 ( Progressive Equity Research )
Distil’s full-year outturn is forecast to be in line with market expectations, following strong trading across its peak Q3 (Oct – Dec) period in what remains a highly competitive market. Despite playing up against the toughest quarterly comparative of last year, when revenue rose 71%, this Q3 delivered revenue (and volume) growth of 19%. Growth was strong across all trade channels, most notably online, albeit from a much smaller base than the On Trade and Off Trade channels. The resultant two-year quarterly growth rate is therefore the best achieved thus far this year, with Q3 revenue in the current year more than double that achieved in Oct – Dec 2015. Our full-year forecasts therefore remain unchanged."

Distil says they are 'in line', which I guess may be somewhat less than the £2.1m revenue and £0.2m PBT estimate by PER.

[jbarker5555] 23/1/2018 21:41

Haggis - Amazon sale? this will have been supported by DIS so maybe decent volumes but at a discounted price. Amazon restocking is automated, you receive an email requesting delivery into one of their fulfillment centres. If you don't supply they don't really kick up a fuss as they have thousands of other lines to worry about.

US sales - How many years have we been 'close'.

I admire your positivity!

FWIW I hold, have done for about 5 years, not a large position though :)

[haggismchaggis] 23/1/2018 21:00

How big a Q4 did we have?RedLeg on sale in various shops at different times.RedLeg in the Amazon sale, sold out very quickly. Amazon will have restocked.Christmas sales, would they restock after 31 December, so restocking sales would appear in the next trading update?Looking forward, 520 shops to fill the shelves of. That's a fair few cases on its own.USA sounds very close now, "In the US we revised our target distributor list to allow a combined approach and discussions are underway with a shortlist of suitable companies", going by the small number of big USA distributors, the list must be down to 2 or 3 to consider it a shortlist.

[haggismchaggis] 23/1/2018 20:51

Nice to see others have now seen through boffshister's little game.

[acdc52] 23/1/2018 16:07

In China this liquor is selling like candy @ $300/bottle

[petersinthemarket] 23/1/2018 15:53

Very early days yet, but it looks as if the predicted share price bounce might have begun.

The MStar stuff probably did the current share price no favours, but IMO, it was far too pessimistic to offer any practical guide to fair value. This is a solid business.

On the other hand, it's a shame you have to be as good as an ex Bletchley Park sleuth to be able to extract the true position of the business from DIS updates!

On the upside, at least some of us have been able to pick up a few more low cost shares.

FinYr End : 31 March,
Q4 TU : around end April, early May,
Finals : around first week in June

pete

[berny3] 23/1/2018 15:13

PIM, there is a lot to digest in the recent TU. I am particularly interested in the increase in (eastern) Blavod sales. Previous news told us these were licensed to a producer in Europe. A licence fee income is positive for gross profit margin and contribution as no cost is incurred for the income to the business.

Reviewing past few years There appears to be an organic growth rate of around 20% quarter on quarter excluding new listings.

Positive in a market growing in single digits.

This statement in the TU is of interest

"Initial trade response has been very positive and we are pleased to report increased listings in four major UK retailers amounting to an additional 520 retail outlets coming through in the spring"

This is in the paragraph referring to Blackwoods Gin. Blackwoods Gin is already in Sainsbury and Morrisons. It is not in Waitrose, Asda or UK wide across Tesco. Four major UK retailers would be.

Sainsbury; Tesco; Asda; Morrisons. This one may be for Boff and that Tescos is taking Blackwoods Gin UK wide and Boff will be able to find a bottle in his local Tesco.

[chinese investor] 23/1/2018 14:30

6 bottles of RedLeg in my local Tesco today...for 12 months there were 1 or 2 !

[squibno1] 23/1/2018 10:55

share price halved in 6 months. Surely it is a good time to buy for all the anticipated sales increases, particularly US

[berny3] 22/1/2018 16:48

Thanks PIM - nothing new. Took a few more myself today. Will be back behind desk tomorrow so will look a little more deeply at figures. Few interesting snipets to go through.

[petersinthemarket] 22/1/2018 16:03

Berny - ''Interesting in Morning Star - interesting how they get fair value - does it explain.''

Not really - I'm reading the notes on Self trades web and there is a load of waffle about method but not all that helpful - seems it uses MStar algo's.

A bit of the waffle here:
''There is no one analyst in which a Quantitative Fair Value Estimate and Quantitative Star Rating are attributed to; however, Mr. Lee Davidson, Head of Quantitative Research for MStar, Inc., is responsible for overseeing the methodology that supports the quantitative fair value. As an employee of MStar, Inc., Mr. Davidson is guided by MStar, Inc.'s Code of Ethics and Personal Securities Trading Policy in carrying out his responsibilities.''

''The Quantitative Star Ratings are assigned based on the combinations of the quantitative valuation of the company dictated by our model, the current market price, and the margin of safety determined by the quantitative uncertainty rating (an quantitative assessment of the accuracy of our quantitative fair value estimate). The Quantitative Star Rating is our summary rating and meant to be MStar's best-guess at the future expected return of those stocks. The Quantitative Star Rating is calculated daily. It is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in future and is no indication of future performance.''

''Quantitative Fair Value Estimate represents MStar's estimate of the per share dollar amount that a company's equity is worth today. The Quantitative Fair Value Estimate is based on a statistical model derived from the Fair Value Estimate MStar's equity analysts assign to companies which includes a financial forecast of the company. The Quantitative Fair Value Estimate is calculated daily. It is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in future and is no indication of future performance.''

I guess you could investigate further on the MStar web site if you wanted to.
pete

PS: MStar is my abbreviation - in case advfn takes exception

[acdc52] 22/1/2018 15:32

I am an investor too and CEO Don hasn't stolen my money. In fact he made me money, I bought shares at 0.95p and it is 1.80p today and it will go up in the coming months. Do me a favor Boff..as they say it in England "hop on"..there are other trees too to bark on.

[petersinthemarket] 22/1/2018 15:30

Very active trading going on today. A right tussle by the look of it but I (advfn really) make it roughly 50/50 buy/sell. Wide-ish spread at 180/195. I'm wondering whether this is traders day, or mm's day? Whatever, it's not doing the share price much good. I suspect we'll see a good bounce from here once everything calms down a bit and I took some more this morning. pete

[suneday] 22/1/2018 14:38

Ticked you up for that one. Well done.

[boffster] 22/1/2018 14:26

He's got a hands on role alright. His hands on shareholder's cash.