Disperse Tech Share Discussion Threads

[blank frank] 11/10/2004 18:06

"A forward PE of 8.41x for 05 and 2.59x to 06 per house broker projections suggest that the 80% premium to net asset value is well warranted. SPECULATIVE BUY"
Analyst: Derren Nathan 28th July 2004

Obviously projections are two a penny, but I think that Disperse's are more achievable than most. And if they are, hold on to your hats.

[rambutan2] 11/10/2004 16:25

remind what the hb note said?

my take is along your lines bf, but volume has been tiny. the upcoming results are crucial as i dont think the mkt knows what to make of this one and on any volume either way we will move much. any good news (please!) and we should be laughing from the mid twenties. imho.

[blank frank] 11/10/2004 15:56

The price has risen from 16p to 17.25p over the last month and a half, and the chart is showing a double bottom - a bullish signal.

Not much in the way of sells during that period, but some large buys have been reported separate from the two on Friday.

My interpretation is that people stagging the Summer offer, and those who couldn't readily sell on OFEX because of illiquidity, pushed the price down in July and August, but that is now spent. Fresh buying is being attracted on the back of the HB note, and in anticipation of the coming final results.

Of course that is only my interpretation, and I could be wrong, but it does seem a logical conclusion based on the facts.

I'd be interested to hear your own views - its always good to have different input.

B.F.

[bigt20] 10/10/2004 19:36

Blank Frank,

Where's the evidence for your post : 'But nevertheless, the pressure
does seem to be upwards.' ?

[blank frank] 09/10/2004 19:19

The LSE site was showing an incorrect closing mid price on Friday evening, which does seem to sometimes happen. It's now showing as 17.25p.

BigT20, you could be right about those two trades being connected ... somebody having bought earlier on T+20 perhaps?!

But nevertheless, the pressure does seem to be upwards.

[bigt20] 09/10/2004 02:19

No impact on closing spread, still 16.5 - 18 . Makes me wonder if
those two trades were connected like a roll over (despite the small
variation in quantity) . That 122k quantity seems to ring a bell
with a trade a few weeks back .....fact or imagination ?

[blank frank] 08/10/2004 20:20

As at 08-Oct-2004 20:01:39
18.000 +0.75 +4.35%

Time/Date Price Volume Trade value Type
08:31:53 08-Oct-2004 18.00 127,000 22,860.00 Ordinary Trade
08:31:40 08-Oct-2004 17.88 122,221 21,847.00 Ordinary Trade

Fridays seem to be a good day for Disperse.

[blank frank] 08/10/2004 20:14

"Double Bottom
A charting pattern used in technical analysis. It describes the drop of a stock (or index), a rebound, another drop to the same (or similar) level as the original drop, and finally another rebound."

[blank frank] 30/9/2004 18:37

It would be nice if Disperse could enjoy a first half of October like last year: the share price approximately doubled in about that period, to 40p.

[blank frank] 28/9/2004 17:40

A lovely double bottom.

The DPT chart that is - I'm not talking about my posterior!

17.75p ... we're now within touching distance of the psychologically-important 18p IPO level.

[rambutan2] 28/9/2004 12:40

bt20, i assume that theyve learnt their lessons re licensing agreements + their tech is now more proven so should be worth more and pull in rev quicker. an rns re a global company should make the stock mkt sit up and take notice.

in any case, i topped up a little yesterday having not participated in the listing offering.

[bigt20] 28/9/2004 12:16

Blank Frank,

You posted : 'News of a new licensing agreement, ..... could also help with a rerating.'

I have seen those license announcements before....I prefer to see rising revenues and some profits !

[blank frank] 27/9/2004 16:36

Ram,

Although DPT estimates are available, in the 2003 final results statement, and the HB research note, I would presume that projections were left out of the latest prospectus because of past disappointments.

I'm optimistic that the old delays will not persist, and that licensing income will now start to steadily climb, but this will need to be shown. Breakeven in the second half of the year to end August 2004 would be a good start, but sometimes the market doesn't like a full-year loss even if it's expected and the trend is improving. I'm more optimistic about the first quarter results, which I presume will be announced in January 2005, perhaps at the AGM.

News of a new licensing agreement, or an existing licencee launching new products, could also help with a rerating.

In addition, as you point out, the EF business alone could be worth more than the current DPT cap., and could deliver impressive growth.

B.F.

[rambutan2] 27/9/2004 11:44

blank, yes, having read through it i was ready to buy (the 2002 version) at 80p again!

on a very quick comparing and contrasting to the listing doc, most notable was how little info there was on the disperse side. no real rev projections, only mention of two licensees, only 3 techs mentioned (there were five in 2002) etc etc to me the big question is, are they deliberately playing the disperse side down, or have they realized that the mkt they thought existed, and the superiority of the disperse tech is not there/just isnt going to take off. why havent the other 5 licensees produced worthwhile rev, the listing doc said that only estee and bath and thingy had. in partic, why hasnt the jap co which had the largest sales of any of the lisencees produced anything. also recket and bec? (appologies for forgetting full names).

that said, its also worth noting that the liz french business is, as long as it delivers, costing dpt £9m (or £10m?), ie approx the current mkt cap of dpt at mo.

[blank frank] 26/9/2004 17:03

From near the beginning of the Hoodless Brennan research note:-

"Next Results: Finals, End October 2004
Disperse has a strong portfolio of IP rights relating to cosmetic emulsion creams. Endorsed by a world class client base and currently generating revenues through licensing, the proposed acquisition of Elizabeth French for £4.5m (to be funded by an open offer and placing) will add a much needed distribution channel& cash generative base. Disperse's shares were admitted to AIM on 26th July 2004.
To 31st March 2003 2004 (e)* 2005(e)*
Turnover (£m) 1.03 1 16.3
PBT (£m) (1.56) (0.4) 1.5
EPS (p) (5.43) (1.5) 2.14
P/E (x) NA NA 8.41
*based on house broker forecasts"

B.F. comment: that "31st March" should I believe be 31st August. The estimated loss of £0.4M. for 2004, if achieved, would mean a second half profit of c. £100K. (first half interim loss c. £0.5M.). Personally I would be happy with second half breakeven in view of previous disappointments.

[blank frank] 24/9/2004 19:59

I remember that 2002 prospectus Rambutan (and still have it) - pretty impressive wasn't it. That's when I first invested into DPT.

My one main reservation then though was that, although I loved the company, the valuation then was pretty rich - a price sales ratio well into double figures.

[blank frank] 24/9/2004 19:26

I'll be interested to see if you can buy at 17.5p on Monday Callum, as that was the DPT mid price shown on the London Stock Exchange at about close of business, and although the mid was later reduced to 17p, the bid-offer spread was kept at 16p-19p. Another job for Redmayne Bentley, not TD Waterhouse?

Also interesting the different prices dealt at today:-

16:27:09 24-Sep-2004 17.25 50,000 8,625.00 Ordinary Trade
10:33:52 24-Sep-2004 18.00 82,000 14,760.00 Ordinary Trade

82,000 bought for 18p when the mid was 16.5p, i.e. 1.5p over the mid. Then 50,000 bought for 17.25p when the mid was 17p, i.e. 0.25p over the mid.

I wonder who has the greater hand in determining the price dealt at - the market maker, or the broker?

[callumross] 24/9/2004 17:49

another 50k picked up at 17.25 I see (must be a buy as winterfloods moved onto 16p bid immediately after the transaction). Decent buying this week with not a sell in sight. Think I'll get a few more monday morning if I can pick up for 17.5p as don't think 18p on the offer will hold much longer.

[rambutan2] 24/9/2004 13:33

by chance, last night i came across the 03/2002 issue at 80p document. i found it an interesting read.

[mickbaxter] 24/9/2004 11:40

callumross,

I see someone doesn't have your resourcefulness and has paid the full whack for 82K.

[fez] 24/9/2004 11:37

Sizeable buy out of the blue - 82k @18p is just under 15k...

[blank frank] 21/9/2004 18:11

Thanks Callum - you obviously got what you paid for in this instance.

B.F.

[callumross] 21/9/2004 16:48

yes frank - bought at mid price which is not that unusual if you have a decent broker - 5 minutes before I bought I tried to buy online with TD Waterhouse and was quoted 17.25p, went on the phone to Redmayne Bentley and they did it for 16.25p, saving me £400.

[blank frank] 21/9/2004 16:41

Well done Callum, and thanks for the info. I'd seen that 40,000 trade on the London Stock Exchange site yesterday and wasn't sure if it was a buy or a sell, because the mid price looked like it was 16.25p at the time.

Were you able to buy at the mid price? I'm just curious.

B.F.

[callumross] 20/9/2004 10:10

OK - you guys have convinced me and I've made my initial purchase of 40k at 16.25p