Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[hades1] 09/12/2024 16:50

Shorts above 0.5% now ZERO
Qube closed their short down to 0.07% on Friday

[bountyhunter] 09/12/2024 07:27

The first step is for a "possible offer" to become a firm offer and my understanding is that AV have until 25 December to do that assuming one is made.

[con90210] 09/12/2024 07:18

What's the time frame for this deal to be completed, assuming it passes regulatory tests?

[cwa1] 08/12/2024 21:17

I think most people are aware of who the serial down ticker is now.

Please just ignore it and concentrate on the matter, DLG, in hand.

Thanks all

[smurfy2001] 08/12/2024 20:18

I think she's bored and finds it a fun pastime...so go ahead and tick me down love.

[danb45] 08/12/2024 19:24

oh the guy that marks everyone with a thumbs down is here ...

[danb45] 08/12/2024 18:10

Is there quite a danger that the deal doesn't go through due to competitions competitions and markets getting involved ?

[bountyhunter] 08/12/2024 14:44

And on top of that they might even get jobs with AV., anyway they will be laughing all the way to the bank that's for sure!

[wba1] 08/12/2024 14:39

And they will probably have extended notice periods in their contracts which will have to be paid up. I worked for a company taken over by NU in the 90s and the exec contracts were amended weeks before the takeover became known to require 12 months notice. The compensation for the notice period included another 12 months pension accretion, options and other fringe benefits as well as core salary.

[bountyhunter] 08/12/2024 11:09

Yes they're loaded up with options and it's usual practice for it to be written in to the exercise conditions for director options that in the event of a takeover the options crystallize at the offer price, so they are not likely to do badly out of being taken over in that respect given the options held imv.

[yump] 08/12/2024 10:46

Perhaps those directors have nice offers within their contracts, in the event of a takeover. Its fairly normal to get paid for failure, so there can’t be a problem with being paid for getting no results at all.

[bountyhunter] 08/12/2024 10:37

I guess that if they offer at least some of the four directors that came from Aviva jobs that might help facilitate DD. Even if they don't they will be motivated towards a speedy outcome with significant option holdings to crystallize at the offer price.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/12/2024 09:31

I do not see them closing the deal without a deep dive into the skeleton cupboard, that would be nuts and not how MnA is progressed, we know what was in there last time somebody looked and cancelled the dividend then put PJs head on a stick..

Audit 1st, make sure it all stacks up, proceed to closing.. :o)

[joe say] 08/12/2024 09:22

But surely that's all in the past and this could all be carried out post-acquisition with the same result

Identify what went wrong

Make sure controls/checks are in place to avoid repetition

And move on

Simple really

[smurfy2001] 07/12/2024 23:56

Good luck 👍

[wba1] 07/12/2024 22:11

I agree the timescale is tight for full due diligence but it is possible to focus on the main concerns. If I was Aviva my main focus (other than the usual core financials and material contracts) would be a decent audit of the large claims which caused the past problems. I would want to do a rapid audit of a representative sample of these claims from across the account and prior years. This would involve access to each claims file and interrogation of the operational claims management responsible for them. As this would take a while it is why I expect the announcement of going firm to be the week after next. If Aviva do not do such an audit they are fools - and that I do not believe.

[stevensupertrader] 07/12/2024 21:31

I am here to make a quick profit on this arbitrage opportunity therefore will not wait or hold for deal to complete . although there is some risk ie AV might pull out before 25 Dec or CMA might block this deal but the risk can be predicted .
However , Aviva will go ahead with the takeover offer as it has lots to gain further it won’t came out with a joint RNS last Friday . As for CMA , it would pass too as both Aviva and Direct Line have just about 20% of the market share and Admiral is pushed into second with 10 %. I would be worried if the market share is 40% or over . 20% is only one fifth and it won’t have too much of a dominant influence on prices and scuffle competition .imo

[smurfy2001] 07/12/2024 20:35

Stevensupertrader, so you'd sell out at 275p or hold on till the deal is done?

[smurfy2001] 07/12/2024 18:22

Easy money (hopefully) let's see.

[stevensupertrader] 07/12/2024 15:38

Adam Winslow and his team would still be running DLG after the merger through and even his turn around plan on DLG might be fulfilled . No proper due diligence can be carried out in a this short time frame for our information ,therefore Aviva needs Adam Winslow who already 6 months with DLG .

[stevensupertrader] 07/12/2024 15:27

Adam Winslow would definitely play a role in this merger deal due to the limited time frame for a proper due diligence on DLG to be carried out . This takeover deal is to me a ‘stitch’ up deal as DLG major shareholders wanted this merger to happened and won’t support a medium term turn around .
One can see that no RNS was out on the 2nd offer of £2.61 which was out on the 5th Dec ( Thursday late afternoon ) but then the next morning on the 6th Dec( last Friday)an improved 3rd offer of £2.75 was announced . Aviva and DLG came out to gave a joint RNS at 7am of the preliminary agreement agreed , Therefore between the afternoon 5Th Dec and the early morning of 6th Dec a closed door deal was shake hands .
.

[fenners66] 07/12/2024 15:01

wba1 got to agree with you about the auditors.

A lot of the work is done in India - about as far away from finding answers as they can get.
Its just a box ticking exercise nowadays - have we looked at the required sample size ? Tick?
Move on/move out , collect fee.

[wba1] 07/12/2024 13:29

StevenST; whilst I agree this is highly likely to proceed I will be surprised if it is confirmed in the coming week rather than w/c 16/12. They would have to cut a lot of corners to finish up in the data room in a week. Just saying so people avoid worrying if it does not happen in the coming week but I will be happy if it does.