Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[stevensupertrader] 07/12/2024 08:31

AV takeover of DLG will definitely pass CMA - Only a few days ago , CMA approved Vodaphone and Three merger and both these companies had 61% coverage of the mobile network. This deal to me is 99% sealed and done . imo .
Any fall in the DLG share price before the Aviva’s confirmation next week , is a golden opportunity to add.

[pete160] 07/12/2024 07:09

That was the indicative amount.The fixed amount is the conversion factor of 0.28xx a shares per dlg share.That said, the av. share price really needs to tank to make any marked difference to the bid price.

[carpingtris] 07/12/2024 04:14

Was it not based on a previous closing price, therefore what happens to AV. share price doesn't matter?

[pyemckay] 06/12/2024 22:15

bid now worth 272p on aviva price drop.

[jrphoenixw2] 06/12/2024 17:54

The price was in a tight channel today, Hi/Lo 257.8-249.20 [3.4%/mid].
Volume 27.5million vs average of 3.53million = 7.8*
Those two numbers are awkward bed-fellows, there were one minute periods today with up to 2million volume, yet the px barely shifted. Suspect there is stand-off between 'take the cash now and sell limit orders' vs pick up some more now at a discount to full-offer and carry the risk it falls through.

Interesting price chart, about as straight a line as I've seen in a while, especially with that large and spikey volume.

[hades1] 06/12/2024 17:22

True
Maybe just linked to Aviva drop post 1500 now 1.2% down on the day?
Creates a generous arbitrage opportunity?

[stevensupertrader] 06/12/2024 17:18

Nothing in this world to make money without any little risk - same as there is no free lunch .

[hades1] 06/12/2024 17:01

Also added 5000 just before close but auction was not encouraging.
Hoping it opens stronger on Monday.

[stevensupertrader] 06/12/2024 16:48

Who say so that you can’t buy 10000 DLG shares . I just bought at 15 seconds before closing another lot of 10000 shares at £2.50945 from ii for your information.
Even 100000 shares- ii will buy for you if you have the available funds in ii account.
Share Price is now in the bargain zone , although there is some risk but the risk is just due diligence which as I mentioned Adam Winslow would have sounded or blown his whistle and won’t last week said he thought the st offer was opportunistic and undervalue DLG and wanted the shareholders to back him for the turn around if there was hunky lanky in the books . Now that the offer is agreed and accepted by both parties - is just the due diligence that all takeover needed to undertake - to prove to the bankers and cover the AV CEO and the Board - imo

[hades1] 06/12/2024 16:41

Closed 10.4% below indicative offer.
Appalling auction yet again.
Realise deal’s not all signed and sealed but……?

[gilesy911] 06/12/2024 16:24

I meant to say 10000

[gilesy911] 06/12/2024 16:24

Can't buy 100000 on II

[hades1] 06/12/2024 15:58

Certainly is and building.
Maybe close once shorts are out?
Unusually large discount to offer.

[smurfy2001] 06/12/2024 15:53

Arbitrage trade.

[wba1] 06/12/2024 14:49

EdmondJ; hostile bids are, almost by definition, without access to the targets books. However they usually come with the caveat that the bid is subject to due diligence except, occasionally, where a bidding war occurs. This is not in that category. To suggest someone will bid for a company without due diligence is akin to proposing to buy a house (in this case a house with substantial past problems similar to subsidence) without a survey.

StevenST; I agree. Winslow would have to be completely incompetent to not have closed the big holes and would be mad to let a competitor in to find a major problem. It is the unexpected which sometimes bites in these processes. Issues being identified which the board are blissfully unaware of. I do not expect it but it is a factor in a risk discount. As for internal and external auditors. The internal people are usually behind any problem so that is not a reassurance. The external auditors have been shown time and again in other companies to have done a weak job. And the analysts who pour over results have as much understanding of insurance as they have of medieval English (in fact many will have a better understanding of the latter after a classics degree). I do not expect problems but it cannot be entirely discounted at this stage, hence the price.

[ukneonboy] 06/12/2024 14:14

The Aviva deal, a mix of cash, shares, and a small dividend, delivers a 73% premium to Direct Line’s pre-offer price, so nobody can really complain.

[ukneonboy] 06/12/2024 14:13

The Aviva deal, a mix of cash, shares, and a small dividend, delivers a 73% premium to Direct Line’s pre-offer price, so nobody can really complain.

[stevensupertrader] 06/12/2024 14:05

This period is due diligence and should be ok as DLG CEO was in his job since Feb/Mar therefore if anything fishy - he would have blown the whistle quick and loud , plus there are internal and external auditors combed through the books when H1 result was reported . This is just a routine formality of the takeover process - imo .

[edmondj] 06/12/2024 13:58

There have, historically, been many firm offers made - including hostile, above boards of directors that were subject to due diligence.

A possible hostile offer has never existed and by definition would be ridiculous.

[wba1] 06/12/2024 13:44

EdmondJ clearly does not understand the bid process. It would be a firm offer had DLG engaged with Aviva before now and opened the books (and other matters). Since they declined to engage any bid at this point is provisional as DLG will now make the information available to Aviva in a data room so that they can confirm that the basis on which they are making the bid is correct. This is nothing new. I have been in data rooms for possible bids and the process is pretty exhaustive which is why I expect it to take us close to the deadline before the bid is confirmed. It not only involves reviewing the financial reports but also involves a questioning process to get under the numbers. Additionally any material contracts, such as motability, will be reviewed. Most importantly I suspect, Aviva will want to interrogate operational management (not the board) on how things like claims reserves have been set and exactly what remediation action was taken (and the underlying assumptions) to close the black hole which led to Penny James leaving. And, of course, Aviva will be very interested to look at assets and valuations for things like Green Flag which are not part of their own core expertise.

[stevensupertrader] 06/12/2024 13:00

The actual cash portion of £1.347 represents about 48% ( or about half ) of the AV offer value . This is an extremely good deal - only 10 days ago - DLG share price was £1.52 . I have bought earlier 35000 shares at £2.522 and hope to make a killing as opportunity never come often
I sold earlier last week after the 1st offer at £2.282 and now even 24p more than I sold I think is an opportunity not to be missed . 😃

[stevensupertrader] 06/12/2024 12:40

The sweetener is the 5p cash dividend to be given prior to the completion so in fact the actual cash is £1.347 p ( £1.297 + 5p) .
Although the shares portion part of AV can fluctuate and can either increase or decrease the final total depending on AV share price at the time of conversion which cannot be determined and controlled ( in my view , AV share price would come down after the offer is agreed and signed by both parties) .

[edmondj] 06/12/2024 12:38

fenners666 Dec '24 - 11:09 - 1960 of 1962
0 0 1
EdmundJ was that post mostly your words ?
Or did you lift that from Socialist Worker or some such ?

*

Did provide a link which shows it was Ben Marlow's article in The Torygraph, lol.

[factsandfigures] 06/12/2024 12:19

£2.75 in a mixture of Cash, Aviva shares and a dividend seems a very fair price.

DLG shareholders should now accept the sweetened Offer.

We will be doing just that and others should follow our lead.

[factsandfigures] 06/12/2024 12:11

£2.75 in a mixture of Cash, Aviva shares and a dividend seems a very fair price.

DLG shareholders should now accept the sweetened Offer.

We will be doing just that and others should follow our lead.