Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 06/12/2024 07:26

It's virtually as good as an offer as the BoD have said they will recommend it. Just needs the formalities now, as I said there will be a small risk premium, I would anticipate this to quickly approach 270 approx. at the open but fluctuate depending on the value of the AV share component.

[value hound] 06/12/2024 07:23

Huge thanks from me to WBA1's excellent analysis and explanation - and sharing of trades.

[casino444] 06/12/2024 07:22

could another bidder come in now ?? statement says possible offer nothing signed

[prokartace] 06/12/2024 07:20

I suspect that we will open 265p .This is still not an offer. Price will fall back slowly during the day

[mister md] 06/12/2024 07:20

Yes looks great initially - though reached 350p post Covid - just shows you the state of the UK market ...

[bountyhunter] 06/12/2024 07:08

Yes I'll be very happy with 275p equivalent per share. We should see the price at the open approach that level with a small risk premium so probably just a few pence under 275p 🙂


275 pence per Direct Line share



to be delivered as:

o 129.7 pence per Direct Line share in cash, funded through Aviva's internally available cash resources;

o 0.2867 new Aviva shares per Direct Line share; and

o dividend payments of up to 5 pence per Direct Line share in aggregate (the "Permitted Dividend"), to be paid (subject to the approval of the Board of Direct Line) prior to completion.



This represents a premium of:

o 73.3% to the closing Direct Line share price on 27 November 2024 (being the last closing share price before the offer period commenced); and

o 49.7% to the six month volume-weighted average Direct Line share price to 27 November 2024.

[hades1] 06/12/2024 07:03

Deal done at 275p

[cyberian] 06/12/2024 00:15

As a holder in both I am inclined to take the 261p offer and thereby increase my holding in Aviva with a dividend growing at over 5% p.a, and currently yielding over 7%. The cash I will probably invest and add with LGEN if their price does not runaway after a strong rally on merit the last 2 days. They yield close to 8% so for me a win win. I hope that your gamble pays off in the event that Aviva fails to increase but decided late today to bank 50% of my holding in DLG which who knows may prove a safe and sensible move?

[t-trader] 06/12/2024 00:00

Aviva Nears Preliminary Deal With Direct Line After Bump

UK insurer said to sweeten offer again after £3.4 billion bid

Direct Line may announce Friday it’s inclined to recommend bid

[nellynell] 06/12/2024 00:00

One is called investing other is called gambling are you calling red or black? :-)

[cyberian] 05/12/2024 23:55

nellynell...so back to 160p and wait 3/4 years. Best wishes!

[nellynell] 05/12/2024 20:54

So an offer of 250p was highly opportunistic and substantially undervalued the company but 260p which is an extra 100m is enough from Amanda? No thank you Aviva dig deeper or its a no deal.

[bargainsniper] 05/12/2024 18:07

Deutsche also upgraded Aviva to 'buy' from 'hold' saying there is "more to come" regarding performance in 2025."We like the fundamentals at Aviva: (a) we estimate it will grow the EPS by 12% compound annual growth rate per annum over 2024-2026, (b) pricing actions of 2023-2024 are earning through into the General Insurance combined ratio, with niggles around Canada looking to be behind us, (c) operational improvements seem to be ongoing - e.g. being seen in the Wealth flows, acquisition synergies, and top-line growth momentum," it said.Separately, DB said it likes the Aviva bid for Direct Line. It sees this creating shareholder value from higher earnings along with future free cash flow growth.DB lifted its price target on

[pete160] 05/12/2024 18:00

There's been no rns to confirm an offer or even a revised proposal, but if dlg refused point blank to engage at 250p, it seems a waste of time av coming back with something like 261p. And particularly if any offer comprising, albeit a relatively small amount, of av equity doesn't factor in the inevitable softening in the av share price due to the increase in issued shares.

[carpingtris] 05/12/2024 17:47

If AV. have spoken to institutions then surely they'd have got a jist of at what price gets this done? Else why come back..

Maybe they ask 270 ... offer 260 from 250 to split difference... seems fair to me if indeed another offer made..

[wba1] 05/12/2024 17:35

One interesting point is that an increase of £100m is probably entirely funded (and perhaps a bit more) by the amount that would get released from claims reserves by revising the calculations from a minus 0.25% discount rate to plus 0.5%. However this does assume DLG had not already taken this benefit.

[jrphoenixw2] 05/12/2024 17:25

Extract of article from 3.40pm today:

(Bloomberg) -- Aviva Plc has increased its offer for Direct Line Insurance Group Plc to about £3.4 billion ($4.4 billion), days after its initial proposal to buy the UK motor insurer was rejected, people with knowledge of the matter said.

London-listed Aviva has made a fresh bid of about 261 pence per share as it seeks to convince Direct Line’s board to engage, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. The new proposal is about 4% higher than Aviva’s initial cash and stock proposal of 250 pence per share last week, which was rejected by Direct Line.

It’s unclear whether Aviva’s latest proposal will be enough to bring Direct Line to the negotiating table. Direct Line said last week that Aviva’s proposal was “highly opportunistic” and that its new leadership team would be able to deliver attractive growth.

Shares of Direct Line jumped as much as 7.7% on Thursday afternoon following the Bloomberg News report. The stock gained 0.3% as of 3:41 p.m. in London, giving the company a market value of about £3.1 billion. Aviva rose 1.2%.

Earlier this week, Berenberg increased its target price for Direct Line to 270 pence per share and said management sees a clear path to executing their strategic plan. Berenberg analysts wrote that Aviva has “ample capacity” to raise its bid, and said their base-case scenario is for an increased offer of 275 pence. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts have also written that Aviva might need to increase its bid to more than 275 pence in order to win approval from Direct Line’s board.

Deliberations are ongoing and there’s no certainty they will lead to a deal, the people said. A spokesperson for Aviva couldn’t immediately comment, while a representative for Direct Line declined to comment.

[stevensupertrader] 05/12/2024 17:12

Ageas Board has closed the book of DLG for your information.
However , if DLG major shareholders accept this 2nd Offer , there is still some juice left on this piece of meat 🥩 otherwise the piece of meat will be full of maggots I. No time and cannot be eaten .

[alex1621] 05/12/2024 17:04

The offer of 261p is only 4p higher than what Ageas were offering based on their share price today. So if they had a change of heart they could match Aviva's offer by adding 1.5% to their last final offer. At today's Ageas share price their offer is 257p.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/12/2024 17:02

We might get an after hours RNS, nothing showing at 1700 but see where we go tomorrow now.. :o)

Ageas only went up from 233 to 237 pence back in Feb, so +10 pence from Aviva to 260 pence (if accurate) is an improvement..

[stevensupertrader] 05/12/2024 16:53

As you can see at the close of trading AV share Prive increased so AV Board needs not actually pay more in REAL TERM as the increase in AV Share Price take care of this increase 2nd Offer of £3.4B - Happy Days for the AV Board and the CEO

[stevensupertrader] 05/12/2024 16:46

Would DLG Major shareholders Ie institutions and Pension Funds accept just 10p more , half of what they would be expecting Ie £2.70 ? If DLG Major shareholders won’t take half the bait , my guess is the shares will drop back quick and fast - this decision is solely down to the major shareholders .sad to tell all of you that Ageas is not coming back for another bite at this cheery .
Finger crossed - Good Luck Folks.
Don’t have sleepless nights for this as is out of your control as a small shareholders - you just a number in this game for your information . 😆

[tuftymatt] 05/12/2024 16:27

I agree it's a 10p increase to 260

Not what I was expecting as I thought 270 would come in but it is what it is.
AV. share price dipped then bounced so the market seems happy from that point of view.

Can't see the board changing their stance for an extra 10p but maybe it's enough to get a clear 3rd and final offer message out to Aviva.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[uppompeii] 05/12/2024 16:10

Av. fell back at the same time of that spike up here.

[stevensupertrader] 05/12/2024 16:02

AV is launching a second bid offer of £3.4B an increase of £3.3b an increase of £ 100m
- from my calculation £2.50p
To about £2.60p - any thought!