Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[huckers] 05/12/2024 15:57

hades1. If true, that looks weaker than many expected and I may just have been very fortunate with that price spike.

[huckers] 05/12/2024 15:54

No! I will hold the funds in reserve. I think DLG is a good fit for Aviva if the deal goes through (which I expect it to but there's always a risk it won't) and I will monitor the AV price and look to add to my holding there on weakness.

Glad to be out. Had little faith in the DLG management, which might be unfair.

[prokartace] 05/12/2024 15:47

Nice Huckers. Buying back?

[huckers] 05/12/2024 15:45

I had a bunch of limit orders triggered and I am fully out now 251p. Fairly pleased with that!

[prokartace] 05/12/2024 15:45

Yes, genuine. Not normally that lucky. Bought back at 235p

[801710245] 05/12/2024 15:42

prok,

It was weird - I was watching the monitor 'live' and it whooshed-up to £2.55 in the blink on an eye - I assumed news of an improved bid, had landed. But then the share price re-traced - almost as rapidly. I'm surprised you were able to get a quote during those turbulent few moments - well done if you're genuine.

[prokartace] 05/12/2024 15:34

Sold 1/2 my holding at 243p into that weird rally. Fat finger maybe?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/12/2024 13:28

AV ticking up, so our share price while subject to their pegged 0.282 share offer with 112.5 pence should tick up with it, which it seems to be doing, while they consider and hopefully come up with a better 2nd offer.. :o)

[pete160] 04/12/2024 22:02

Jubber, you would be an ideal choice for a risk averse, steady as they go, insurance posting.
Just down from this thread is one from 2019 where you were advocating caution and sitting on the fence, something which you've seemingly copied and pasted every day since :-)

[city1911] 04/12/2024 20:13

I would be very surprised if their limit was the first bid. Surely two bids minimum.

[carpingtris] 04/12/2024 20:06

Think that seemed a given now the question is will AV. come back and at what price?

Be surprised if they only had the one price in mind.

[city1911] 04/12/2024 20:02

Latest article in the FT stating that the major DLG shareholders agree with the board not to engage with Aviva unless the bid is increased

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/12/2024 17:34

Strong UT, 3M shares matched at 236.8 pence.. :o), bodes well for the morning, and wait to see when/if AV come back with another better offer..

[carpingtris] 04/12/2024 17:27

Decent rise today into the close.. could it mean anything?

[wba1] 04/12/2024 16:50

I have only just noticed the change in the discount rate announced on Monday - from minus 0.25% to plus 0.5%. This does make a material difference to the calculations for fixing compensation for major injuries and will particularly benefit motor insurers where such injuries are a significant part of claims liabilities. As the large insurer whose motor account is the highest % of its total account DLG obtains the most benefit. The question is whether it was already pricing in anticipation of this change and whether its reserving for large claims already reflects this change. If it does then the benefit is already taken, if not then it gives an opportunity for both price shaving and to release some claims reserves when they are recalculated for the change. The latter scenario would also imply additional value embedded in the claims reserves for a bidder.

[jubberjim] 04/12/2024 10:32

Could have been a lot worse

I might have been nominated

Chin up everybody

[huckers] 04/12/2024 10:04

For that reason alone I won't touch PHNX.

Thanks for the heads up!

[wba1] 04/12/2024 09:14

A bit of light relief this morning. Phoenix Group has announced the retirement of a NED who is Risk Committee chair ..... and boasted they have replaced him with Mark Gregory, who is on the DLG board and has been there all the way through the Penny James debacle. Apparently they considered Liz Truss as well.

[nellynell] 03/12/2024 21:43

Analysts at Berenberg reckon the saga surrounding a possible Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LSE:DLG) takeover has a few more chapters left.

The motor and home insurer confirmed last week that it had turned down a bid tabled by Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.), saying it was "highly opportunistic and substantially undervalued the company".

FTSE 100-listed Aviva’s offer valued Direct Line at 250p per share.

It was the second bidder that Direct Line has rebuffed this year, having rejected Belgian giant Ageas earlier in March.

According to Berenberg, Aviva could up its proposal to 275p per share, a 76% premium to the undisturbed share price.

This would value Direct Line at 10.2 times its projected 2026 earnings.

Berenberg analysts noted that Aviva could support a higher bid by reducing its group liquidity to £1 billion, suspending its share buyback for 2025, and modestly increasing leverage.

Berenberg also raised the prospect of a possible counteroffer from Ageas, which could revisit the Direct Line acquisition after its original bid was withdrawn earlier this year.

Ageas could table an offer of 265p per share, said analysts.

However, they said that Ageas's strategic synergies with Direct Line are less compelling than those Aviva could achieve, given Aviva's dominant UK market position in motor and home insurance.

As it stands, Berenberg has a 270p price target on Direct Line shares against a current spot price of 230p.

[cyberian] 03/12/2024 17:56

bountyhunter. SPOT ON!

[bountyhunter] 03/12/2024 17:53

If I was in Aviva's position I would wait for the dust to settle before increasing the offer sometime before 25/12.

[cyberian] 03/12/2024 17:50

The Aviva potential offer may die/abandoned is a strong possibility with Institutions. With the crossover of mutual holdings a higher offer may ironically be against the latter's interest. It is possible that the current "potential" offer maybe the best, and a counter bidder will not be chased. Very interesting next few weeks!

[nellynell] 03/12/2024 17:07

A 2% drop is substantial?? Lol

[stevensupertrader] 03/12/2024 15:12

A point to note - if AV Share Price fall back substantially around 2%, it makes the deal Ie another offer less likely .
Watch the space
Good Luck Folks