Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[stevensupertrader] 03/12/2024 14:42

DLG small shareholders want the takeover done asap as share price for the last two days have fallen back and are very anxious and can’t stand anymore this hair pulling agony and can get heart attack , however major shareholders are not so keen unless AV offer is increased by at least another 20p as they can wait for the new CEO turnaround plan. Major shareholders are usually big institutions and pension funds and they invest for medium to long term .
Good Luck small shareholders , enjoy this rollercoaster ride and hold on tight 😆 😆

[careful] 03/12/2024 14:41

We are all short term in our thinking.

It will take a few years for Aviva to reap the benefits of this deal.
Yet here we are looking at the share price of both companies on an hourly basis.

There are no long term investors anymore the prices are too volatile.
We have to be fleet of foot or get crushed.

I dithered about offloading housebuilder Vistry at about £14 and paid the price.
Down to a little over £6 in 2 months.

You snooze you lose.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/12/2024 14:20

#GaryCook, it is indeed, the BVIC bid I have done alright on so far, took my profits and it has not gone anywhere since..

With a cash and share offer, the value is pegged to the offeror share price price, so 0.282 AV share multiple could be worth more over the 6 months by completion and we could still get the FY dividend here in May..

US/EURO paper is not my preferred for the WHT or FX potential losses, but LSE-AV paper is fine and the 7% with it..

Pull your finger out AB.. :o)

[nellynell] 03/12/2024 14:20

Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on Direct Line Insurance from 215.0p to 270.0p on Tuesday following Aviva's non-binding 250.0p per share offer for the group.

Berenberg said Aviva's takeover bid showed there was "clear interest" for the company from the UK's largest insurer. However, Direct Line's response that the offer was "opportunistic "made it believe that management sees "a clear path" to the execution of its strategic plan and that this may be potentially quicker than first planned.

The German bank believes that the UK motor insurance market is set for consolidation and that this will likely lead to higher and less volatile margins through the cycle.

Berenberg thinks that Aviva has the ability to pay more and still generate upside for its shareholders, given its roughly 11% market share in UK motor insurance and an approximately 14% share in UK home insurance.

In addition to the increased target price, Berenberg also reiterated its 'hold' rating on the stock.

[tuftymatt] 03/12/2024 11:59

Yeah it's a tough call to hang in there or jump ship that's for sure.

I have had this one, RMG and AAL this year all have takeover talk and to be honest I don't think I played any of them all that well!!

The main thing is has money been made when all is said I done I guess. If the answer is yes then that's ok as no one can ever nail these things with certainty.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[garycook] 03/12/2024 11:57

Patience is a virtue !!!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/12/2024 10:50

Not an easy call, perhaps top slice 50% into the next spike IF one arrives, but the best value will come from seeing any bid through to completion, I royally missed the boat selling out of SMDS after their IP bid earlier this year at 400 pence only to watch it go to 600 pence and it still smarts.. :o)

[huckers] 03/12/2024 10:16

tuftymat. I think a fair few investors feel that way. I am being patient for now.

[tuftymatt] 03/12/2024 10:14

I trimmed into strength last week and think a second offer will push the share price past 240.

Expectation is the total price in shares / cash would be worth 270 meaning there is a decision to be had in letting things play out or jump ship and move on.

Had I not gone through, like most here, what happened in the spring then I would see it out but now I think I may jump with a very nice return and move on.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[huckers] 03/12/2024 09:59

Personally, I don't want to give current management the time - I don't have much faith in them! So, my own plan, is await the second offer (I am confident one will be forethcoming) and sell at whatever the share price adjusts to. I'll accept a discount to the bid offer so I can reinvest capital as I wish (which might be AV stock at some point).

Thanks for everyones view.

Edit. I am expecting a second offer of 265-270p. That's a guess. Think it is the fair middle ground for both sets of owners.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/12/2024 09:51

#Huckers, the deadline may be 25th, but market hours should dictate 12 noon XME 24th, how soon the bid arrives firmed up and/or improved we will have to wait and see, I have not sold any yet either..

My view FWIW, if a bid of 265/275 pence arrives, keep hold and convert into AV stock when it moves to a corporate action, IF it gets rejected, we now know that 2 bidders came in with valuations of 237, 250 pence, far higher than the market did before at 155/160 pence, the newly assembled leadership firmly believe they can do better for shareholders over time and take it higher than the bids received..

The risk is how far might it pull back if a bid is rejected, how long will it take to turn around or show green shoots in results, and how many dividends could be missed elsewhere by waiting for it..?

Or it goes hostile and the BOD do not get a say in it..?

[skinny] 03/12/2024 09:49

FWIW :- Berenberg raises Direct Line price target to 270 (215) pence - 'hold'

[carpingtris] 03/12/2024 09:44

I think they might need to get this sorted earlier as surely they won't want to be having meetings etc. on the run up to Xmas especially as people might go on leave early? So I think sooner rather than later.

[huckers] 03/12/2024 09:33

Any informed views on the timing of Aviva's likely improved second offer?

I know the deadline is the 25th but will the approaching festive season and bankers/advisors holidays bring it closer?

[pete160] 02/12/2024 22:46

Given the money raised from the completely cancelled dividend - and also the funds from the sale of their commercial insurance interests, it was the last set of results and the lack of confidence in a quick turnaround and return to a decent dividend, which has sealed dlg's fate and attracted these bids.

[neilyb675] 02/12/2024 20:13

several questions there.....I have one too, what will be the lotto numbers this Wednesday ?

[sufc555] 02/12/2024 19:22

What will happen to AV’s share price when the deal is concluded? Noting the dilution.
Will DLG announce its results in March 25 if the deal awaits approval? Can they pay a divi ?

[wba1] 02/12/2024 14:33

I have never seen the problem with an increased offer based on more Aviva shares. As long as it represents an increase just sell your DLG shares in the market before the takeover happens if you do not want to hold more AV shares.

[stevensupertrader] 02/12/2024 13:56

In the very short term , AV Share Price will go up as you can see today , thus making the turndown offer looks even more attractive without doing anything.
Likely the second offer by AV should it happened before X’mas , would be more AV shares rather than cash imo

[careful] 02/12/2024 13:47

Too soon to up the offer, the art of the deal and all of that.

I have a larger holding in Av than my smaller holding in DLG.

Apparently many institutions are in the same position.

If the current offer is excepted it would be optimum for me, but if Aviva are prepared to overpay then my DLG holding acts as an hedge.

The problem is often the personal position of the DLG directors. "What is in it for me"? is the big question they ask.

A hostile BID and going direct to the shareholders could prevent the directors from declining a full fair offer.

[stevensupertrader] 02/12/2024 13:33

AV CEO is testing the water as last week , she has sounded to DLG major shareholders of her intention but today after the weekend DLG Share Price drops back and this indicates the sounding was not 💡 so she needs either to shut up and walk away or up the offer to sway the DLG shareholders that she meant business . There is a saying STRIKE WHILE THE IRON IS HOT !!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/12/2024 13:10

1st AV offer on 19th, declined 27th, now under the takeover code they have to firm up, come back higher or walk away before 25th December..

Under the code 2.2(a), (when an announcement is required) when a firm intention to make an offer is notified to the board of the offeree company by or on behalf of an offeror, irrespective of the attitude of the board to the offer..

So AV will report before DLG do on/if they go with a round 2 bid raise (or not), there are sub clauses to 2.2 which trigger a DLG obligation to also report, but I was looking for who has to declare 1st..

See what the week brings with it .. :o)

[huckers] 02/12/2024 12:22

I agree. I do not have much faith in the management to turn this around and for the share price to climb in time beyond the takeover offer. For me, a second offer at 265p will see me sell all my shares at whatever the share price adjusts to.

[alex1621] 02/12/2024 11:56

An offer over 270p would be fine by me. Even better if Ageas re-enter the fray. The Ageas share price has climbed 20% or so this year so the paper offer is worth more than in March. I'd rather sell out than wait for AW to turn it around.