Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 30/11/2024 09:57

The revolving recruitment door is a disgrace. All the years of teambuilding courses that employees are sent on, mean nothing if a top team ends up formed of corporate clones.

I hadn’t noticed that 4 were from AV.

[bountyhunter] 30/11/2024 09:08

Yes LLB I agree it's possible that AW could simply be building his team, although it's certainly a big coincidence at least that four of the top jobs are taken by former AV senior employees. My guess is that a slightly improved offer will go through, and hopefully be accepted by the BoD by Xmas!

I'm would also be happy to receive AV shares with a 7% yield in exchange for DLG shares yielding 2% (plus some cash as well)!

[zimbtrader] 29/11/2024 22:32

I firmly believe DLG will fall this time. Aviva would not, ever, have gone in at 250 believing for a second it would be accepted. Call it an opening shot if you will. I suspect the offer will be sweetened to 265 which will be good enough for me. Above 273 worries me from the perspective of also being an AV. shareholder.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 22:00

#Bountyhunter, I spotted that list in the City AM article posted, we only knew the CEO/CFO but the others coming in (not yet started) were yet to be announced..

It would be a twist if they were Trojans Amanda sent in with a strategy of picking off DLG soon after with some helping hands, seems convenient as they were all AV key players, the flip side to that is AW is simply building his team out with people he knows to be competent, likes and trusts..

See what next week/month brings, but things are stacking up, happy to take AV stock in PX if available.. :o)

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 20:33

In any investment or any form of gambling ( eg . horses , dogs or casino) - until one sold the shares completely or out of the race course or the door of the casino - one can then able to say whether in profit or lost. For me I surely can say I am definitely in Profit however if you still hanging on , you cannot say this although at the close of today trading , you are still in profit but no one can 100% tell on Monday start of trading, Pal 😆 !!!

[carpingtris] 29/11/2024 20:17

Maybe lose the word 'super'.
Because if you'd have stayed rather than sold yesterday or whenever you'd have got a better price today.

Just saying.

Then again a profit is a profit just not a 'super' one.

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 20:10

Peter156. = Pete160

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 20:07

Peter 156,
I am not negative but just pointing out the facts . I still interested to read what some of you still spin the news on all angles just to convince yourself and this makes me smile 😃

[city1911] 29/11/2024 19:58

Presumably Aviva would keep the brand names? Direct Line, Churchill etc and just be all underwritten by Aviva?

[carpingtris] 29/11/2024 19:52

Article FT two hours ago... behind a paywall though if I try a link.

'What next in Aviva’s bid for Direct Line?'

I found by searching Direct line on Google then going news..

[pete160] 29/11/2024 19:33

Steven,ST you posted here yesterday or the day before that you had completely sold out of dlg, so why do you now care what happens to dlg and those of us still invested here? Let alone, why be so negative!?

[bountyhunter] 29/11/2024 18:49

That's interesting LLB, I'd only spotted the top two myself, it's tempting to think of them as Trojan horses ;-) ...especially as the top two at least have plenty of options, which would normally become exercisable at the bid price in the event of a successful bid!

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 18:01

I don’t see you point that if the 4 top personnel originally moved from Aviva and joined DLG , a takeover by Aviva , these 4 personnel would find themselves out of a job very soon as Aviva clearly indicated by combining , it can saved millions. No wonder the CEO and CFO fiercely resisted the takeover . In the eyes of Aviva , these 4 that left to join DLG are ‘traitors ‘.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 17:45

Direct Line CEO, CFO, COO and chief risk officer have all recently joined from Aviva, only 2 have started so far, they could all find themselves back under AV control sooner than expected.. :o)

Strong UT here, 234.8 pence and 3.5M matched, round 2 of bids next week..?

[wba1] 29/11/2024 15:42

SteveST; as I have previously disclosed I top sliced 25% of my holding yesterday which gives me a free ride on the rest unless the price goes back below where it was before the bid. I have also disclosed my activities both at the time of the Ageas bid and since and have had a very good return. I appreciate that those who bought when it was at 300 may have a more jaundiced view.

My understanding of this situation is simply based on having worked at director level in an insurer for many years, having seen Blanc in action at Towergate and having been part of a company that was taken over by NU(as Aviva was then known) many years ago. I am not a shares expert but I do know insurance. I may be wrong in all I say and if so I apologise - but you would have made good money if you had followed my trades on DLG (but not on stocks outside insurance!). DLG are simply a dog that will be put out of its misery by either Aviva or someone else. My preference would be, as with Ageas, to get out before an Aviva retreat and have another pop at this when the next bidder appears but I suspect Aviva will succeed. This situation is unusually simple. DLG are the only UK retail general insurer (other than the niche Sabre) available. They are mortally wounded but retain some decent assets as well as a large account. It is just a case of who gets them, when and how many bites we get at the takeover cherry.

[huckers] 29/11/2024 15:10

That's utterly meaningless. Every time there is a trade, someone buys and a counterparty sells (or vice versa).

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 15:07

Today trading has 3 times more sold shares than bought shares - this gives an indication of where DLG is heading .
Never build castle in the air ,obviously , there is a saying GREATER THE RISK GREATER THE PROFIT

[huckers] 29/11/2024 15:03

I haven't sold a share. I have confidence this is an unfolding story and we will see support behind a second bid once Aviva announce it.

(Not advice!)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/11/2024 14:59

No big sellers have printed offloading (TR1), so the institutions must have confidence in a 2nd bid coming from AV, or a follow up bid from AGS..

The share is still being bought into this afternoon so is it a hold over the weekend and roll the dice..? .. :o)

[stevensupertrader] 29/11/2024 14:58

Wba1 - don’t get carried away , the rug will soon be pull underneath from you and leave investors hanging in mid air .This sudden 70% increase of DLG Share Price before the announcement of Aviva takeover offer from £1.587 to £2.32 to me is based on the on one word ‘HOPE ‘ that Aviva would increase the offer . Already at the current price of £2.32 ( Ie all cash ) is better than the part cash and part share by
Aviva offer in my view .

[jubberjim] 29/11/2024 13:15

I will repeat here what I have said on an Aviva thread.

There should be a stewards into how this turn of events came about.

I have nothing to moan about have dug myself out of a rather nasty hole and am much better placed but think questions need to be asked.

'Openness and full disclosure' seem to have been lost in this instance.

Best of luck to all

[wba1] 29/11/2024 13:04

StevenST; a rather surprising interpretation. Anyone who has sat in a takeover team knows that it is a dance where the only objective is to find terms which work for both sides. No CEO goes into it without some flexibility. The point is that Aviva may well be prepared to sweeten the offer to say 260 because why walk away for that amount when you have spent a fortune on preparation and advisors and failure for that amount would damage both Aviva and Blanc, but they would almost certainly walk away if the big shareholders insisted on 300.

Obviously at the bottom of all this is what Aviva could extract. The capital benefits have been well covered in the press. The synergies are likely to be rather higher than the £150m cited. After some integration a 4% saving on the expense ratio of the added DLG business seems trivial. They should be able to double that. What seems to have been ignored is two other things;
* the pricing benefit. DLG seem to have been incompetent in this respect whilst the Aviva team is well regarded. There should be segments of the DLG book which Aviva can improve with their expertise.
* claims reserves. The black hole here was, of course, the reason for the implosion. If they are now back to industry normal levels then there is real value sat in those reserves as the norm is to carry a 5% margin over best estimate when initially set.
I do not know where the Aviva top price sits or if they are prepared to really go hostile but one thing I am sure of. Aviva can extract much more than Ageas so it is easy to see why they have entered at this level. From the DLG side they must know their future is done, either now or soon. I wonder if they are sounding out any potential alternatives like Allianz (and I would not call them white knights as the only way they stay as the current operation is via a private equity takeover like Esure and that ain't likely given the added benefits to a trade buyer.

[redbaron10] 29/11/2024 12:45

Interesting that Gloldman Sachs has switched sides to advise Aviva on their offer after helping DLG defend against the previous Ageas offer.